Look at the defensive stats that I posted. Ariza ranked near the bottom on points per possession allowed in isolation, post up, pick and roll - roll man and pick and roll - ball man. He wasnt great defensively either Btw our issue isnt knowing when to switch. The issue is the rotation when someone else switches.
I'm not trying to minimize anything, it's about interpreting the data. Luc and Tucker we're not guarding the best wings on the other team as much as Ariza. Tucker wasnt out in the perimeter as much and Luc wasn't facing starters as much. Bottom line is these stats need quite a bit of context and interpretation and aren't some sort of knock down argument that Ariza was a bad defender. But undoubtedly one of the reasons the team is bad on D and is going away from switching is that Ariza is gone. Ariza could switch to PGs and PFs, it's not clear if Ennis can. Melo definitely can't.
When LMM was in the game, he usually guarded the other teams best player and his numbers were significantly better than Ariza's in most cases. Ariza wasnt the great defender as many make him out to be. Our defense was fine last year when Ariza was out so attributing our fall off to him being gone is an oversimplification. Rules are different this year and teams have had all offseason to reevaluate how to attack switching defenses. Last year our guards frequently guarded the opponents bigs in the post and we generally got away with it. This year teams seem to be making a concerted effort to take advantage of those mismatches and we've gotten punished in those situations. Also, the rules have changed to where we are no longer allowed to prevent opposing bigs from getting to their spots down low. That's putting our guards into bad situations that the didnt face much last year.
Maybe Ariza, Luc and PJ were the ones instructing others on Defense. We dun know but it is logical as a championship role player with the Lakers and veteran. That itself was way helpful than not. We were not a traditional defensive team like Memphis or Boston. Not this year, not last year. Those two were defending with a slow pace. And they are at it again this year.
Good points at the rules and our guards last year, but losing Ariza is part of that too. I'm not really blaming the fall solely to Ariza. Obviously losing Luc hurts too and then we are basically replacing them with terrible defenders in Melo and Green. Hopefully Ennis can be much better. But yeah I agree that teams have probably adjusted to what we did last year and are punishing mismatches better.
Yeah, usually it's never just one thing. It's almost always a combination of multiple factors. Not many people are talking about it but so far this year, the offense has also taken a step back too. People look at ppg and see that we are within a couple of points of last year and assume that the offense is fine. What's being missed is that scoring is way up so far and we haven't kept up. Whether it's the rules changes around the resetting of the shot clock or the new freedom of movement emphasis, teams are scoring more. Last season the Rockets averaged 112.4 pts/gm which was 2nd in the league. So far this year, we've averaged 110 pts/gm which is 20th in the league. Likewise, last year we scored 114 pts per 100 possessions which was tops in the league. This season our scoring per 100 possessions has dropped to 107 which is 19th in the league. That's a huge difference. We are getting just over 4 more possessions per game this year so that's made our pts/game look close to past year. The fact is that we are playing at a faster pace so far and we have been way less efficient. Are the new rules changes forcing us to play faster and it either doesn't suit us or we haven't adjusted yet? Have we just been out of sync offensively and it will get better? I wont even pretend to know the answer. We will have to wait until Harden is back and see how we do over more games. I know that fans love to oversimplify and blame everything to one factor but as you said, theres multiple reasons. The offense has dropped off nearly as much as the defense but it's not talked about as much because the per game numbers arent that different. For whatever reason, scoring and pace have gone up and we haven't kept up on either side of the ball.
Ariza wasn't that good last season, his defence dropped away. It is amazing how when we lose a player, his standing become higher than it was when he played for us
MCW i agree with but damn people want results straight away............Ennis will prove his worth by the end of the season
http://www.espn.com/nba/recap?gameId=401070810 They are naming him menace...... media conspiracy. Now he had a hamstring injury in all the games he played all of a sudden.
Kind of makes sense. If he had initial discomfort that he decided to play through it that might have been why it became a grade 2 hamstring injury by the Clippers game. Let's just hope everyone stays healthy and this team has some time to truly gel.
Were they supposed to be more than mediocre? Was MCW truly supposed to be even more then below average?
