What does this mean? Can you elaborate? I'm tired of people trying to replace actual discussion of on court basketball issues with vague platitudes. Go beyond the platitudes. Explain this with actual basketball talk. Your talking points here... Why cant this apply to Sengun? What does Sengun do for the offense if he doesn't have the ball in his hands? Can Sengun excel on offense without it running through him?
The reality is that Jalen struggles to score efficiently both on and off the ball. He shot 31.6% on catch and shoot threes, worse than his 33.5% on pull ups which is already not a good mark. He shot 32.4% on all catch and shoot shots for a 48.1 eFG%. Contrast that with FVV who shoots 42.4% on catch and shoot threes, 41.9% on all catch and shoot attempts with a 62.2 eFG%. While FVV's overall efficiency is average, his outside shooting is above average which spaces the floor for everyone else. This is on top of running the show and being 2nd in the league in A:TO ratio. Jalen cannot do that. Not only does this hurt spacing, but his overall inefficiency is a drag on the offense at his volume. Jalen's is 1st in field goal attempts on the team, while being 15th in TS%, dead last in eFG%, and well below league average. This doesn't apply to Sengun because he is efficient both on and off the ball. His post game is effective, but actually secondary. The #1 most efficient and most run play we have is the PNR between him and FVV, which is explicitly him playing off ball. He's 3rd on the team in efficiency despite leading the team in PPG. That's behind Jermaine Samuels and Jeff Green, and I'm not really going to count Samuels because of sample size and Jeff Green is barely in the rotation. So while Sengun can't space the floor for others, he's still playing a large off ball role and the numbers support needing to space the floor for him rather than the other way around. I know you might counter this by saying Sengun clogs up the paint for Jalen as evidenced by Jalen's March numbers, but Sengun was there for a third of the March games and Jalen already started playing well before Sengun's injury. Jalen played 18 games without Sengun, ten where he went supernova followed up by eight games where he went back to being as inefficient as ever. And no, the season was not over by that point because we were only a half game behind GS for the play in before our five game slide, so those games really mattered.
How does someone who is so inefficient on and off ball have the second highest positive impact on team offensive efficiency only behind FVV? This should allow you to consider that individual shooting splits and trh only thing that matters to offensive impact. Green's catch and shoot numbers for example don't effect how opposing teams guard Jalen. Because they know the last thing you want is Jalen hitting one or two threes because the league knows he is one of those guys that can make 5 threes in a few minutes. So off ball he isn't really causing issues like guys like Amen or Sengun. Then there is the fact that he is one of the best players in the league in collapsing defenses by effortlessly besting perimeter defenses off the dribble causing defenders to scramble that help generate easy looks many of which would be secondary or tertiary assists for Jalen from the initial break down of the perimeter defense. Jalen is by far the best player on this team in regards to causing defenses to scramble and be out of position and that will often lead to easier buckets for teammates but again it not might be recorded as a direct assist. https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/11/onoff#tab-team_efficiency Sengun is a great roller to the rim but if he doesn't roll, he is a unaccounted for offensive player hovering by himself with no defense within a 5 ft radius around him while his original defender is either blitzing the primary ball handler whether it's FVV or Jalen or playing drop coverage and packing the paint. Two players as talented as Sengun and Green should eventually figure out how it works together but you can't just flat out ignore that not having Sengun in the middle helped Green is some games. Primarily the OKC game in how they defended Jalen. Without Sengun, when Jalen splits a blitz, he has this massive wide open runway to do his acrobatic things at the rim. Usually Sengun would be somewhere hovering around the ft line with his defender playing drop coverage packing the middle. So yes there are some cases where Sengun's lack of spacing negatively effects teammates like Green. If Sengun doesn't have the ball in his hands or isn't rolling to he rim l, he is even less effective than Jalen as at least opposing teams knows Jalen can get hot from three and aren't just going to ignore him out in the perimeter as if he doesn't exist like they do with Sengun. This isn't me trying to say they can't work together. This is me responding to someone saying Jalen can't work well unless he has he ball in his hands and those same concepts would apply to Sengun. Hell Amen without the ball if he isn't playing a dunker spot role severely hinders offensive spacing.
