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James Harden currently has a close to 70% chance of winning NBA MVP according to an mvp tracker

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by HardenVolumeOne, Jan 3, 2021.

  1. tycoonchip

    tycoonchip Tilman has Aids!
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    I'd rather him win the finals mvp while holding a houston rockets nba championship trophy.
     
    HP3 likes this.
  2. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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    That's not true, Rockets were 2nd in the West that season. Russ OKC team was a 7th or 8th seed.

    By the traditional standard of MVP going to most productive player on the team with the greater wins total, the decision was easy, Harden.
     
  3. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Easter Egg Hunter - Tell me why? نحن عائلة
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    Ok. It didn't go traditional that year.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016–17_NBA_season

    If that's the season, Russell had them at 6th.
    Cray year, Isaiah Thomas scored 28.9 ppg.

    https://www.landofbasketball.com/year_by_year_stats/2016_2017_leaders_points_pg_rs.htm
     
    #63 daywalker02, Jan 6, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2021
  4. rockets1995

    rockets1995 Member

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    Where are his other 5 MVP Awards?

    Oh Right Media Valuable Player.

    Thank goodness, No More Dumb NBA Award Ceremony. It is absolutely embarrassing to watch comedians make fun of James Harden defense when he is a Top MVP Candidate on the Award Show.

    Making Fun of a Player the NBA should be Promoting a MVP, they are Devalueing the Player. The NBA is a Comic Show.

    Shaqtin A Fool is the Top Reason.
     
  5. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    The Rockets were a 3rd seed. A distant third, actually. The Thunder were a 6th seed.
     
  6. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    Here are MVP Tracker predictions since 2015. I assume the model is trained to accurately select the top winner, not the runner ups. Probabilities from the model aren't available before 2015.

    As you can see, it got it right 5 out 6 seasons. The one season it didn't get it right, it had the least confidence in its pick (Harden at 34%). This is what I meant when I said that the MVP selections are very predictable, just based on quantitative measurements (including team success).

    2015:
    Curry (37%)
    Harden (24%)
    CP3 (16%)
    Actual Winner: Curry

    2016:
    Curry (70%)
    Westbrook (7%)
    Durant (7%)
    Actual Winner: Curry

    2017:
    Harden (34%)
    Durant (21%)
    Westbrook (15%)
    Actual Winner: Westbrook

    2018:
    Harden (68%)
    LeBron (8%)
    CP3 (7%)
    Actual Winner: Harden

    2019:
    Giannis (48%)
    Harden (29%)
    Jokic (4%)
    Actual Winner: Giannis

    2020:
    Giannis (51%)
    LeBron (17%)
    Harden (11%)
    Actual Winner: Giannis
     
    #66 durvasa, Jan 6, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2021
    harold bingo likes this.
  7. riko

    riko Member

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    Embiid is freaking beasting it up in Philly. He should be up there to with James and Jokic
     
  8. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    According to the tracker, he's now in the lead:

    https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html

    1. Embiid (36%)
    2. Jokic (18%)
    3. Harden (12%)

    Hopefully he can stay healthy. It would be nice to see a center win the MVP again.
     
    riko likes this.
  9. riko

    riko Member

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    Watched a few Sixers games on league pass to see what the Simmons hype is about and I was blown away at how good Embiid looks this season.
     
  10. DaDakota

    DaDakota Contributing Member
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    Nah, it is Luka's turn.

    DD
     
  11. caneks

    caneks Rookie

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    0%, if I have to predict
     
  12. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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    That still goes to my point.

    3rd seed is clearly higher than 6th.
     
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  13. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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    Age of the traditional center is dead.
     
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  14. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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    2015 with Curry at 37% was just as weak a prediction as 2017.
     
  15. HP3

    HP3 Member

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    Unless you're Jokic or Dream, post moves are boring to watch for most centers in the league.
     
  16. HP3

    HP3 Member

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    Guard play is objectively more exciting than big man play as a standard.
     
  17. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    3rd seed is higher than 6th seed, yes. But the significance of that is diminished when both teams are still WAY behind the number 1 and number 2 seeds (Warriors and Spurs). 55 wins, in a year when teams in the same conference got 67 wins and 61 wins, simply won't register that much for voters. That's why Westbrook was still a viable candidate. If the Rockets win total was closer to 60, Westbrook's smallish edge in individual box score stats would very likely not have been enough to best Harden's qualifications that year in the eyes of most voters.

    That's not to say Harden didn't have a better case. If I'm not mistaken, I believe I said as much back then. It's just not as clear-cut as other MVP races in the past several years.
     
  18. HP3

    HP3 Member

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    Bro there is no justifying his MVP, he didnt deserve it, end of story. Harden had both Critiera fit for MVP.
     
  19. riko

    riko Member

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    Thankfully you have no vote
     
  20. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    To be clear, I'm not debating who's most deserving or justified. This is about how predictable an MVP race is according to quantifiable metrics.
     
    HP3 likes this.

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