It is strange to use these stats (PPP) when we know that Ariza is always either: 1) Guarding the most potent scorer; or, 2) Force-switched on to someone who is unlikely to take a shot. Of course his PPP allowed is going to be bad when he is guarding the best scorer between 6'3 and 6'10 every night. By design, it would be strange if he wasn't ranked low on that basis. What would be more telling - and frankly I don't even know where to find these stats - is how his teammates did against the same assignment, or how the opponent's best scorer did against other defenders compared to Ariza. Another interesting stat would be (and I've never seen this anywhere) possession denial - i.e. how many fewer attempts do people take because they're being guarded by Ariza. Looking at some stats that somewhat point in these directions: 1) Durant's EFG% against Houston in the regular season and playoffs was worse than about 3/4ths of the teams he played against. 2) 3 out of 4 of Durant's worst EFG%, TS% and FG% in the playoffs came against Houston. 3) Durant's +/- was obviously worst against Houston. This is really all that matters to me personally: Who is going to guard Durant? Ariza is 6'9 with a 7 foot wingspan and exceptional footwork. He couldn't bother Durant's turnaround jumper or 3pter much, and most others seem to have fared worse than he did. Who's going to do this now? IMO your stats are saying Ariza did not hold his opponents to fewer points per possession than his teammates held their assignments. I don't think that's the question or the answer we need.
Thank you. Metrics are often used to falsely paint a picture about a player someone doesn't like. However, when you put them in context it brings everything back perspective. Ariza did a great job defending Durant, based on how Durant did against us vs other teams. Yes KD also had great games but we did force him to have a few bad games. Which is all you can ask for
Thanks for the props. I think people are just trying to find answers man, and all the data is useful. I don't think it's nefarious, Rockets fans wouldn't have any motive to diminish their own players.
most people on here knows that Ariza’s Defense will be missed and that no one can stop the likes of KD and hopes to just slow him down and his defense will be hard to replace but when the guy literally has one job on offense and goes 0-12 and makes it 5-4 out there no matter what he is on defense it doesn’t offset his bad offense
There's some invalid , misleading assumptions in your statements. - " Ariza is always either: 1) Guarding the most potent scorer; - Ariza didn't "always" guard the team's best scorer. Sometimes he was assigned to a different player (New Orleans) and other times it's simply due to switching. Against the Pelican's, Tucker and Capela typically match up with Anthony Davis. Ariza usually only gets him on switches. In today's NBA, teams run pick and roll to force switches. Ariza could be the greatest lock down defender in the history of the game and he still wouldn't be guarding the other teams best player all the time. All teams have to do is to run pick and roll and they can force a switch. Force-switched on to someone who is unlikely to take a shot. - You do realize that in the cases where Ariza switches on to someone who is unlikely to shoot then that HELPS his PPP ? When LMM was in the game, he typically took the best offensive player in more cases than Ariza. Despite guarding the same guys, LMM's PPP numbers were better than Ariza's in most every category. You can go look at the numbers on who LMM guarded while he was on the floor and it was generally the same guys that Ariza guarded. If he's getting the same assignments, then why did LMM do so much better at it than Ariza? 1) Durant's EFG% against Houston in the regular season and playoffs was worse than about 3/4ths of the teams he played against. 2) 3 out of 4 of Durant's worst EFG%, TS% and FG% in the playoffs came against Houston. 3) Durant's +/- was obviously worst against Houston. The 3 games that you are refering to are games 3, 4 and 5 in the WCF. Another poster made the same claim in another thread saying that Durant shot under 40% in those 3 games and that was due to Ariza's defense. Same thing as you are implying. That simply isn't true. I posted the actual results of the defensive matchups in those 3 games and they paint a different picture. - In those 3 games where Durant shot less than 40%, he was only guarded by Ariza on 48.3% of his possessions (114 of 236). So, Ariza guarded Durant less than 50% of the total possessions. - Game 3: Durant played 75 offensive possessions Ariza guarded him on 29 of those possessions. Durant shot 60% on the possessions where he was guarded by Ariza. Obviously, our other defenders were much more effective against Durant in his other 46 possessions. So, Ariza guarded Durant on only 38.7% of his possessions and Durant shot really well in those possessions where he was guarded by Ariza. In this game, Durant shot under 40% but it wasn't because of Ariza as you are assuming. Game 4: Durant played 82 offensive possessions. Ariza guarded him on 44 of those possessions (54% of his possessions). Durant shot 44% on the possessions where he was guarded by Ariza. Again, our other defenders were more effective against Durant in the other 38 possessions. - Game 5 : Durant played 79 offensive possessions. Ariza guarded him on 41 of those possessions. Durant shot 