The eye test shows me someone who can't break down defenses against set half court defenses because he stops his dribble very easily when defenders are actually set. He is a product of being a one man fast break and being elite at getting offensive rebounds and put backs. Show me tape of him handling blitzes and using a handle to get out of it. Amen drives to the rim off of drive and kicks from Green or Sengun and when defenders are back peddling in transition. Green "settles" because you'd settle a lot more also when half court defenses are squared in on you and you have the ability to go Fuego from three. It's not like the man can't by himself win a game for us from shear hot shooting from three(he can also get us out of games to which is the frustrating part about Green). But defenders do fear Green going hot unlike Amen. Amen doesn't have that ability to "be hot" so he best never settle so he's going to pass out when defenders are set against him or try something and end up with the ball behind him because his handle is loose for now. Let's put it this way. Amen's most productive stretch was playing the role of a big. So when you just compare paint buckets between Green and Amen you are essentially comparing a dude who was playing the dunker spot or short roll guy vs a guard who had to create his looks at the rim off the dribble. So Amen theoretically can even have more paint buckets than Green and still be a worse driver because big men get paint buckets through things like offensive rebounds and dump offs by guys like Green getting to the rim.
Plus check out the tracking drives per 36.mins on stats.nba.com And dont forget we comparing a 3rd yr as much minutes touches and greenlight jalen Vs a rookie amen
Is Amen attacking a bad close out count as a drive? Is Amen being cleared out at the wing spot where he only had to beat one defender to have a clean dunk at the rim considered a "drive"? The drives Green does are when defenders are designating their point of attack defense towards the primary pnr ball handler in Green. That's where most of his drives come from. Amen's drives will come from close outs and iso work ng clear outs. I was actually kinda upset at Ime for limiting iso wing clear outs for Green. When Green just has one defender between him and the rim it's easy buckets for him and he only had a handful of those looks last season. Almost all his drives are trying to beat the levels of defense set to stop him.
You keep using Jalen's creation ability to excuse his inefficient shooting. If he isn't good at shooting those difficult shots he "creates" then he shouldn't be shooting them so much. If he's really good at creating, then his assist numbers should be much higher. The thing is, as Ime kept implying, Jalen is a poor court reader. Amen is much better at vision and that's why he has been very effective even without a lick of shooting ability. BTW, if Amen is the product of one-man fast breaks as you claim, then why isn't Jalen, who is supposed to be as fast, getting as many one-man fast break opportunities?
Green is a one man fast break also? In fact I'd say he's better in that regard because she has a more advanced lay up package and more advanced ball handling package to go by multiple defenders and make awkward finishes. Amen has as high amount of paint jackets for a guard because he is a one man fast break AND in the half court plays a Clint Capella/Draymond Green hybrid role as a rim running big and short roll playmaker. That's my point. Most of his rim buckets were from rolling to the rim or put backs Look dude Jalen as a 19-22 year old self creating guard asked to do it all at his age is getting efficiency numbers similar to a bunch of other young guards who became stars. Guys like Booker and Ant were hovering in the mid 50 ts% for the first few years of their career. It's so funny how a dude who leads the team in usage and is near the top in minutes who has a poor individual scoring efficiency has the offense tank when he's resting on the bench. The only player out of the main rotation where he offense tanks more they are absent on the court is FVV. Literally the only player where the team is even worse on offense when resting. https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/11/onoff#tab-team_efficiency So why is that? Because you don't need direct assists to help a offense. The mere initial break down of a perimeter defense attracting help defenders causes a chain reacrion that often leads to secondary and tertiary assists. That's why self creation is important. And not just self creation but he ability to create separation from a defender at will and causing help defenders to scramble and be out of position.
If people keep on bringing up the claim that Green's self creation last season had no impact on the team with statements like "what's the point of his ability if it's on low efficiency" hell ya I'll bring up that the offense implodes when Green is resting. The more usage a player has the less their on off team offensive efficiency numbers are a fluke because they are a large reason for the offensive production being poor or good when you have the highest usage. So Green having the combo of poor individual efficiency, high usage and high on/off impact on team offensive efficiency says something. Any hater can always just point out his overall on/off with his poor defensive on/off metrics so go at it you SOFs I only bring it up when a specific claim about his ability to self create has no impact on the team or even worse the claim that Green harms the team's offense. If people on a Rocket message board spam the narrative that the reason the Rockets have a bad offense is because of our starting sg, damn straight I'm going to point out the fact that this team's offense efficiency plummets when Green rests. Do you see me mentioning his on/off impact on offense when simply someone says "Green needs to improve his shooting efficiency" ? No. Because that's a statement I agree with. Again if someone says that Green makes the offense worse or his ability to break perimeter defenses doesn't matter at all because of poor individual efficiency im bringing it up and the only thing that can stop me is you blocking me.
Relax man, take it easy! I am no Green hater by any means, I hope that he puts it together. I appreciate his improvement and I see that he is learning the game. All good! I just don't value the on/off stat as indicator of any sort of impact. - It is very noisy. Starting 5 guys play around 30+ minutes with mostly set rotations. Other 5s have very few total minutes together which makes it hard to conclude something about what happens there. - More importantly, it matter what happens when he is on the court, his contribution etc., not relative to his replacement or what the team can do without him. - I also remember on/off stat mentioned by bobbythegreat in every single post for kpj one season until next season when kpj had one of the worst in the team. Nothing really changed about kpj. the stat doesn't indicate much about the player.
