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Jalen's future. Optimist or pessimist?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by jim1961, Jul 4, 2024.

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Are you optimistic or pessimistic about Jalen's future?

Poll closed Oct 4, 2024.
  1. Very optimistic

    34 vote(s)
    11.0%
  2. Somewhat optimistc

    84 vote(s)
    27.2%
  3. On the fence

    66 vote(s)
    21.4%
  4. Somewhat pessimistic

    86 vote(s)
    27.8%
  5. Very pessimistic

    39 vote(s)
    12.6%
  1. TEXNIFICENT

    TEXNIFICENT Member

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    LMAO!!!!
     
    MadMax likes this.
  2. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Jalen Green and Brown have similar measurements in terms of length. Obviously Brown is a lot beefier but Green is a lot more laterally agile. I don't know why you are framing Green as a guard of the size of guys like Fox and Ja.

    I remember the last Wolves game in Minnesota, their analyst Jim Petersen was observing Green and said and I paraphrase "I said earlier Green is up there with Ja and Fox as one of the the quickest guys in the league when dribbling the ball but unlike those guys he's around 6'6". He's a big guard with that quickness and that's why he is so difficult to defend"

    I think Green is legitimately taller than Ant and by more than an inch.
     
    Dobbizzle and Stephen_A like this.
  3. Buck Turgidson

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    Jimi loved blues and country music, was my point. One of us missed something.

    Lots of fans listened to both.
     
  4. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Member

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    I can't see the ranking or Jalen's line because that website is paywalled, but I trust what you're saying is true. Remember that Jalen played a lot of minutes with FVV who was the engine in our offense, including games without Sengun in March when Jalen was super hot and the team was uncharacteristically amazing on offense because of him. I'm not taking credit away from Jalen for being dominant during that month. He played like a superstar and we won a lot of games on his back. But he really was horrible up to that point and for most of the season. He exploded at a time Sengun was out, which could shift on-off rankings on the year. Unlike individual efficiency stats, on-off is affected by lineups. It wouldn't surprise me if Sengun, Jalen, and Jabari had crazy good on-off numbers for offensive efficiency for 22-23 over 23-24, even though they were much worse on offense, simply because they were our starters and the bench was the worst in the league.

    Sengun is not unaccounted for if he doesn't roll. He's still in the dunker's spot and passes from the elbow. No, Sengun doesn't space the floor but his shot and passing profile is almost identical to Bam Adebayo's. Bam is a very good iso scorer, but I almost consider him an off ball player and an integral part of Miami's offense. And if Sengun is good enough to be the hub then whether he can play off ball isn't that important. No one questions whether Giannis, Zion, or SGA can play off ball.

    If Jalen plays like he did in March he's a superstar. Unfortunately, for 80% of the season he played like one of the worst players in the league and was often straight up benched in the 2nd half. That's why I voted somewhat pessimistic on this poll.
     
    fchowd0311 likes this.
  5. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    On/off I believe only accounts for games played.

    And between Sengun and Green, per game, Sengun mirrors FVV rotational minutes more than Green because Green and FVV are often staggered for primary guard ball handling duties where Green is the back up to FVV as lead ball handler when FVV rests.

    Look at an average game with a full roster and you'll see Sengun sharing time per game on the court with FVV more than Green.

    I'm pretty sure the coaching staff made it a mission for Sengun and FVV to be on the court together because they thought their two man game was the best thing for the offense.

    Also if Sengun isn't rolling hard off a screen set how would he be in the dunker spot?

    It was a often occurrence where Sengun short rolled and hovered around the ft line to three point line where no defender worked or care for him existing in that spot. That's where the primary ball handler would get blitzed or Sengun's defender would just drop back and clog the paint.
     
    #185 fchowd0311, Jul 8, 2024
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2024
  6. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Member

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    Catch and shoot 3pt% for notable SG's (Rookie, Sophomore, 3rd year).

    Devin Booker: 40.8%, 36.9%, 40.4%
    Donovan Mitchell: 40.6%, 40.1%, 43.2%
    Anthony Edwards: 33.5%, 41.3%, 41.7%
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 37.1%, 41.9%, 43.2%
    Jaylen Brown: 25%, 39.1%, 34.3%
    James Harden: 38.5%, 39.9%, 41.4%
    Zach Lavine: 40.8%, 42.9%, 42.2%
    Bradley Beal: 38.5%, 41.6%, 38.7%
    Klay Thompson: 44.3%, 45.7%, 44.1%
     
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  7. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    I'll be happy when this next season is over and this scrub is no longer in Houston. I'm tired of hearing the excuses from his cult.

    Time for Linsanity 2.0 to end.
     
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  8. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Crazy how shooting guards that are any good at all are typically REALLY good at shooting 3's, especially catch and shoot 3's.
     
  9. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Member

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    If it only accounts for games played that's great, but Green still had 18 games without Sengun which is nearly a quarter of the season. They certainly were not staggering FVV's and Green's minutes during that stretch, but I'm not going to go through game logs to check. On-off rankings can certainly be skewed when some starters play a significant amount of time without another.

    Sengun is in the dunker's spot the same way Bam is. Miami is not a PNR heavy team. Bam scores a lot on cuts and dishes. Butler is an iso scorer primarily and isn't spamming the PNR. Heck, Gobert is in the dunker's spot and Minny's third leading scorer at 14ppg and they run practically zero PNR with him.