57.7% when he was guarded by Ariza. Another case where our other defenders were much more effective against Durant than Ariza was. Again, Durant shot very well when guarded by Ariza but he still shot under 40% for the game. His overall poor shooting wasn't due to him being guarded by Ariza. I certainly can't show you numbers of Ennis guarding Durant in our defense since it obviously hasn't happened yet. I can show you the actuals that we have so far and it shows that Ennis isn't giving up may baskets while he's on the floor. The Rockets defensive success last year was due to the overall scheme but many posters seem to be attributing it to Ariza. That simply isn't true. I completely understand why you'd make the assumption that Durant's poor shooting in those 3 games was due to Ariza, but when you look at the actual results you'll see that wasn't true. I'm not even saying that Ennis is going to be really good long term, nobody knows that yet. What I'm saying is that only judging him by what he's actually done in our system, you can't reasonably come to the conclusion that he's been bad defensively or that he can't shoot. Two opinions that posters have frequently expressed this season. Last night is a great example. Ennis was on the floor for 31 defensive possessions ( 9 vs La Vine) and didn't allow a point.and the Bulls scored a total of 19 points while he was on the floor. Ennis hasn't allowed many points while he's been on the floor but people have decided that he can't defend. Likewise, from behind the arc, Ennis shot just under 53% in preseason and he's at 45% in the regular season. He only shot below 40% in a game 1 time in the preseason and 1 time in the regular season. He's shot the 3 well and he's been consistent. Based on that, how can anyone decide that he can't shoot? Ennis will have that same role that Ariza filled. He'll get the assignment of the stud wing scorers. Like Ariza, our success or failure will be due primarily to the team defense. So far, everyone seems to have decided Ennis can't defend yet nobody is really scoring on him.
Ok, almost always. That's why I said between 6'3 and 6'10. Trevor Ariza can't guard Anthony Davis. This is false, I recommend revisiting the formula for PPP. I'm not sure whether you believe it's opposing team possessions or opposing player possessions, but in both cases: - If it's opposing player, then that won't count as a possession, which is a plus. 0 for 0 is good. - If it's opposing team, then he will lose out because now a lesser defender is guarding a potent scorer. LMM was brought in to rest Ariza. LMM is an excellent defender. We can argue all day about what's a significant portion of possessions, but guarding the best perimeter scorer off the bat 82 games + playoffs is certainly more difficult than LMM coming in fresh and guarding a tired scorer or a bench player. The analysis also ignores the fact that MDA overplayed Ariza throughout the regular season and playoffs. Why would the staff have Arize at such an insane minutes number while Luc was clearly capable of playing more minutes if he's better? I also ask you to ponder why no one ever insisted on getting Ariza on the switch. I should have specified, it's games 4, 5 and 6 I was talking about and Ariza guarded Durant more than any other player on the team and they actively sent picks at him. Also, let's stick with efg%, ts% or pps. The Warriors and Durant were less efficient with Ariza on the floor. Ariza guarded Durant the most. Durant scored really well against Ariza, but not as good as he did against other teams. All other Rockets players combined (and Luc barely played) were able to get Durant to a lower FG% when they took turns on one-off plays. One of the primary other Rockets would be Tucker or Capela, both of whom are good defenders. I don't see anything here that says Ariza is not a very good defender. I don't think Ennis is a bad defender or shooter, so we're on the same page here. It's the reason I've been advocating for us to at least get another decent wing defender who doesn't have to be amazing. I just don't think Ennis is a better defender than Ariza on Durant, which imo is the only thing that matters. I think Morey, MDA, Bzdelik and Durant would all say the same thing, but that's conjecture at this point.
The PPP numbers that I quoted is based on team possessions. If Ariza is guarding a player that doesn't shoot then that counts as a possession that he defended. It's an individual stat so the fact that a good offensive player is being guarded by a weak defender has no effect on Ariza's numbers if his man didn't score. So, as I said, if Ariza gets switched to a player that doesn't shoot then it HELPS his PPP for these numbers. We can use game 6 instead of game 3 but it's the same situation. Ariza guarded Durant on 21 of his 67 possessions. Durant shot 50% when guarded by Ariza and he shot much worse when guarded by the other Rockets. Over those 3 games, Over those three games that you mentioned, Durant was more often (54% of the time) guarded by someone other than Ariza and in all three games he shot the ball better when guarded by Ariza. Our switching defense is what messed up the GSW offense. It took away the open shots that they usually create off of ball movement and screens. They ended up going much more ISO than normal. Our team defense caused that issue, not Ariza's defense. Our defense was actually more effective when Ariza wasn't playing Durant.
