James Harden's Quietly Superb MVP Campaign

J Sizzle · Dec 4, 2014

With one month of the NBA season already in our rearview mirror, James Harden is knee deep in a whisper-quiet MVP campaign. No player has scored more points. No player has attempted or made more free-throws. Only Nikola Vucevic has played more minutes.

These raw lump sums don't tell the whole story (we'll soon get into numbers that do), but 25 years old and slicing his way through his third season as a franchise player, Harden knows who he is, what he's capable of, and plays with a nightly confidence rarely found in even the most imposing superstars. He's dragging the depleted Houston Rockets through a bloody minefield of a conference -- the sole reason they're 13-4 despite prolonged injuries to three integral starters: Patrick Beverley, Terrence Jones and Dwight freaking Howard. (Disclaimer: It's worth noting that Houston has played the seventh easiest schedule so far.)

If you just gave his stats a passing glance, you might not believe the "quiet MVP" assertion. No player has committed more turnovers, only Kobe Bryant has missed more shots and Harden's barely cracking 40 percent shooting from the floor (40.5 percent through 17 games). But his PER holds steady at an impressive 25.1, fifth best in the league. (This specific contrast is rare: The last player who failed to shoot 40 percent from the floor yet still finish the year with a PER of at least 25 was George Mikan.)

Harden's also never been this bad behind the three-point line. Some of this is due to nearly a quarter of all his attempts coming off the dribble, per SportVU, but that doesn't entirely account for the problem. When he has time to set his feet and let one go off the catch, Harden is shooting a paltry 26.3 percent. It's reasonable to think this number will increase as the season goes on, once he's surrounded by more talented teammates and, well, making shots he normally makes. (Last year he sunk 38 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes.) But until then almost everything else he's doing was expected. Harden is averaging 8.7 made free-throws per game (good for over a third of his nightly scoring average), which is 1.9 below Jerry West's all-time record set in 1966. The charity stripe is his nest, a comfortable place that's totally synonymous with what makes him so effective.

Just under 73 percent of all his baskets are unassisted (it was roughly 66 percent last season), a higher percentage than Kobe Bryant, John Wall, Tony Parker and Stephen Curry. (Every player who has a lower percentage of their baskets assisted is a point guard.) It's impossible to pin Harden down with a positional label. He always has the ball in his hands, and he initiates a majority of Houston's pick-and-rolls that directly lead to points.

But what makes Harden's season really stand out is that his responsibility is gargantuan. As the one Rocket who defenses swarm every time he touches the ball, he's one of the league's very best playmakers. Harden's assist percentage has skyrocketed. It's currently 35.5 percent -- 8.2 percent higher than last year and 16.2 percent higher than his final season with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Harden's creating 16.6 points per game from assists, and 13.8 assist opportunities. Both are up from last season, and rank in the top 10. Harden is also one of the league leaders for secondary assists -- aka the pass that leads to an assist. Despite driving the ball to the rim nearly three times more per game this season than last, Harden is so much more than a bowling ball recklessly crashing into the paint. He surgically picks the opposition apart, hollowing out double teams by feeding teammates a split second before the defense can rotate into a proper position.
Harden not only scores at will, but makes everyone around him better, which largely explains why Houston's offense dissolves into a helpless and predictable puddle when he hits the bench. It's the least effective unit in NBA history when he's not on the floor -- nearly a full point per 100 possessions worse than the hapless Philadelphia 76ers.

Harden's defense isn't perfect -- there are still momentary lapses where his man gets open in the weak side corner or cuts backdoor for a layup -- but it's also no longer the moldy fungus of yesteryear. His effort is roughly 10 megatons better. Harden moves around with purpose, whether it's jumping passing lanes, sinking in to strip a driving guard (only three players have more steals this season) or rotating onto someone else's man while teammates are executing a double team.

This particular play from last Friday night's loss to the Los Angeles Clippers highlights something Harden wouldn't do last season. With Donatas Motiejunas leaving his man to double Blake Griffin at the elbow, Harden is left to guard Matt Barnes in the weak side corner and DeAndre Jordan beneath the basket. It's a tricky spot. Last year, Harden would've probably turned into a statue, leaving Jordan with an easy dunk. But instead he recognizes when and where he should position himself. It's a small difference (and he's still a beat late), but these tiny plays add up.

Last season, shooters were collectively 0.1 percent worse than their average with Harden defending them at the three-point line. This year that margin has "increased" to a 9.0 percent deficit (down to 25.6 percent!). It's no accident. Harden's effort on closeouts, and his positioning to make said closeouts, is much better. He's more aware of his surroundings and various responsibilities. Also: effort, effort, effort, effort.

