I guess 20% optimistic and 80% pessimistic. I still believe there's a high ceiling within him, I'm just not putting money on it. And to me the biggest issue with Jalen that people don't really talk about is the fact that he NEEDS the ball in his hands. For instance last year he had basically half the games at 16+ shots and half at 15 or fewer shots. The former he shot 47% and latter he shot 35%. I've seen many people say he just needs to make better decisions. When in reality he no, he needs the touches and a reduced role only makes him worse. Basically next year he's either going to succeed as a Beal/Lavine type scorer, or he's going to fail and the Rockets let him go to some tanking team who will take him on as a reclamation project. Cause the Rockets have way too many other talented young players on the roster who should be getting more touches if Jalen's still like this after next year.
If he does not improve his numbers this year, he will either be traded or signed to a team friendly deal and the starting spot will be an open competition the following year.
On the asset v liability discussion. At 12m, if Jalen goes into a 6th man role. Or if the extension number was like KPJ 17m-20m. The fan base might still be willing. More of a Dante Exum rookie contract extension situation. A high pick who showed limited upside / inconsistency in first few years, but Jazz willing to keep him around longer at a cheaper price... Just in case. If he showed more progress during he's first extension, he can get paid more in the next one. In Exum's case, he didn't. So the lower extension number was the right move. But if Jalen (and his agent) are seeking a much a higher number, which is likely the case. This is where pessimistic crowd have a right to be concerned. If a player is asking for something that might happen in the future, that's tough to say YES. If someone can't demonstrate it in their contract year, then it's probably unlikely. A role player should not be asking for star player salary, until the player proves otherwise. (not blind faith) GMs are making decisions now on Jalen's draft class: Cade, Barnes... CAVS took care of Donovan first, so Mobley soon. For those who don't pan out, you see Thunder deciding on Giddey's fate. Ok with Stone waiting until mid next season. Internally the FO should have a limit in mind when at the bargaining table. Team has given Jalen starter minutes, something the other young players would love to have. FO has been more than fair to him.
8 good games against trash teams isn't fooling me. Jalen is a low IQ player. He does not shoot, pass nor defend at a high level and yet we all know he will want a big extension as if does all 3. Paying him or trading him are the only options whether it is now or in a year. Unless we call letting him walk for free an option - it is a better one than extending him. If we could get a 2026 first for him then this helps us with the stepien rule for any future trades. All of our other draft picks have been high motor and/or high IQ with a team first, winning mind set. As such we need to prioritise these, all 7 aren't staying. Keeping Green into this season lowers his trade value. All 4 of Amen, Sheppard, Eason and Whitmore will prove more valuable than him this season. By seasons end 2 of those are earning the starting spots currently occupied by Green and Brooks. Trade now.
I chose somewhat optimistic. He showed he can learn and improve, I still keep the opinion that he will eventually make it but it will take time for him to develop. Will not be a max player by the end of next season but will be a player you want to keep.
Optimistic and ready to poke out my chest for the cult to see... But If he has a good stretch, he's just hot.. Have a bad game , and its " see I knew it" ... Can't wait for the season
July 6, 2025: “Match the offer sheet. These last 2 years under Udoka weren’t totally bad. I need to see one more year. We have no way of replacing him and we can always trade him later.”
If there were only single bad games between his good stretches, he'd be an all-star already with a max extension signed this offseason
Right on the fence. I expect his play to be divisive and fueling a lot more debate. He'll always have those flashes that captivate the imagination.
1). I don’t think we can pay all 7 of our core prospects. 2). Even if Jalen plays the entire season at a high level that’s still only 1 out of 4 years of good production. 3). He’ll be asking for max or near max money, that he hasn’t earned. 4). If we pay both Jalen and Sengun we are cementing our future around those two at the expense of the rest of our prospects. 5). If Jalen underperforms or doesn’t think Houston will offer him the money he thinks he’s worth, he could ask for a trade, further undermining the org’s trade leverage. 6. We should avoid an RFA scenario where we have to match a bad contract or lose Jalen for nothing 7). Stone hasn’t proven his trading prowess, so signing Jalen and assuming we can just trade the contract later is a poor assumption. Also Jalen’s trade value will be worse off a rookie-scale contract. 8). Trading Green sooner gets a better return and opens up more minutes for our young core players. Why develop him for another team if we aren’t keeping him?
On the fence leaning to the pessimism side, about 40-60 confidence of him turning out to be a good player. We only have about half a season to decide. He might not be on the Rockets even if he eventually pans out.
This is a typical causation vs correlation mistake. You can’t solely look at those numbers and say he needs the ball in his hands. The more likely explanation is we gave him the ball on nights he was shooting well.
Thr ability to bring it consistently even when you aren't feeling it is what makes stars, after 3 years watching the same pattern I'm extremely confident he doesn't have it.
Haters are going to do what they do......HATE! Lets face it, Jalen has what the NBA and the Rockets want, which is appeal and athletic ability. If the Rockets had a choice out of all of the players on the roster to be the FACE OF THE FRANCHISE moving forward.....it would be Jalen. NOW, the question is, will he ever get there? I think its about DRIVE and MATURITY. People are different, some get it at certain times in life and some never get it. Perfect examples are T-Mac and Kobe. I always thought that T-Mac had everything Kobe had but he never showed that drive to be great. Some of Kobe's best games came during his trail, when he was facing prison....he still prevailed! Im not sure what Jalen was going through earlier this yr but you can't let anything interfer with your performance on the court. However, later, when he was in a better frame of mind, he played well....to me thats about maturity. Knowing how to blockout things that are outside the lines.
Contract year, framework for success with a coach and defensive identity in place... big man who pulls in defenders and passes well. Everything is T'ed up for Jalen Green.
Pulling hard for Jalen, but those butt-pounding videos with Josh are hard to delete from my brain... First month of this season will reveal all.
