I swear.....I'm not trying to be an alarmist either. I deplore what these storms do in terms of loss of life and property. But like a train wreck, I'm inexplicably drawn towards watching them. just last week I was telling anyone who would listen to just get out of town...............yet I was bound and determined to stay and watch things play out. The only explanation I have is that I'm a moron--which I'm sure most of you have figured out by now. Anyway......the chances of this thing becoming a storm of any significance to us are about the same (or even worse) than this storm just fizzling out and never even making weather.com news. I just thought it was worth watching for those of us who would consider going back to school to become meteorologists.
Long Wang will be bringing a lot of moisture to the southern areas. Activity could commence soon - and there's even a possibility that there will be some action down in Brownsville. If Long Wang does penetrate the southern region, there's a good chance we'll see a massive pull-out from the area. This could lead to lot of people getting drenched.
I agree with this completely. If if it did become a storm of consequence, the chances of it making landfall on our doorstep as a major hurricane are still pretty slim at this point.
I have.....haven't I? I can't imagine anyone actually enjoying that. Unless they like train wrecks or hurricanes.
The NHC cancelled it's flight out to check on it as it just hasn't organized enough. It is still moving rather swiftly to the west-northwest and it could become a depression tomorrow. There is only about a 10 percent chance it will threaten the US coastline according to a few forecasts. The model runs are in fairly good agreement of it making landfall on the Yucatan peninsula in the next couple of days either as a depression or as a tropical storm, but several of the intensity models don't even have it becoming a depression. It could re-emerge in the southern Gulf of Mexico, but we'll just have to see if it survives the mountainous Yucatan and if it even gains any kind of tropical strength beforehand.
Found a great place in Conroe that only charged me $100 for two nights. I ended up getting them and bringing them to my mom's before the storm hit because we had more room than we thought and I only had half of them at the boarding place. It was just easier to have them all in one place, especially for only one night.
I'm getting early release this Friday again too!!! Seriously, but this was scheduled beforehand. Jeff, when you say Mexico, does that include the Valley?
No telling yet. Most of the forecasters are suggesting that it will develop into a depression and go through the Yucatan and into the southern Gulf aiming at the central Mexico coastline. The waters in the Bay of Campeche are warm and there aren't a lot of steering currents, but there is a very strong ridge of high pressure over the northern Gulf which seems to be steering this thing pretty hard west. It COULD become a hurricane. The SHIPS model has it at 90mph winds by 72 hours. It's taken a long time to develop and it is moving awfully fast. Once it hits the Yucatan, we'll have to see how it goes. That high should persist for a little while, which would push it west into Mexico. Just keep an eye out for now.
HEYyyYyyy!!!!! I called it FIRST! Can you give this attention w**** some credit? Please? I ain't no JEFF, but I saw this puppy forming back when RITA was a gleam in our eyes.
The cold front frankly isn't much of a cold front and it would have to interact directly with the storm to pull it northward. Low pressure systems, in general, are much weaker than high pressure. Their steering mechanisms don't push nearly as much air as high pressure. In addition, by the time the low pressure that is driving this front is far enough southward to effect this storm, the storm will likely be controlled by high pressure that will ridge behind this front over Texas. Fronts don't pick up tropical storms and move them until they are weakened onshore. In fact, if anything, tropical storms interacting with fronts tend to work together to build larger storms with little impact on track. Remember that once a storm forms, it has closed convection meaning it is self-sustaining and tends to push through weak areas of low pressure, but it does not have the ability to move through high pressure. It has to move around it. The way this thing is tracking, it probably won't come into contact with this front directly and the front could even have a detrimental effect on the storm in the form of wind shear from the north and northeast. Since the last model run shows almost every model running this thing across the Yucatan and then west and even southwest towards Mexico, I'm not sure it needs to be a major concern at this point. It hasn't even become a tropical depression yet and has a little way to go to get there. --- On a more interesting note, Rita has actually moved BACK into the Gulf and has formed a low pressure center just south of Alabama. It has ZERO chance of strengthening again as there is something like 30 knots of wind shear in the area, but that just shows you how powerful these storms can be. The thing has been on land for five days and it still has the power to re-emerge and create waves, albeit a lot smaller one's.
Just wanted to update everyone. Most models are now forecasting that this will not develop into a tropical storm before landfall. The RECON flight for this morning was postponed until later today and that will likely be cancelled. The storm just doesn't show any signs of strengthening despite the semi-favorable environment. It will interact with the Yucatan Peninsula in the next couple days and then move into the southern Gulf. There is quite a bit of dry air that will interact with it both over Mexico and in the Gulf, so the chances of it developing beyond what it is are remote at this point. Most likely, it will just be an area of showers that moves into the central Mexican coast and that will be that.
It appears that Frank Billingsley agrees with that assessment, according to his forecast last night.....and after the a$$ he kicked during the Rita coverage, I would be pretty likely to agree with him. This cold front is not that impressive yet, but the steering currents brought on by the high pressure system building in behind it would seem to make sure that thing (even if it does build into something) stays to the west of us.
