To me it's more or less a math problem. Suppose you think Jalen has a 10% chance to be a star each year from here on out. If you ride with him, you are basically risking the 90% failure rate where he doesn't develop and the Rockets just stay in this 1-2 rounds of playoffs, and you repeat that for next year, and the year after that until his contract runs out. But if he does turn into a star, you get him on a lower max contract and lock him in long term. Now compare that to KD, who is 90% chance to be a star next year, but makes a lot more money. He has maybe 10% injury issues come playoffs? And has a 20% chance to drop down to not being a star in a year. So you think you will contend for 1 year, maybe 2, maybe at best 3. The numbers here are all made up. But at this point I feel Jalen's odds to become a star is low enough that I'd prefer bringing in someone from the outside. I also used the KD example here because it shows that the Rockets should obviously not mortgage their future for KD. Because although he is a star, his impact is short term and there are other risk factors he brings along. But assuming the Rockets make a near swap of KD for Jalen (maybe with the 10th pick attached and fillers) then yes I'd prefer KD at this point.
I thought it was clear that the Suns don't want Jalen Green and the only scenario they would take on Jalen is with other more attractive prospects.
I wasn’t aware that Morey took things to that accent. Analytics are extremely useful but you can’t maximize output that way. I kind of now understand why some here have a problematic relationship with stats.
When I read this, I got to thinking you aren't any higher on Jalen than I am .... The expectations are similar (outside of the with Durant part) and I wonder, in what world would we really want that guy starting on a team that's supposed to be a playoff contender? If we took the name and face away and just looked at the numbers - I don't think many of us would be saying "lets trade for that guy" with a sub .50 EFG.
I would for sure trade for the the 1st 2 examples 100%, the 3rd one not as much. I think his name, face and AAV is what clouds all the judgement. Lets look below shall we. Player A is 24 20.4p/3.7r/4.5a on 45/37/90 Player B is 24 21.9p/5.2r/4.5a on 47/37/75 Player C is 26 20.2p/4.5r/5.8a on 46/37/87 Player D is 24 21.2p/5.1r/3.5a on 45/36/88 All 4 players are older, are considered much better, thought to have better long term potential and have often been called out by name to be traded for instead of having Jalen Green. Spoiler: spoiler Coby White Quentin Grimes (during his philly stint only) Austin Reaves Trey Murphy Jalen Green also does have his high salary as another focal point, and currently he is overpaid, no ifs ands or buts.
So you're saying Sura's available??? Jalen, plus Phx's 10th pick. I love me some Bobby, but don't think he's worth more than that tbh Make it happen Mikhair!
Grimes only did that for half a season and most teams were not expecting him to be a offensive focal point. He would need to do it for a full season to respect that as his baseline player instead of just a ceiling he can hit when he gets hot. White and Reaves are both going to paid in 25-26 and will get offered as much as Green got, so it is cheaper for 1 season but that is. Reeves also never has to face the other teams best wing defender. He has always gotten the 2nd best or 3rd best defender because of Lebron/Luka. Murphy is already locked in higher contract this fall that is only a savings of about $8 million. He is also not true offensive creator who can go get a bucket. --- To be a title contender, honestly you need an All NBA 1st team/MVP type player and the Rockets don't have a guy with any high certainty to become that. Sengun still has a little time to add to game, but his ceiling right now would probably be All NBA 2nd team once or twice with a few third teams. Amen is a complete wild card right now. He seems a lock to win DPOY at some point, but he needs a giant offensive leap to be in the All NBA 2nd team discussion. His ceiling is MVP/All NBA 1st team but it is a narrow window. So the other option would trying to have 3 guys who complement each other but are consistently at the All NBA 2nd/3rd team level. The issue with all 5 of these players (Green plus your player options A-D) is that none of these guys are EXPECTED to be competing for All-NBA 2nd team and at worst All NBA 3rd team for multiple years in a row. That is what the Rockets need from a guard right now. I could definitely see White, Murphy or Reaves sneak onto the all NBA 3rd team at some point, but not consistently.
You'll find a much larger and more fanatical "analytics/metrics" contingent than you will in most fanbases because of the Morey years in all honesty. Nevermind that most of the "metrics" are literally just arbitrary calculations made up to confirm whichever bias the individual pundit who made up the calculation is trying to push, and not based at all on any kind of statistical objectivity (it's always just how to weight the one variable which proves your "point" - they'll never see it though) simply because of the "Morey's the smartest guy in the room" narrative that was around for so long. It's usually a case of "this sounds way smarter than anything I can think of so it must be true" but most of those metrics don't actually hold up to much scrutiny when you look at the actual results of the players involved, it's always just something that looks fairly plausible on the surface until you dig into it a little. It's why there's continuously new ones and more convoluted ideas, they're not better, they just haven't been disproven as the nonsense they all are yet. Always better to pay somebody who can perform in the game at a high level than a chubby dude who's good at math - did you ever see one of them shoot a ball? They were usually sat writing lines to avoid having to bother when I was growing up...
