I see that for Sengun also given he has a worse scoring efficiency than Green on lower volume to boot. I love analysis that comes from people's asses.
The answer isn't Amen "taking over the reigns". You do know Jalen is like tenth in the league in clutch points right? I want to check your head space to see if you are reasonable with this question. With the defense set, who is better at stealing the point of attack defense? Green OR Amen in terms of shot making AND ball security. Green has been much better also the last month at passing off of blitzes. He didn't have a turnover from that against the Grizzles. He had two turnovers last game. One on a fast break getting stripped at the rim and one at the baseline against Daniels.
Again, mine was a pro-Jalen post about improvement and trajectory. I don't believe you read either of my full posts. I seem to have touched a nerve by criticizing Jalen's defense. I already mentioned much of it but here it goes- Jalen often still makes poor decisions on defense. He often misses defensive rotations. He may close out on a 3-point shooter that is not a good shooter. He may fail to close out on a 3-point shooter who is a good shooter. He often loses his man with defensive rebounding. His hands are not particularly good which results in a surprising lack of steals for a player so athletic. Back to my original posts though, his defense has improved markedly and I think will continue to do so with elite defensive coaching. His on-ball defense is really good and his quickness and athleticism allow him to stick with almost any guard in the league. His defensive IQ is poor but improving. I think he was never really asked to play much defense before his NBA career. I think his first two seasons in the NBA we were tanking and nobody emphasized defense to him. Udoka has had 1-1/2 seasons to turn him around. He is well on his way. I like Jalen a lot and I've made several posts about my enthusiasm for his future.
That's a good short term fix, but honestly in the playoffs we will need to score some iso points. Even the worst defense in the playoffs is going to force you into some iso points. Our best bet there is to create spacing for Sengun and Green. Honestly if we need those type of points and we have Jabari, the answer is: Run & ISO: Jabari Tari (need the transition, rebounds and wingspan) Amen Green Holiday/FVV or Halfcourt ISO: Amen (they have to guard him with a big, so no chance of stopping him from scoring unless they go super small, which will again help Jalen) Jabari Brooks Green Holiday/FVV That's a lineup where Amen and Green will not get swiped at on the way and at the rim all the time. We can generate some stuff there. It's the kind of way MDA would force you into a mismatch if you had Amen.
I would actually argue the main reason he has become average to above average defensively is because he makes far less rotation mistakes then he used to. He also does a significantly better job of sealing and boxing out on the boards. Hes also much improved with his hip fluidity and staying in front of his man in isolation. He does have lapses here and there dont get me wrong but nearly every player does.
I honestly don't see the poor decisions on rotations any more than the other guys on the team. The disadvantage compared to Amen or Tari is just unadulterated size advantage they have where sometimes a dude just scores on Green even if he's smoothering them when someone like Amen or Tari wouldnt let them get a shot off probably or cause a bad miss because of their added length. But Green to me has improved tremendously with communication and smart switching such as commuting with teammates to seamlessly switch back to a wing or guard when he is switched on to a big. You see the occasional bad out of control close out but you see that with every player.
Pffft harden is actually a good defensive player or u just watching that smear lowlights of him half assing on defense? If Jalen is a below average on defense, we wouldn't b top 5 it's that simple. The excuse that he's getting carried by the likes of the other starters while being the weakest link makes no sense. Folks would easily just keep hounding him on defense to score at will. It makes me wonder if u actually watch the games if u think green defense is below average. Cause if that's below average what does average even look like in your head
Last 30 games: 58 TS% 45/38/87 splits 22.5 ppg Also happens to be roughly what I think we'll get from him the rest of the season, maybe slightly higher ppg.
Do you think there's a path to him ACUALLY being a "numbero uno" which is what this thread suggests? The only guard in the league currently who's a legit number 1 is shai, he's at 32.5 ppg on 64% TS. He also gets you 6 assists, jalen is still under 3. Assuming it's reasonable to say that jalen will never be an elite playmaker, do you think it's possible he can get to around 30-32 ppg on 62% or better TS? His January is almost 26 ppg on 60% TS which is pretty solid.
Numero uno can mean different things to different people and on different teams. I don't think the Rockets need a numero uno. I think they have 3 potential superstars with very high ceilings and floors. I'll take Jalen's current production which would make him a perennial all-star, but I think he will continue to grow especially in court vision which I think is his major weakness at this point. Ime spoke of a vision a long time ago of having multiple facilitators. He was slow to get there, but Jabari's injury made the decision for him. Now we have 4 starters capable of leading the half-court offense on any given night with any given match-up.
Jalen's size may occasionally be a disadvantage but I think a comparison with FVV is useful. FVV is much smaller than Jalen but manages to be an excellent defender due to experience, quick decisions, great hands and toughness. Jalen has improved but is clearly a weaker defensive player than Fred. Regardless, I never said Jalen 2025 is a bad defensive player. My point was that Jalen 2023 was a bad defender and has markedly improved. There aren't a lot 22-year old guards in the NBA who average over 20 ppg who are good defensive players. I hope he continues to improve and we stop arguing over semantics.
