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Jefferies - Overpaid How ?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by kmav23, May 8, 2010.

  1. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    Matt Barnes trying to guard Kobe or LeBron would be a complete joke. And he shot a whopping 32% from 3's this year.

    Please try again.
     
  2. don grahamleone

    don grahamleone Contributing Member

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    6. Learn to use the correct term: "past".
     
  3. Kwame

    Kwame Contributing Member

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    Lol, well since you now wanna look at the numbers, go look at them across the board. While you're at it, go look at Pietrus's and Afllalo's #s too, and also look at their salaries. These guys guard elite wings as well. Thanks!
     
  4. RudyTBag

    RudyTBag Contributing Member
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    It's like living with a six-year old...

    Your problem lies in your ability to grasp advanced statistics.

    Need I go further?

    As far as advanced statistics go, Shane Battier puts up comparable numbers to all-stars. Daryl Morey's entire regime has been based on such, and he has the numbers to back it up. Maybe you should check out that book on advanced statistics that came out a little while back, that had, If I recall correctly, an entire chapter dedicated to Shane Battier. Moneyball would be a good read for you as well I expect. Get back to me when you have trimmed the hedges on your statistical analysis...

    "For instance, from a sidebar to Friedman's main article, here's some background into how it is the Rockets came to trade red-hot prospect Rudy Gay for Shane Battier:

    Here's a small glimpse at what they saw: When Battier was on the court, his team

    Scored more
    Rebounded better
    Fouled less
    Allowed fewer points
    Shot better
    Decreased their opponent's shooting percentage
    In other words, he was exactly the type of player the numbers said they had to have.

    "He definitely stood out in all the methods we use," says Morey. "He's someone who creates a large margin over who he's guarding. In the NBA, it's not how many points you score, it's what you do with each time down the floor. And when Shane uses a possession, it's always a high number of points are scored. And when Shane's guarding someone, not many points are scored when the other team uses the possession on the other end of the floor. When he played versus not over his years in Memphis, the team was about eight points per game better, a very significant margin."

    What we're getting from this is that Battier is doing "the little things." Or "playing smart." Or, essentially, doing the things that win basketball games -- whatever they are -- but don't show up in the traditional box score."


    All truths are half truths...(Especially your truths)
     
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  5. don grahamleone

    don grahamleone Contributing Member

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    I declare knote32 the winner.
     
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  6. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    LOL at Pietrus. Pietrus gets paid $5.3 millon, just $1.6 mil less than Battier.

    -He averages 8.7 ppg and shot 38% from 3, both comparable to Battier.
    -His fg% is higher, 43% to 40% for Battier, but his ft% is lower. He shoots only 63% while Battier shoots 75% at the line.
    -He is a slightly worse rebounder than Battier.
    -He is a MUCH worse passer than Battier. Battier had an assist ratio of 22.7 while Pietrus' was a whopping 7.0.
    -He had a higher turnover rate than Battier
    -His PER and TS% were comparable.
    -He fouls too much- he had the 14th highest foul rate among small forwards.

    Considering that Battier is an elite defender while Pietrus is not, I EASILY take Battier.

    As far as Afflalo, he is similar statwsise to Battier except he scores a little more, passes worse, and rebounds less. Like Battier, he can't create his own shot. One huge flaw is Afflalo fouls way too much, something Battier doesn't do.

    But there is no way Afflalo is a better defender than Battier. He is only 6'5", so he is not nearly as effective against 3's. Yes, he is cheaper, but he is still on a rookie contract. Afflalo on LeBron would be an utter joke.

    So, in conclusion, you fail again, Kwame.
     
    #46 Mr. Clutch, May 10, 2010
    Last edited: May 10, 2010
    1 person likes this.
  7. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    lol Kwame came out of his hole.

    There must be multiple Battier threads in the GARM.
     
  8. Kwame

    Kwame Contributing Member

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    You're the one posting one-liners, smileys, and pictures.

    You're going to talk to me about advanced statistics? Lol. Maybe you can take the title of "Official Clutchfans Statistical Genius" from JCDenton...haha.

    Tell me what you want to talk about. Do you want to talk about r squared, standard error of the estimate, ANOVA tests, coeffecients, heteroskedacity, autocorrelation, etc...?

    Yes, you do.

    Wow, I don't even think the blindest Battier supporter would say this.

    Show me the evidence, please. Especially since Battier was outplayed by Matt Harpring in the 2007 NBA Playoffs.

    Remember if you make a claim, the burden of proof is on you to back it up. If you can't, then it's baseless...like most of your posts.

