There are two trends in East Asia now that will prove to be far more concerning in the long term than any crazy acts that NK puts on: (1) The rise of Japnese Neo-cons. (2) South Korea's slide into China's orbit. Neo-cons have gained considrable grounds in Japnese politics in the last decade. It's only a matter of time before a neo-con (such as Abe Shinzo) becomes the prime mister and pushes through the abolishment of "Article 9" of the Constitution. Will a militarized Japan be a friend like the pacifist nation is now? This is a question that may prove to be a lot more complicated than you think. Many Japanese neo-cons have not forgottern the "humiliation" that Japan suffered at the hands of the U.S. during WWII. Another disturbing trend in Asia is South Korea's increasing ties with China. Over the last few years China has become SK's biggest trading partner (bypassing the U.S.) and South Koreans have shown a growing warmth toward China. Meanwhile, the traditional strong ties between the U.S. and SK have begun to slid. The new generation of South Koreans do not have as strong memories of the Korean War as their parents do. South Korea's attemp to engage the north and the so-called "Sunshine Policy" are against the U.S.'s policies in the region. On ther other hand, these policies are strongly backed by Beijing.
That’s very interesting. And by neocons in this instance are you referring to Bush Doctrine type neocons? Unfortunately this was the inevitable result of the declaration of the “right to unilaterally engage in a preemptive war”. As soon as Bush claimed this as a right for the US he at the same time legitimised the same for every other nation including Japan, Iran or whoever. I think that it’s inevitable that trade ties and their proximity to one another will bring China and SK closer together. Why do you see this as a bad thing?
“Real Clear Politics,” eh? That name is almost a guarantee that this is yet another immoral, deceitful, lying, neocon rag. So where are the lies here? I don’t claim to be an economics expert, but generally economic growth is measured by GDP, and using that measure the Chinese econmony is growing at about 3 times the rate the US economy is. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_GDP_(Nominal) As a side note, if you use the adjusted PPP numbers the US is only about 30% ahead of China right now. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)
I'm more concerned about the decepticons from the left side of the fence in the world...WW2 is a long time ago...Times have changed...As evidenced, the democratic party is not what it once was in the times of WW2. If anything, a militarized Japan in our favor gives the U.S. better counterweight in the game of world politics...
Yeah but your original post made it sound like PRC had this planned, i.e., the perceived provocation by NK's missle launch is part of PRC's strategy to counter the US in the Far East. Conspiracy theory at work is all that I smell.
It wasn’t my intention to imply a conspiracy, only that China may be allowing this to go ahead at this time because they don’t feel NK is a serious threat to them and this situation could be seen as currently working in their favour in the global context. If China ever did get to the point where they felt threatened by NK I would think that they would act to stabilize the region. I thinking that they likely have some pretty good info on what’s going on in NK and may well know that they have the ability to shut Kim down if he goes to far.
Don't forget this is the same government (China) that tried to cover up SARS and a big chemical plant leak that killed many Chinese. You may have a point - it sounds like China only acts when they're forced by international shame to act.
Did you know that just over the past 11 quarters, dating back to the June 2003 Bush tax cuts, blah blah blah Dating back to 911 when some a small group of terrorists took out the Twin Towers ... Just as well could have given credit to W's "Hate Our Love of Freedom" speech or invading Iraq or ...
This is bad for a number of reasons. Sam Fisher is right that the rest of Asia is very uneasy about a remilitarized NK. While much of Asia is uneasy about NK practically every country in Asia is more fearful of a resurgent Japan. The memory of Japan's brutality left an indellible mark from Manchuria to Java whereas the Korean War was confined to the Korean Pennisula. IMO Japan won't launch a preemptive attack because such a thing will greatly destabilize Asia and threaten Japan's own fragile economy and diplomatic standing. It will also likely lead to an intensification of the PRC's arms buildup and modernization program along with a more aggressive stance by the PRC on various regional issue. Its not in Japan's interests to have an arms race with neighbors and major trading partners. In regard to Grizzled's idea that the PRC is allowing NK to cause problems its not totally far fetched but IMO very unlikely. Relations between NK and the PRC aren't as rosy as some perceive and in the past few years Kim Jong Il has publically criticized the PRC for not being Communists enough and the NK missile launches aren't in the PRC's interests. The PRC tolerates and protects NK to a certain extent because of fear of chaos if NK were to suddenly collapse swamping China with refugees, or another Korean war greatly harming regional stability and trade, or the possiblity of the US invading NK and right on the Chinese borders. NK is headache for the PRC which they are stuck with.
Good post, but I think China is asleep at the switch. Whether it's on purpose, or just from passing out, I don't know, but they ain't doin' crap... not like they could be doing. In my opinion. Agree about Japan. No one wants them remilitarized, and to aquire atomics, which I've read (don't have the link handy) that they could build in months, and they have sophisticated missiles to put them on. That's why I don't understand China's policy towards NK. One would think that the last thing China would want would be a remilitarized Japan, with atomic weapons parked on excellent missiles. I know China tends to take the long view, which is good policy, but here they are being myoptic, in my opinion. Keep D&D Civil.
I don't know if SamFisher has said anything thus far about a remilitarized NK in this thread. Further, I gather you meant to say Japan rather than NK. Except for the part that "PRC allowing NK to cause problems is not far fetched," this is an excellent summary on the PRC-NK relation. PRC's foreign policy has consistently based on "Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence" (with other nations), the key of which IMO is mutual non-interference in each other's internal affairs. NK is no exception. The decision by Kim Jong Il's regime to test long range missiles is strictly their own, which PRC has absolutely no control of. On the other hand, and in the mean time, U.S. is allowing India to test its long range missiles capable of carrying nuclear war heads, specifically with the aim of targeting cities in PRC such as Beijing and Shanghai. This event is conspicuously under the radar while the much of the brouhaha goes on in regards to NK.
Seems you are perfectly willing to take PRC's official policy at face value, while having no trouble implying US has control over India's test of missiles. You know better to believe any governments' "Official policy", being a little disingenuous perhaps?
you think this administration would disapprove of a pre emptive strike on a member of the axis of evil?
playstation 3 is coming out, i dont want anything to happen to Japan. what has NK done for society? nothing. make that place a parking lot for the south korean bar-b-q joints.