Noise would be referring to lower sample size, or a low usage player. The higher the usage, the more miniatures you play the less noise there is with your impact. It's a metric that is more reliable the closer the situation between the two players being compared are. If the two players compared are starters on the same team, their on/off differences have more value in it having value in evaluation of on court play. Two players on different team, on/off comparison has less value. So amongst the starters Green has the second best offensive impact and the worst defensive impact. That's probably the most useful evaluation that can be drawn from on/off impact.
Maybe Jalen needs to learn to do more cutting than self creating. What good is creating separation at will and causing help defenders to scramble but can't hit the shot or make the pass to a open guy? A creator that can't consistently create good shots for himself and his teammates isn't a very good creator. What Jalen needs to do in order to become a star level player is either improve his ability to hit difficult shots like other elite scorers do or improve his IQ in making better decisions, or both.
That specific on-off stat is very interesting. Some observations regarding this stat: Atlanta Hawks: 1. Saddiq Bey +8.2 2. Bogdan Bogdanovic +4.4 3. Trae Young +2.1 4. Dejounte Murray +0.8 5. Jalen Johnson -4.4 Looks like Saddiq Bey is the most vital player for the Hawks offense. Bam Adebayo is dead last among Miami Heat starters with -7.6. His Ortg is second highest among starters in the team and he is in general their most efficient volume scorer. Zion Williamson is last among Pelicans starters. Had a great season, maybe his best after his second one. Looks like he didn't matter much. Brandon Ingram is the first and Pelicans are trying to get rid of him. How could this be? Jalen Williams is last among OKC starters with a mind blowing -4.6. Dort and Giddey are higher than Chet. Then what's with all the hype surrounding those Chet and JDub guys. They shouldn't have traded Giddey. Nurkic and Grayson Allen are higher than Kevin Durant. All Suns fans must've been very happy with Nurkic this season. Oh wait... they are probably not smart enough to see what he brings to the table. Gary Trent Jr. is the first among Raptors starters. But most Raptors fans think he is a low iq inefficient guard... They clearly haven't seen this stat. Zach Lavine is last among Bulls starters with -4.7. He's probably a defensive specialist or something. Bismack Biyombo is higher than Jaren Jackson Jr. That's the outcome I expect when I look at an offensive stat. (Edit: Biyombo is not a starter. So this is might not be all too surprising. My bad.) Looks like an accurate stat to me.
Jalen is clearly the best player in the league No other player gets more from opposing defenses thrown at him if only he had slightly better teammates he would have led us to the finals he is the best scorer of all time . He creates so much his defense is improving rapidly and he is on track to be a top 3 defender in the game compared to him , lebron is one dimensional he will get all other players wives pregnant
I mean I'm glad you are through the roof exciting about the kid. But I see him as a promising young potential star. Maybe a more athletic Devin Booker if he hits his ceiling. But you do you man.
Again, with higher usage guys it has more relevance as their play on the court will have a impact positive or negative due to them being heavily involved on offense. For lower usage role players it definitely will have more noise. You can find any metric and find data points that don't fit perceptions.
Here are the 5 man line up stats without Green: https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/a...egular Season&TeamID=1610612745&slug=advanced The most used three line ups are: TEAM GP MIN ORTG DRTG NETRTG F. VanVleet - D. Brooks - A. Holiday - J. Tate - A. Sengun HOU 15 34 93.6 85.5 8.1 74.1 2.50 19.0 16.7 87.5 47.3 0.1 47.8 49.8 107.18 52.5 F. VanVleet - A. Holiday - J. Tate - A. Sengun - T. Eason HOU 13 28 123.3 85.2 38.1 64.0 3.20 19.0 27.6 72.4 50.0 0.1 56.5 62.0 103.65 66.7 F. VanVleet - D. Brooks - A. Holiday - A. Sengun - J. Smith Jr. HOU 9 27 121.1 101.8 19.3 52.2 4.00 15.8 25.9 75.8 53.3 0.1 54.2 60.7 100.78 64.0 The 93.6 is the main reason why on/off offense number for Green is positive. It is a defensive 5, it is a coaching choice. And you can see that the second and third used 5s have very good offensive ratings despite not being particularly strong offensive line-ups. And yes these numbers are small.
Just finding any bit of reaching to discredit any positive about Green huh. You put effort into it also.
Not at all, we are having a discussion about a stat, and what it implies. I am not even arguing whether jalen is good or bad. I am just pointing out that the jump from on/off numbers to offensive impact is unfounded. Digging into it a little bit more, that 5 with 93 offensive rating is one of the lowest offensive ratings for the rockets. There are two more 5s that has lower offensive rating: F. VanVleet - D. Brooks - J. Green - A. Sengun - T. Eason HOU 5 28 90.2 101.7 -11.5 56.5 2.17 15.1 34.2 63.6 47.9 0.1 42.5 44.2 101.55 43.8 D. Brooks - J. Green - A. Sengun - A. Thompson - C. Whitmore HOU 6 24 89.3 111.1 -21.8 65.0 1.30 16.3 36.7 78.6 56.9 0.2 43.0 46.3 111.84 41.4 Both involve jalen green but since these numbers are bundled with all of other jalen green minutes, you don't get to see them. The one that happened in the smaller observation frame has a huge impact on the on/off number. That's where the small sample size comes in. Also that 93 offensive rating is a coaching choice and since it has a +8.1 netrating, ime is not bothered by the low offensive production at all. As I said many times, I think and hope that Jalen will be good. I also think the learning and development curve will be slower than what his athletic talent and draft position suggests.