    Unless you have access to these numbers and can demonstrate how Battier "puts up comparable numbers to all stars," this is all nothing but speculation on your part. Data is easily manipulated in order for it to conform to a preexisting theory. Any elementary statistician knows this.

    You sound like you're the one that needs an introductory course on statistics.

    How come Battier couldn't help the Memphis Grizzlies win a playoff game in their entire history?

    The delusional Battier fans, like knote32, love to talk about how much Memphis won while Battier was there and how much they lost after he left, but when you bring up how they've never won a playoff game in their history, those same blind supporters are quick to absolve Shane of any blame. That is circular logic at its finest. Here's another favorite tactic of theirs: If he has tangible success on the court, they're quick to point to the same box score they love to demonize and tell everybody how great he played. If he doesn't show up in the box score, those same people will say that you can't measure his impact that way, it's all about the intangibles. Thus, in their mind, Battier can never have a bad game. They will justify his performance one way or another. Again, that logic is so circular that the room starts spinning. Then they like to get real abstract and talk about advanced statistics when they know nothing about that sorta stuff. Therefore, they just regurgitate a few random quotes and throw in the Michael Lewis NY Times article, and they think they've made some type of case for Battier. It's actually quite pathetic. I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

    "WIN NOW MODE" since 2006!


    If you're going to lecture me about quantitative methodology, please let me know what software you use in analyzing statistics in coming to your conclusions. Thanks!

    Also, since you're apparently such an expert on statistics, why don't you post some of these models so we can analyze them for ourselves instead of you relying on the thoughts and ideas of others. Please post some of these models or enlighten us by telling your fellow posters what the independent and dependent variables are in the analysis. Is it a multi-variate regression model or just a bi-variate one?

    Conversely, you can just admit that you don't know what the hell you're talking about. I'll let it slide since you seem to get emotional on this issue.

    Honestly, do you even know what models the Rockets use or are you just putting together quotes to try and make yourself look knowledgeable? Do they use 82games.com or is it something else? I would expect you to know since you're ostensibly so informed and well-versed on the topic of advanced statistics while I apparently am "unable to grasp" this sorta stuff. Don't hold out on us knote32.

    Also, please explain to us why the majority of role players who have similar roles and functions for their team as Battier are acquired via free agency/minor transactions and aren't overpaid like Shane?

    What about being unable to dribble a basketball? What about being unathletic? What about being unable to create for yourself and others? What about hanging out in the corner on offense while your defender just rests or wreaks havoc on the court while you continue to just stand there? What about being unable to post up players that are 6 to 7 inches shorter than you? How do you suggest we measure all this stuff? What about not improving any facet of your game since entering the league?

    Do you or the Rockets even include this type of information in the quantitative models? Don't you think a professional basketball player, especially a wing player who starts and plays over 30 mpg, should be able to dribble a basketball effectively?

    You sound like a classic case of somebody being brainwashed by propaganda. You should brush up on your critical thinking skills, it will be useful to you later on in life. You should probably take a course in statistics as well. As it stands now, you're trying to hype up an overpaid and rapidly declining basketball player who had no business being traded for the 7th overall pick in the 2006 nba draft.


    He still gets paid less and was acquired via free agency. Nobody can really stop LBJ, but do you remember all the praise everybody was giving him after the Magic beat the Cavs last year in the Eastern Conference Finals? He also didn't disappear offensively like Shane does and came through in the clutch unlike Battier during the post-season. His play against the Celtics in game 7 at Boston and his solid play on both ends during the Cavs series are some examples. Orlando didn't need to trade a lottery pick to get him or Barnes either.

    You didn't have to post all these stats, because I had already told you that their numbers were comparable. Remember the differences though: You have to actually guard Pietrus, he gets paid less, and was acquired through free agency.

    This is the fatal flaw in your logic. I don't even think his most ardent supporters believe this. If he's such an elite defender, how come he's never made an all-nba defensive first team? As a matter fact he's only made the second team time twice. Hardly the resume of an "elite" defender. Coincidentally, he's done better in the dpoy voting than all-nba defensive selections, because the former is voted on by the media (which loves to hype him up) while the latter is voted on by coaches.

    Here's the stark truth: He never was an elite defender and he certainly isn't one now. At one point in time, he was a good team defender, but that certainly isn't a difficult trait to find in this league. You're just making yourself look silly by claiming that Battier is an elite defender.

    Didn't I already tell you their numbers were similar?

    He did well most of the time when they played against the Lakers while he was guarding Kobe. I think Battier on LeBron would be an utter joke.

