Maybe it has something to do with him joining the Nets mid-season, so he’s played a lower percentage of minutes with them than a typical MVP candidate might. I’m wondering if the model deals with players traded mid-season funny in general. Like, does it penalize Harden for games missed with the Rockets since he left? That would be a bug, probably. Edit: Just checked and he’s now top two, but trailing Jokic by a lot. The model doesn’t seem to put much weight into Denver’s mediocre record. Jokic has been pretty incredible as far as individual stats, though.
Nuggets are 7th in the West and have the 10th best record overall tho...Jokic isn’t even top 4 in the MVP race, even Dame should be ahead of him
Yeah, if he didn't have to average 35 points every night. He would have had more assist and the energy to get more rebounds. There is a limit to his energy. He is human.
The rankings are fairly aligned with the NBA's own tracker, with the exception of Harden and Curry. Harden is way off and Curry doesn't even exist on the tracker (but is somehow 4th on NBA's MVP ladder). Generally BB reference's tracker is pretty good for top 3 (with the MVPs always coming from the top 3), and somewhat agreeable with the rest of the world with top 5. Curry and Harden's positioning is probably the greatest disparity I have seen in a while between what statistical models say versus what media opinions are suggesting.
I emailed bballref about their MVP tracker last week and suggested their code was bugged. They emailed me back this morning and said I was right. Harden's on there now. @YOLO @durvasa @jordnnnn
yeah when I originally saw that list, it made no sense not to have harden on it. especially when hes been on all the vegas books and climbing
Jokic isn't winning MVP. While he has been exceptional, Embid has been better and the Nuggets are under performing. I suppose that the Nuggets could go on a huge run like the Jazz and then Jokic could be the favorite but that isn't likely. The league, and especially the media in LA decided that LeBron James needed another MVP before he was done, and so they were pushing him for MVP. The problem is that the Lakers and James have fallen flat on their face since Anthony Davis has been out and they have even lost their division lead. While no one is blaming LBJ (or pointing out just how good AD is), the talk of his MVP has really calmed down. Joel Embid has nasty numbers, and if the Sixers win the East he has a really good chance. Steph Curry has played well but he isn't winning MVP...... voters have egg on their face for voting for Giannis the last two years and he isn't winning.... Lillard isn't good enough. Beal is on a bad team. Luka Doncic could emerge, he is playing better. Truth be told Harden has a really good chance if he plays at a very high level and the Nets end up with the best record.
If Durant comes back, which he will and put up crazy numbers again, the Harden MVP train will die out. I think Embiid gets it unless something crazy happens. All the "super star" candidates don't have superb records at the moment. I can see the giving it to Lebron when AD comes back and they go on a crazy run to finish the season
They may give it to LeBron but it would be a joke honestly.... the Lakers have been bad without AD. As for Harden.... it really depends.... we are assuming that the Nets run away with the East (and possibly the best record) and I am assuming that KD and Kyrie still miss assorted games.... it isn't a perfect avenue, but it is an avenue to winning the MVP.
KD has already missed 50 of the year to date. He's not winning mvp. the harden mvp train won't be impacted much if they continue to win and KD won't be playing every game in the 2nd half of the season
I expect BK to finish 1st in the East and roll through the playoffs it’s very telling to me that KD has missed so much time, and Kyrie keeps missing a game here or there, but the Nets are just a half game behind Philly and have the better point differential at +4.6 compared to Philly’s +3.4 they also have the better net rating at +4.3 compared to Philly’s +3.2 now imagine what that point differential and net rating will be for BK once KD is back and playing consistently to me, Philly looks like your typical low 50 win team while BK looks like a 60+ win team with everyone healthy Milwaukee I don’t take seriously...Giannis and their shooters choke in the postseason
I kinda think KD is on the Harden MVP train he seems content to just kinda cost and let Kyrie and Harden do all the heavy lifting.
Can somebody tell me how to bet on Harden as MVP? Want to put a little cash down before the odds come down.