    Here's an example of Sengun in the dunker's spot without setting the screen. Credit to Jalen on the pass.

    Jalen Green dishes it on the bounce pass to Sengun who scores the jam | NBA.com
     
  10. Stephen_A

    Stephen_A Member

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    You left out the pull up shots. How do those look compared to Green?

    Some of the players you listed here declined in year 3.

    Also if you looked deeper you would see that some of these players including Shai, Booker, and Mitchell’s shooting fluctuated in the later years.

    Also what 8 games are you referring to? He played well in 4 out of the final 8 Games of the season if that’s what you’re referring to. To those who prioritize efficiency it may looked like “bad” games but further examination reveals a different story. Again some of those games he didn’t hit on threes but made up with playmaking, dribble drive, and mid range jumpers etc. especially in that MIN game. As I asked what are we really seeing? What are we judging? What is the measure or standard to assess players? Is it Mere metrics or individual stats? What kinds of plays, decisions, or actions effect winning?
     
  11. maj21

    maj21 Member

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    Jalen Green is about the shock the NBA!! Y’all get ready to eat crow like I had to do with Sengun
     
    Stephen_A likes this.
  12. AroundTheWorld

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    I'd be happy to, if he performs consistently on a level like Sengun. Because that would be great for the Rockets. "For a variety of reasons" (copyright Clutch).
     
    jim1961 and maj21 like this.
  13. BallSoHarden

    BallSoHarden Member

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    Maybe he was the better pick, but now the Cavs are going to max him out. They again have to make a decision that is not 100% clear to everyone. I just don't feel that bad about losing out on him because I am unsure on if he will be good value on this next contract, and that is what matters. If we are talking about going Fultz over Tatum, Trae over Luka, or even not having someone like Ant in our drafts or not getting Wemby those types of things would have altered the franchise and are things I think about missing out on.

    Realistically the market is not that hot for Jalen, he may not get a full max deal and if we give him a $100-$150M deal and he is just a late bloomer who needed someone like Ime to build some structure around him, then we will end up with the better value in the long run. The other advantage we have is even if Jalen only slightly improves to a Mobley level player this year, we won't be pressured to max him out, if he walks we have plenty of other assets that have potential to be far better than Mobley or Jalen. We are in a much better position than the Cavs are.

    You can be pessimistic and act like you knew something and the team made the wrong decision, but the reality is if you guys really knew something, then Mobley was not the pick, the Pick was actually Alpren, and we got him.

    Look at any 2021 redraft, and look at who we ended up with. A lot of the redrafts have not been updated since April, and many were saying Jalen should go first overall after his one good month. In a 2021 redraft where we select Mobley, we also end up w Giddey at 16. Jalen + Alpren is a better draft than Mobley + Giddey. If we had gotten Mobley, we would not have gotten Alpren.
     
    #193 BallSoHarden, Jul 8, 2024
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2024
  14. FLASH21

    FLASH21 Heart O' Champs

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    Or we should be celebrating the fact that you finally made your way to Clipper Nation to follow your boy... or Cav Land and keep riding 'your guys' d**k. I mean pick one... or just keep b****ing about a guy that's still on your "so called" favorite team.

    I'm glad he's still here and will be even happier when he remains on the team for another 4-5 years.
     
  15. Haymitch

    Haymitch Custom Title

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    During KPJ's 3rd year, I said that if Jalen played comparably in his 3rd year then I would declare him a bust. I said this in a post where I was defending Jalen and arguing in favor of my optimism.

    Prior to his outburst at the end of the season, he was actually worse than KPJ year 3. So... yeah.

    Was that outburst a real glimpse at his near future? Or was it more of a hot streak? Unfortunately, I lean more towards the latter. But I am very much hoping I am wrong. So I guess I'm kind of "wait and see" right now but I think there's a higher probability on him peaking as a Malik Monk type than a Devin Booker type, which I was I had hoped for and predicted when we drafted him.
     
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  16. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Well, of course you feel that way, you're more a fan of the draft bust than of the team. You should be embarrassed by that, but self awareness isn't your strong suit.
     
  17. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Before Jalen's March, KPJ's third year was still worse in almost every advanced metric compared to Green's third year like BPM, VORP, RAPTOR etc. so it seems like you are saying this purely out of shooting splits. Green year three was a infinitely better defense than KPJ.

    You have to understand what would happen with KPJ under Ime. He would not make him a primary pnr ball handler which allows him to get in rhythm and he'd make him run around and expend more energy on defense than he ever has had in his career. He'd be scoring less points probably on less efficiency because the ball wouldn't be in his hands nearly as much but would probably up his defense by a lot.
     
  18. FLASH21

    FLASH21 Heart O' Champs

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    My fandom has never been in question here for the Rockets or the Texans.

    You on the other hand, eh, not so much.
     
  19. Haymitch

    Haymitch Custom Title

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    I don't remember how many games it was into the past season when I recalled my prior declaration and compared the stats, but it was when Jalen was playing like crap. The stats were not favorable for Jalen.

    Anyway, I'm not here to defend KPJ or argue in his favor for anything. I thought he did well in his Tank Commander role after taking over for John Wall, but I never wanted him on a team that was trying to win.
     
  20. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Member

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    Okay so it's shooting splits basically that make you make the conclusions you made?
     

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