Jalen Green will be the Rockets' Numero Uno

I think it is semantic.

You are talking about shooting efficiency. The other posters are talking about scoring efficiency. Those two are two different things.

Shooting efficiency is measured by TS%, sometimes eFG%. These metrics are better than simple FG% because they account for FTs and 3pt FGs. You are correct that the team with higher TS% doesn't always win because they might have more TOs, let the opponent grab more offensive rebounds, etc.

Scoring efficiency is measured by points per possession (PPP). It is also called ORtg. Except for some unusual things such as technical fouls, jump balls, etc., the numbers of possessions are almost always the same for both teams in a game. So if scoring efficiency is PPP and the numbers of possessions are almost always the same for both teams, then the team with higher scoring efficiency should almost always win.

 

Yeah but you can't score more points than your opponent while being less efficient. That's the whole point. You each get the same number of possessions (plus or minus 1). So if the goal is to score more points on the same number of possessions, then the most important thing is how many points you can score on a per possession basis. AKA efficiency. This is why efficiency is king. This is why inefficient scorers are never winners. It's not a coincidence.

 

I appreciate the explanation, i am very aware of how they are calculated though.

I was once very much a junkie of offensive efficency and advanced analytics. I mean i still very much think they are important and help understand what happened in a given game.

Living and dying through the harden/morey era opened my eyes to the nuance of this game. Sure, an offensive rebound continues the possession. But someone recorded a worse shooting % and someone recorded an added rebound. Doesnt technically mwan the offense failed, but when bringing a random player(say jalen) into the equation, it shows him as being less conducive to winning with a worst efficiency. Even if the brick he had led to the offensive rebound that won the game.

At the end of all this, the root of this conversation is about Jalens efficiency, not the teams points per possession efficiency. Even so, its why coaches consistently hammer home "making the right read".

When i asked, whats a turnover, whats the significance of rebounding, it was much more rhetorical than actual. The point of basketball is to score more than the opponent, i will always value scoring over defense because of this. But limiting not only "possessions" but also rather shot attempts is quite important to me. Turnovers are important. Free throws are important. Rebounding is important. Scoring is the most important.

What is more important? A player who misses 3 shots at the rim, but grabs all 3 rebounds and eventually makes it. Or the player who makes it the first attempt?

Technically, they are valued at the same point per possession. Yet when you add variables and nuance like the rebounding possibility, its clear the 2nd player is better and more reliable.

Statitistics, all of them, have flaws.

 

You win 88 - 86

AKA scoring the most points wins the game, while trying to play some defense sprinkled in to cause missed shots etc to aid the offense

So if the offense isn't clicking efficiently it has the defense to lean on, to keep the other team held down somewhat, but at the end of the day the team who has the most total team points win no matter of your team shot 38% from field and my team shot 44%, you won the game 88 - 86

Efficiency and points go hand in hand, efficiency Derives from Points scored (or FG misses etc)

Just like points/stats Derive from the player showcasing their game on the hardwood for them to keep tally of





It is what it be

 

The Rockets are definitely looking for that superstar type player this summer. With that in mind, they are going to have to add players in addition to picks to make that happen. Whether Jalen stays or goes is going to depend on what value the other team puts on our players. If Jalen is the primary player the other team wants, he is gone. It also depends on what position the player we are getting plays.

 

What do you define as a minimum good efficiency? I see him eventually as a volume scorer with above average efficiency. Don’t think he’s ever going to be the elite efficiency SG. In his prime I think we’re talking about 25-28 ppg. At that volume what’s a good efficiency?

At present his efficiency is just bad. He needs to take much simpler jumpers and convert a couple of those opportunities to assists. That would balance his game out nicely. He’s been trending in that direction recently so maybe a lightbulb has gone on.

It completely depends on the player we’re acquiring. If you’re getting someone worth the max or near it, then you have to include Jalen if they want him. You also have to bench Cam in this scenario.

Who are we getting that’s a more attractive situation than Cam + Jalen on small and flexible contracts after 1 full year of Udoka’s coaching? It’s not going to be easy for us to turn that down. Costs nothing and chances of coming out with an elite scorer are high.