SG is a PG, surrounded by better players and has the ball in his hands way more than JG Edward’s is most likely the best comp to JG because Booker is playing too much PG this year also
booker isn't a numero uno so jalen would have to surpass him pretty considerably, ant does have the talent but hasn't gotten there yet
Yes but I think people have amnesia about how such stuff happens. If you're willing to not ignore the fact that there was negative development in Jalen's career starting 1 year before the NBA and 2 years into the NBA, you'll see a not so dissimilar path to Shai. Shai's 3rd year is similar to Jalen's 4th year so Jalen's a year behind I'd say. But from 2nd year Shai went 19, 23, 24 ppg before exploding into 31 and 30 ppg. From a purely scoring perspective, I do see a similar path for Jalen but it's harder to score that much when you don't dominate the ball for your team. It's easier to do it when you first check if you have a good shot then decide if you want to set up the rest of the team. I think under Udoka, Shai would struggle to get his 32ppg as well. I think he would be closer to 28. To be more specific with my own projection, I think at age 26 like Shai, Jalen will be able to put up something like: 27ppg 49/37/88 splits and 6+ FTA (don't know what TS% that would translate to but around 60%) Legit two way player, excellent at hounding PG's and quick SG's, significantly more muscle On defense I see them very similar as well. I can see Jalen being around as good as him defensively, which is quite good for a scoring guard. Shai's jumpshot is still shaky btw. They're not too dissimilar in that regard - Jalen shoots a lower percentage but at a way higher volume. Shai has never taken more than 5.7 attempts, Jalen has never taken less than that - I've always said that's a stupid thing about Jalen's development. Every season of his career he's taking more 3's than he can make decently and it makes him look worse than he is as a shooter. Right now though if we finish the season with Jalen averaging 36% + on 8+ attempts that right there will be the biggest future differentiator between Green and Shai. That's a level of shooting Shai doesn't seem very close to reaching despite being 3 years older and it's a major advantage for Jalen in terms of being compatible with a variety of a great players. The difference I see is with Shai you get more assists and FT's even if it was due to better circumstances. Jalen has to bridge that gap with improving at those 2 things a little. However where Jalen brings his differentiation is he's more of a team player, less selfish, way more willing to do dirty work, jump for loose balls, do what's best for the team, connected with his teammates, etc. That has significant impact on the win column too. I think they're different players. Shai has some downsides of his own. He wants to dominate the ball which is a concentration risk for your offense (like our Harden days). I'm not a fan of his attitude and personality. However, he's one of the best in the game. Probably 2nd best this season if not best. That's a high bar for Jalen to reach, everything has to go right for that to happen. I have a hunch that the moment we witness average spacing in the starting lineup, we will be surprised at how much more easily Jalen and Amen can produce points for us.
The issue with Jalen being a "numero uno" is that you never know which version of him you are going to get. If you got the version of him from his most recent 8 game hot streak where he went off for 30.8 points hitting 51.3% from 3 and an stellar 63.5% TS% with very respectable defense.....if you got that most of the time, he's an MVP candidate and future HOFer If you get the 19.5 points hitting only 32% from 3 with a pathetic 48.3% TS% that he's put up since the most recent 8 game hot streak or even the 19.4 points hitting only 31.6% from 3 with a bad 52.8% TS% that he put up the entire season before the most recent 8 game hot streak.....well, that's not even a starting caliber player. We need the "normal" to be something closer to the streak Jalen, and the rare exceptions to be....well, what we've gotten from him his entire career outside of the few brief hot streaks if he's ever to be a "numero uno" type....or even a starter. Right now, I think he's best used as a 6th man, so you can expand the minutes during the hot streaks when they happen, without having to suffer quite as much during the typical Jalen performance.
Shai is not the best player in the league, let's not be silly. Few things though, Shai does have a better % from 3 than jalen so idk you can say that for sure jalen will shoot better. Also, efficiency wise the gap is massive. Shai went 99-101-109, jalen has never gotten to league average. I'll fully admit i had fully given up on jalen and of course like many others have gotten sucked back in, but his on/off stuff is extremely disturbing. Fully agree on not liking shai though.
Ya, seeing him put up a stretch of good efficiency where he shoots a normal % from 3 is important. Those streaks where he shoots 50% are kinda pointless since it's never gonna be sustainable. Can he have a 60 TS where he shoots 35-37% from 3? That's the key IMO.
Shai is a way worse shooter than Jalen. This season his 7th in the NBA he's at his career highs with 5.7 attempts and 35.7%. There's one short season where he shot better, but that was a fluke. The other 5 seasons he's 33%. On lousy volumes too, like 2-4 attempts per game. He's not a good shooter. Jalen is taking 1 fewer attempt than Damian Lillard, to be taking 8+ is insane for him. That he's hitting a hair under league average is crazy to me because he has sucked as a shooter at less than that volume every year of his career (3 consecutive years before this). I thought that to get to this % he'd have to drop his attempts to 4-5 like Shai/Ja. Sorry he's in a different shooting tier than them if he improves this at all. He has a 30 game stretch shooting 38% right now. 30 games and 8+ attempts is no joke for 3pt shooting consistency. I wonder if Shai/Ja have ever done that in their lives even at their hottest. Efficiency wise, gap is definitely massive but that's where spacing and muscle comes in. I know from Harden FT's have a massive impact on TS% and Jalen is not getting the quantity that's absolutely necessary for his archetype and role. If he's not getting 6-8 FT's, this is flat out not going to work long term. That's where lots more assists get generated too, he needs to improve at kickouts. Don't give up on Jalen. Udoka is serious.
For sure, i'm very much back to being hopeful. My concern is how much his crazy 8 games prop up his percentages. Obviously those games are part of it, but what's his 3 pt% without those crazy games. He shot terrible in November, terrible in december, which is a concern.
If you analyze the batt players in the league like Shai, Luka, Ant you can break down their games and see that their efficiencies are propped up by nights they were scorching. I think people who just started watching this era and only follow one team in the NBA don't understand that the modern NBA guard has significantly more variance on their efficiency game to game. All these modern superstars have quite a bit of 5-16 nights sprinkled in between their dominant games. If Green ever becomes a star or superstar, rest assured he will still have atrocious nights.