    [/QUOTE]So, in conclusion, you fail again, Kwame.[/QUOTE]

    Lol, you're claiming that Shane Battier is an elite defender and you have the audacity to say I fail? Haha, that's too much. I would caution you to think with less emotion and use more rational thought when discussing this issue. BTW, Battier is still way overpaid and extremely over-hyped, and he's not an elite defender. So if anybody has failed here, it's you.
     
  9. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    LOL, at "having to guard Pietrus." You act like he's an offensive juggernaut or something when the dude averages 8 ppg. And how the heck is Battier "way overpaid" when you rave about Pietrus who is statistically similar and gets paid almost as much?

    Battier is an elite defender, dude, I don't know how to prove it to you. Hollinger considers Battier elite, and he knows way more than you do.

    Everyone is raving about Artest's defense in LA and Battier was clearly better than him on D when he was here.
     
  10. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    Nobody can stop Kobe and Lebron. But I sure would rather have Battier on them than Michael Pietrus and Aarron Afflalo.

    I mean, give me a freaking break here.
     
  11. Kwame

    Kwame Contributing Member

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    Most objective posters here realize that Battier is, more or less, offensively impotent. He mainly likes to hang out in the corner and shoot threes. His defender usually just rests or wreaks havoc on the court while he continues to just stand there. This is what I meant by you have to at least guard Pietrus. Have you not been watching the playoffs for the last couple of years? Pietrus will do other things offensively that Battier can't or won't do. He has the ability to take people off the dribble, he can finish well at the basket, he's explosive, and slashes. He's also averaging double figures the past two post seasons and shooting over 50% from 3 this post season (since you like to bring up 3 point shooting percentage so much).

    Also, looking at the 2010-2011 season, Battier is going to get paid almost 30% more than Pietrus. To me that is statistically significant.

    It's obvious you don't. But you're the one making the claim, so the burden of proof is on you. If you can't back it up, then your claim is worthless. You need to face reality and accept that Batter is not an elite defender.

    The old "he knows way more than you line" I thought you would be able to do better than that. There's no point in having a bbs on basketball if people are going to reply like this. I can do the same as well, but we won't get anywhere.

    Nevertheless, you can keep relying on the media, but the coaches have already passed judgment on Battier's defense. I'll repost this once again for you:

    If he's such an elite defender, how come he's never made an all-nba defensive first team? As a matter fact he's only made the second team time twice in career. Hardly the resume of an "elite" defender. Coincidentally, he's done better in the dpoy voting than all-nba defensive selections.

    Remember that the former is voted on by the media (which loves to hype him up) while the latter is voted on by coaches.

    I know. I already said this.

    I don't think there's much of a difference. At this point in their careers, I would take the latter two over Battier.

    Hey, I gotta an idea! Lets make a thread and grade the performances of the Rockets and give them all As! Then we can criticize people who aren't homers and question their fanhood because they dare to critique the super-inflated grades we've given the team. Oh damn, I just remembered that you've already done that.
     
  12. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    No joke, I had literally busted out laughing at least 3 times before I got through chapter 6 of that novel you just wrote.

    My favorite part was when you listed a bunch of probability statistics vocabulary, that any kid in college would know, to suggest you had mastered it when none of that has anything to do with advanced basketball stats which he was referencing.

    Please treat us with a sequel because I really enjoyed the first one. Its like watching Fox news, only a little more absurd.
     
  13. cuddie

    cuddie Member

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    Fantastic thread derailment.

    If I may weigh in on this, I'd like to point out that while Kwame's views are not popular in the least bit, he possesses the ability to support them and deals with responses in a relatively objective manner. The same cannot be said for his opponents in this thread, so while I may not necessarily agree with all of his views I'd have to say that his systematic dismantling of your counter-arguments was quite impressive.

    AS MASTER CHAMPION RULER OF CLUTCHFANS DEBATE, I DECLARE KWAME THE VICTOR

    Also, cool story bro
    Also, Sura faints
     
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  14. sealclubber1016

    Supporting Member

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    Shane Battier isn't a good defender, he's a spectacular defender. His on the ball defense is great, but his rotation and defensive fundamental are ridiculous. It's no surprise their defense fell apart this year when he got hurt. His last 3 years in Memphis they went to the playoffs, after they traded him they won 22 games. Now of course he's not fully responsible for that, but it's not a complete coincidence.

    As for his offense, he is a lot better in this offense than Ariza. Ariza is the offensive liability because people sag off him to help. People can't sag off Battier because he will knock down the shot. Ariza is a better creater, but this team doesn't need any more creaters.