Did you ever think one month into an NBA season that James Harden would lead the entire league in defensive win shares? Because that's the case right now. For good measure, he's also averaging more rebounds than ever before.

The list of legitimate MVP candidates is not short this early in the season. Marc Gasol, Stephen Curry, Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins and LeBron James (remember him!?) are all scorching the Earth. But so far, Harden is more important to the Rockets than any others have been to their respective squads. Several Rockets are injured, giving him the opportunity to do more with less.

It's currently The Harden, Trevor Ariza, Tarik Black and (the slightly decaying remains of) Jason Terry Show in Houston. That's a gross product, and their success clearly isn't sustainable no matter how super human Harden is -- rough losses against several of the West's top teams prove Howard, Jones and Beverley are somewhat important. But Harden's current run as a titanium life-raft deserves positive attention. He is not the best player in the league -- though he probably isn't far off -- but through the season's first month he is unequivocally its most valuable.
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http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/102930776/james-harden-nba-mvp-houston-rockets

HouStu_Rocket · Dec 4, 2014

He is...our daddy

DreamShook · Dec 4, 2014

OK. How long did you search for this article?

DCHAMP · Dec 4, 2014

harden definitely deserves to be in the conversation but I think anthony davis is more likely to get it

Ghost_of_Akeem · Dec 4, 2014

DCHAMP said: ↑

harden definitely deserves to be in the conversation but I think anthony davis is more likely to get it
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Davis won't get it because his team will likely miss the playoffs.

MVP will be a tough reward to give out this year, a lot of players playing well right now in the west.

Harden deserves to be in the conversation but I think Curry has him right now and Lebron and Durant are still playing in the NBA and we all know what they're capable of.

If the Rockets can keep reeling off wins against contenders while missing half their starting lineup then Harden is the real MVP, imo. But the media will probably over look that.

RoxBeliever · Dec 4, 2014

I think Harden is reaching a maturity level where he cares more for team wins than individual honors. He knows the honors will come when the team wins in the playoffs.

So that's his target so far. I like it that with Dwight's injuries and our winning in spite of it, Harden has cemented that this is his team NOW. And every guy on the roster has followed his lead. It has united the team; everyone has bought in.

This is the classic "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" team.

Voice of Aus · Dec 4, 2014

HouStu_Rocket said: ↑

He is...our daddy
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Going by his reputation in the houston area, he may be a lot of people's daddy

ApolloRLB · Dec 4, 2014

This year is his perfect opportunity if he is going to win one. Durant hurt, Lebron experiencing chemistry and defense problems on new team, and Anthony Davis's team isn't good enough.

BasketballReasons · Dec 4, 2014

Ghost_of_Akeem said: ↑

Davis won't get it because his team will likely miss the playoffs.
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Davis is the JJ Watt of the NBA.

Ghost_of_Akeem · Dec 4, 2014

BasketballReasons said: ↑

Davis is the JJ Watt of the NBA.
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He is the JJ Watt of the NBA, but neither of them will win MVP. Your team has to be a winning team in order to win that award. Both the Texans and Pelicans will miss the playoffs this year.

conquistador#11 · Dec 4, 2014

it's just eyebrows in the way, other wise he has this locked down. demo for most improved =). said it since we got him, we got the best lithuanian out of jonas and demo.

djimi · Dec 4, 2014

I would like to thank those that criticised his defense last season. And that loss to Portland is a blessing in disguise.

glenadyll · Dec 4, 2014

Did you know:

James Harden is averaging more blocks per game than Omer Asik right now.

count_dough-ku · Dec 4, 2014

DCHAMP said: ↑

harden definitely deserves to be in the conversation but I think anthony davis is more likely to get it
Click to expand...

Davis better not win MVP unless the Pelicans finish in the Top 6 in the West. Just eeking into the playoffs isn't enough. Right now if their respective teams can maintain their level of play, you have to put Curry, Gasol(the one not named Pau), and Harden in the top 3. And Harden should get special consideration given how he's kept the Rockets winning with the roster in the shape its in.

Sweet Lou 4 2 · Dec 4, 2014

Who cares about mvp. Get dragon and milsap On this team asap and let's win a chip!

J Sizzle · Dec 4, 2014

DreamShook said: ↑

OK. How long did you search for this article?
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LOL random website, huh?

Somebody retweeted it on my Twitter feed. Thought it was worth sharing, if nothing groundbreaking.

clutz · Dec 4, 2014

clutz said: ↑

Michael Pina used to write for *****.
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LOL. Used to write for unnamed Rockets TrueHoop Network blog.

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