For me its pretty simple. This next season he has to have a good start for me to consider giving him the rookie max. He would have to be great all season for me not to trade him for Booker. If he has a good start and decent second half, I'll trade him
Yes Simons, Sexton, and to a lesser extent Bogdanovic were better offensive players as of 23-24 than Jalen Green, just based on totality of advanced metrics we have for winning offensive impact. I.e., adjusted plus minus models like EPM. Poole was also better in the year he got his extension off of, then regressed. But that’s not the main point. The question isn’t whether Jalen can be at their level, he certainly can. But those guys are or should be paid like 6th men and that would be their role on a great team. If Jalen is open to signing a next contract at that level then it’s a whole different calculation. I’m assuming he isn’t. I would be very happy if he was. Simons, Sexton, Herro, Beal, Monk etc. These are very good players but no contender is interested in having them in their team paid >20% of the cap. Jalen (on the type of contract we’re all assuming he wants) has to be a starter. And the role of a guard-sized player as a starter on a really good team in 2024 is either (a) elite offensive player like Booker, Mitchell, Maxey, Ja, Steph, Brunson, Fox, Bane etc. or (b) super role player like Jrue, White, KCP etc.. That’s it. Hence those are Jalen’s outs. Outlier shooting development to be an elite off guard like Booker, Mitchell etc., or becoming more an always on-ball elite offensive rim pressure guy like Fox or Ja, or super role player. And to give credit to Jalen he has a far better chance of getting to the defensive level of a super role player guard than someone like Simons or Herro does. All of them seem unlikely, but not impossible. This year is a swing at one of those paths manifesting. I’m supportive of it. And again Jaylen Brown is an irrelevant comp. Physically Jaylen Brown is a forward and has always been. Jaylen Brown’s offensive skill level in Jalen Green’s body would be a 6th man, not an All-NBA player. The offensive skill level bar for a guard sized player is completely different from that of a 6’6-6'7, 7’0 wingspan, 225 lb forward.
Firstly, why you have to immediately bring Sengun into this conversation? It shows how insecure you are in defending JG against @MystikArkitect. Secondly, simple answer to your question about what Sengun do for the offense if he doesn't have the ball is that he screens non-stop for Jalen Green so Jalen can drive to the basket or shoots. That is what Sengun is doing for your boi!
Id rather have Bari setting those screens which I don't understand why the coaching staff doesn't run more pnr with Bari as the screener. Is he really that bad at setting screens? The reason why I would rather Bari set them is because defenders won't automatically chose to blitz Jalen if the screener pops out as they do when Sengun sets a screen and doesn't hard roll to the rim immediately. I bring up Sengun because I'm trying to understand the hypocrisy of this narrative that Jalen is useless without the ball. Guys like Sengun are even more useless as opposing defenses literally use off ball Sengun as a pivot point to play off of similar to Amen. And on/off impact on team offensive efficiency shows that
I dont give a **** who you want or dont want to step up the screens...I didn't ask you that. You asked a question and now you have your answer. Bari doesn't set up the screen...Sengun does. Stop reflecting your insecurities about Jalen Green on Sengun!
You don't want to discuss basketball unless we frame it in your terms of psychoanalyzing my motivations. Id rather not engage. I attempted to have a reasonable engagement with you but you chose to flip the table. It's okay. Your lack of self awareness is making you ironically show your insecurities in which I do find funny so you gave me that at least.