    I think both players are under-valued by the fans, but Battier is better. Coaches aren't playing this guy big minutes out of the goodness of their hearts, they play him because he helps them win. 5 different NBA coaches have decided he was worthy of big playing time.
     
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  15. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!
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    Can I get a witness from the congregation !!

    Amen !

    DD
     
  16. RudyTBag

    RudyTBag Contributing Member
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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Whining aside, sure I will help you out. Hopefully you understand that any statistic that carries significant value will not be made public, as it is advantageous to the Rockets when they have information that the rest of the league does not. To understand the value of Shane Battier, I recommend that you first take a look at "Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game"...
    I remember DM recommending some great books on his Twitter a while back.
    And If you haven't already, this video has a great panel that talks about the current state of statistics... http://www.stampedeblue.com/2010/3/29/1395690/m-i-t-sloan-sports-analytics

    How come Kevin Garnett couldn't get out of the first round in his first 8 seasons?
    Why does Robert Horry have thirty rings?
    Why is Grant Hill advancing for the first time this year?
    How come Tracy McGrady can't help his team out of the first round?
    Why does James Posey have rings?
    How long until Rudy Gay gets his team in the playoffs?

    Answer:
    1A: Basketball is a team sport.
    2A: Circumstance.(Those teams were that much better)

    Grizzlies
    1. 20-64 (Rookie Season)
    2. 32-50
    3. 48-34 (Suns)
    4. 48-34 (Spurs)
    5. 52-30 (Mavs)
    Rockets
    1. 36-46 (Before Shane)
    2. 52-30
    3. 55-27 (Yao goes down)
    4. 53-29 (Tracy goes down)(Beat the Blazers, Take the Champions to 7 without Yao & Mutombo & 23 million)
    5. 42-40 (Tracy and Yao go down)

    Lebron James against the Rockets
    2007= 41% shooting
    2008= 46% shooting
    2009= 41% shooting

    Shane and Ron held Lebron to 0 assists one game too, I believe. Shane had 4 blocks in that game and tons of intangible plays :grin:...

    Matt Harpring=6.5 Million
    Shane Battier=5.4 Million

    I thought Shane played great in those playoffs. If I remember correctly he was really knocking down his 3's and getting a ton of tip-outs. Matt Harpring was a nice player too though, and worth every penny, just like Shane.

    "Been Winning" since 2006!
    This is an entirely different argument. I have never been a huge fan of the Rudy for Shane trade, but I see the great value of Shane as a player and as a mentor and leader.

    Shane gets equal blame, but that does not make him any worse at what he does, or discredit the culture he had a heavy hand in. We have seen the results in Houston, there has been an absolute culture change from the moment he has arrived. That's why this team is so endearing to its fans.

    What defines elite? Shane Battier was 3 votes away from being on the first team ballot last year. If he is the 6th best defender in the league, according to the ballot, Does that not make him elite?

    Because, they are not on the all-defensive team, so concurrently, not as good. They are not top 10 defenders. Name a few players that make less money that were on the all-defensive team. Not to mention the intensity and intelligence he brings to the Rockets all season long, including practices. That is a rare trait. Didn't Mike K, Hubes and Gundy say something along the lines of him being the most engaged, attentive, intelligent player that they have ever coached? A real coach on the floor defensively? I am positive you have not played at a high level, nor coached at a high level, because these types of players are far and few between, and worth every single penny.

    1. What about being able to guard Kobe better than any player on the planet?
    2. What about defining your own game, and fitting into a system? What about playing to your own capabilities?
    3. What about "Hey I should be wide open, Why doesn't Tracy pass me the ball with my defender wrecking all this havoc?"
    4. "It's the motion in the ocean, not the size of the boat! Don't make me blush!"
    5. What about possibly the most studied defender in the history of the NBA? What about the inspiration for Kobe Bryant to study more and more game film? How about a severly unathletic wing being able to effectively guard wings twice as fast himself? That is not natural, that is hard work, that is blood, sweat and tears...
     
  17. jevon3012

    jevon3012 Member

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    Bro, did Shane steal your gf or something?
     
  18. NMS is the Best

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    I can tell you one thing, the Spurs would have killed to have a great defender and three point shooter like Battier in that series...
     
  19. RudyTBag

    RudyTBag Contributing Member
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    [​IMG]
    "IF YOU'RE GOING TO LECTURE ME!"
    :grin:
    When is the draft again?
     
    #59 RudyTBag, May 10, 2010
    Last edited: May 10, 2010
  20. QdoubleA

    QdoubleA Member

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