We best not settle for a barely all star type. That’s a waste of our time.

 

That is gonna be difficult when the Jazz, OKC, San Antonio, the Knickerbockers etc all have tons of picks and are in pole position.

 

Here's a list of leading PPG and their TS%

For Guards that score over 25 points a game this season, the lowest TS% is Fox at 56.8% who also averages 6.7 assists a game. Basically there are no inefficient "volume" scorers in the league at the moment. Most hover between 58-60% TS.

basically Jalen is either reaches that level of efficiency, or he will not even sniff 25 PPG of counting stats.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=ppg+leaders+2023-24+and+ts%

 

I don’t really know, it’s a hard question to answer. Like if I said +1.5% rTS, does that mean he’s a failure if he’s at 1.4? So it’s tough for me to put a number on it. It’s also not a binary, it’s not like it’s a yes or no, more efficient is always better and less is always worse. And like BigMaloe pointed out, offensive efficiency is way more than just ts%. So you need to take a more holistic view of his game. Maybe this is a whole lot of words to just say “idk man” and it kind of is. But you can look at every other good effective scorer in the league, and plot their ts, and if Jalen is lower than every single one of them (like he is now) then that’s probably not good enough. And if he somewhere in the middle of that pack, then that’s probably good enough.

 

Well deserved, congrats to Jalen.

 

I feel like this will offend more posters here than make posters happy.

 

Nice. He has to get into that 57%-60% range but he’s more likely to lead in volume than efficiency.

 

Doesn’t the NBA know these games don’t count because it’s post ASB? Must be a fake award.

 

Come on, now. It's great to see him play well, especially since the team is winning in the process.
These (ABOVE) are #2 draft pick stats.
Since he doesn't seem to play to that potential for a full season, many of us have learned to watch with baited breath and hope the run continues.

 

He hasn't even worked out how to use his athletic gifts yet

 

The biggest thing for me lately has been his finishing around the rim. He has been finishing in traffic and on hard angles as well lately.

 

Ah yes, the "Kobe assist" for the first player. That Kobe's chuck-up shots had unseen value as "possession preservers". Its making use of possession instead of a turnover. Its giving his team chance at offensive rebound to keep possession going, when "lesser players" wouldnt even get a shot up. Chucking keeping the machine lubed up instead of stagnant lol. That gravity (Helping out Jalen Green fans with some ammo to support his game)

 

Very encouraging, me likes.

Small sample sizes there, but pay attention to that 54% FG by Brunson. That is true net scorching shooting. THAT is what makes great trustworthy play. Its not about anti-Green, its thats where the real field is. Its not made up, thats the real expectation barometer

Green is at 49% FG past 3-5 games. That is very nice. He got Player of Week deservingly. Nitpicky, that is within what most star players can occassionally do. Which Green doesnt do. This is outstanding for Green & Rockets. Thats also Jaylen Brown any given week

We know Brunson is capable of strings of 54% games. Its lying to say that he isnt. Its what makes Brunson an All Star. Its babying Green to say we cant give him that standard to shoot for

Honesty I'd rather 49% over 23 games instead of 54% for 3 games. But Green getting to mid 50's for strings is what gets him past Jordan Poole, KPJ level toward the better than Zach Lavine / Jamal Murray range and beyond. Dont settle, basically. You want Numero Uno, do what the Numero Unos actually do

 

In a nutshell, he’s going to the rim without expecting a foul and with 100% intention of finishing every single attempt. That’s the biggest change in his game. It has been a major concentration issue, hopefully it sticks.

It’s making defenders sag off him (threat of driving to an unprotected rim) and that’s giving him more space on 3pt shots too. That’s reducing the need for him to take too many mid range shots and more difficult 3’s (which he’s bad at).

He’s incredibly good at beating a defense that isn’t set yet or beat his man off the dribble. When your 5 can stretch the floor, beating your man is 90% of the battle. This style of play really suits him. I’d like to see him still swap a couple of shots for a couple of assists.

We had people who said when Sengun went down that Jalen needs to step up. Well, here’s your step up. More to come. It’s looking like he’s going to play well for most of the remaining games.