No. He can't. That's why some people are not as into him or his archetype even though he carried our offense for the majority of the year. The same applies to Jalen in that he needs the ball in his hands to be successful. Do you really want me to paste all of his terrible stats here to prove my point? Do you want me to show you all of his stats in all of his years prior to the ASB when tanking teams have long since stopped giving a **** and good teams begin resting their players for the playoffs? Eyeball test? Jalen is bad. Stats? Jalen is bad. I'm not sure what else you want me to ****ing tell you. Sengun needs the ball in hands to be successful. Yeah. The difference is Sengun is actually good at it.
Your argument must be reasonable before in order for someone to be reasonable to engage with you. You had no reason to bring Sengun into the conversation. You are an idiot!
Sengun is good at being a hub of one of the least efficient slowest paced offenses in the league. Individually he is efficient, but is Senhub a path to a high octane offense? That is a reasonable question. Jalen on/off impact on team offensive efficiency: 72nd percentile, +2.4, second highest amongst all players on the roster only behind FVV https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4865/onoff#tab-team_efficiency Sengun on/off impact on team offensive efficiency: 57th percentile + 0.5 https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4879/onoff#tab-team_efficiency On/off impact has its noise and its flaws like any other metric people tout to prove their point but there are levels to this. On/off impact says less the more distante the situation of two players is. For example two players on two different teams, on/off impact has less relevance. One player as a starter and another as a bench player on the same team, more relevance. Two starters on the same team... Probably the most useful use of on/off impact metrics. This is why individual scoring efficiency numbers aren't the be all end all of analysis. Btw, go off on the fact that Jalen had horrible on/off impact on the defensive end. That's a very reasonable complaint.
I understand your point. I just think your premise was unclear and confusing as you established an arbitrary plus 35% mark while specifically mentioning elite 2 guards as a model for Green to emulate. But now you have added point guards to your premise. Also I suppose where you and I differ is your complete reliance on metrics to define player abilities. Again metrics don’t completely explain the phenomenon on the court. That’s why physical observation on the basis of knowledge is needed to fully assess players. We differ on the ability and effectiveness of those players you mentioned. Jaylen Brown’s body has nothing to do with what we are discussing. He played 2 guard most of his career and shot 34% in year 7 as you mentioned elite 2 guards in your premise. I did not mention anything else but his 3 pt shooting since that’s what you focused on. But sure I can agree that Green needs to improve to get the bag. But like Brown Booker and Fox and so many before him he can grow and refine his game. So no it’s not unlikely.
I think you need to look at some of the other established 2 guards in this league and look up their catch and shoot or pull up 3s within their first 3 years. You would be surprised in what you see. Again glass half full or empty
I was as clear, evidence-based, provided the logic for the threshold, and offered to use any other shooting indicator metric you'd like... so not going to continue that line of discussion. I think we have a different conception of basketball decision-making if you don't believe the best empirical impact metrics we have are of primary importance, and subjective eye-test stuff is your basis. Or if you don't think Jaylen Brown being a forward sized player has any bearing on the relevance of a comparison to Jalen Green. All discussions of basketball skill exist in relation to size and physical capacities. I'll just reiterate: if a player with Jaylen Brown's skill level were had FVV's body he'd be a high school gym coach, in Jalen Green's body he'd be a 6th man, in Jaylen Brown's body he's an All-NBA player, in Steven Adams' body he'd be a GOAT contender. The offensive skill level Jalen Green needs to get to, in order to be worth a big contract, is much higher than for Jaylen Brown (or Amen Thompson, or Tari Eason, or Cam Whitmore etc.). Simply put: players who can only guard other guards, and do so just adequately, have to be elite offensive players to start for a very good team. Subsequently, Jalen Green has to either make the leap to an elite offensive level or make a surprising defensive leap to be worth the contract we all expect him to demand. Empirically, both leaps are unlikely but not impossible, given the data sample we have of previous players in his position and their track records up to that point (yes, shooting indicators from years 1-3 is a significant part of that data sample). We have little to lose letting that bet play out this season, so I agree with the FO on the plan to do it. If we don't agree on that much, we won't agree on anything else, so we can end on that.
