Jalen Green vs Ant Edwards - who will be the better combo/sg when all is said and done

Impressive analysis.

 

Not sure how to find data that granular. I'm not subscribed to Synergy, for example. It's just a hunch based on the eye test thus far in their careers and on various advanced stats favoring Giddey (PER, VORP, WS, BPM) and also based on us sucking and OKC not sucking.

It's always going to be difficult to separate individual contributions from team contributions in basketball.

I'm not that attached to the idea that Giddey has been the better player so far, but I do think it's a reasonable statement.

From the perspective of scouting/eye test, yes, I do believe Green will have the better career if all else is equal (health, coaching, etc). I think Giddey is much closer to his ceiling as a player.

 

I really like Giddey, but am not sure I would trade Jalen Green for him right now, if I am a GM. I’d look to trade Green next offseason.

First, as this list showed, Giddey’s value now is higher, so I’d have to attach assets to Green, most likely. To what end?
Giddey needs the ball to be making plays, but we have Sengun, FVV, KPJ and maybe this Amen kid who are set to be making plays. Then we have Dillon Brooks who thinks he is good at making plays, so he’ll eat possessions, too.

If I am running the Rockets, I’ll try to get Green and KPJ to play off-ball, they are both quite good at it, actually. Hopefully that helps the team more than getting another playmaker competing for possessions.

Then, I am counting on Jalen Green to be serious about getting his extension, and the videos this summer suggest that he is indeed. So that gives me hope that he raises his trade value and I can trade him next offseason for whatever we need. If we need a playmaker we make a run at Giddey, who will no doubt be available as the fit with Shai is awkward. If we need something else we get something else. Get some higher value back and let another team deal with Green’s extension.

 

So, if Jalen plays great next season, 25ppg scorer with improved defense and looking like a potential franchise player, you'd be happy because we can trade him then? Brilliant!

 

Yeah, that’s what I’d do, simply because I don’t trust what happens after he gets his money. I just get this weak-sauce vibe from him.

 

Well, if he plays that good next season, he's definitely not getting traded, lol. You just gotta trust he'll keep it up!

 

Yeah, that’s the thing, you never know. Take Ayton, for example, he looked like he’d gotten on with the program in his extension year, got his bag, and then checked out completely. I’m saying, if I am the one making this decision I’d sell high, but doesn’t mean it’s the right decision.

 

What if you are a bad judge of character that determines work ethic?

I think you were raised in a regressive household that confused machismo with work ethic. A certain type of visual appearance must satisfy you to determine that someone "works hard". They have to conform to similar hobbies that you like also. If they enjoy something in life as a hobby that you don't enjoy you are that type of person who makes character evaluations based on that.

So maybe you simply aren't a good judge of work ethic?

I think you are the type of person who might see a 22 year old girl with died blue hair and think she's some lazy entitled spoiled person just by that died hair color.

 

This is not even a regular job, this is a league for extremely driven people. Households, girls with died hair, that’s not really related to the NBA. There are really only a few hundred jobs we’re talking about and for the type of money that Green will probably demand we’re talking 50 or fewer slots. I’d be weary to commit a Max slot or close to it to Jalen Green.

 

You are weary based on your perception of work ethic and that perception is based on regressive aspects of traditional society that confuses machismo with work ethic. That's the core issue you here.

Your response here is simply regurgitating your premise in different wording that you don't trust his work ethic. And I'm saying the evaluation of "work ethic" is based on regressive principles of our culture.

 

And I am telling you that this has nothing to do with ‘work ethics’ or "society", it has to do with the National Basketball Association. The standards are very, very different.

Kelvin Cato didn’t dye his hair, or wear dresses but checked out after he got his bag. Then we found out that he wanted to write children’s books… Green may have outstanding work ethics as underwear model or dress designer, question is does he have the mental edge of an NBA superstar?

 

Another example of what I'm referring to.

You translate hobbies that you don't enjoy with people not having work ethic in their main career path.

If his hobby was going on Twitter ranting about wokeism instead liking fashion posts, would you change your mind about his work ethic? You'd probably say no because you know that would make it very obvious what type of person you are but given your post history and how you judge character and gumption, yes I think him dedicating 20 hours a week to Twitter activism fighting "the woke mind virus" instead of spending 1 hours a week enjoying fashion related content would not make you make these claims about work ethic.

It's simply a case of a human enjoying different things than you making you judge basic character traits of an individual.

 

WTF are you talking about? If Green was out there ranting like some FOX News host I’d give him a max? No way! Stop with this nonsense. I’m talking about the all-consuming desire to beat people up on the basketball court that NBA superstars have.

 

Your claim of him not wanting "to fight NBA players on the court" is based on as you have just referenced... his hobbies.

Your last post I replied to used his hobby as a point of evidence.

Hence your idea of work ethic is superficial and is based on culture rather than actual work ethic.

"Nancy hobbies" like fashion for you indicate a desire to "not be the best" at his sport.

You are explicitly using his hobby of fashion as a point of evidence.

And yes I'm pretty confident if he just spent the time he does on social media with fashion on b****ing shoot "wokeness" or something like that you wouldn't be bringing up these issues questioning his work ethic.

 

Ant can be debated, but Giddey is a notch below. The narrative on Giddey's improved shooting, which true; he was still below league average last year. Doesn't mean he won't continue to improve, but just adding context.

On a simplistic view (last season)
Green still edges Giddey out in TS% 53.8% over 53.3%. Green's 3p% 33.8% > Giddey 32.5%, but Green's volume is much higher 7.3 3pa vs Giddey's 3.1.

As far as hot spots go; Giddey have two areas he's decent at, the left wing (3pt line) and the left block, but cold everywhere else. Green is more versatile around the entire court.

shot charts.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/giddey-shot-chart-2023
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/jalen-green-shot-chart-2023

On the shooting, Giddey did improve (for himself), but it's not like he leaped over Green in scoring.
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Teams ask guys to do different things; FVV will be the playmaker next year; so comparing Green's to Giddey is bit pointless right now.

Green does need to take a leap, but I'm not trading Green for Giddey.

 

Regarding just the shooting, I think the only thing people will take issue with is that Jalen coming into the league was a scorer/shooter/gunner whereas Giddey was a big forward type who could pass the hell out of the ball and had great basketball IQ. Some would say that Jalen's TS% being around Giddey's is a knock on Jalen since everybody knew Giddey couldn't shoot and that was a weakness (even from the shorter NBL 3 pt. line). Giddey came in and was horrific at 3 point shooting (as expected). He has since improved to being just, well... poor.

For Jalen Green to be the Jalen Green people expect, you'd like to see him shooting 36%+ on 3's while for Giddey, shooting 36% would be a hell of a surprise and just gravy because his IQ and passing were as expected coming into the league. Both of these guys have time to improve. They're still really young.

 

Edwards is in year 4 while Green is in year 3. Is it fair to compare the 2 at this point in their careers? If we were to compare them, then let’s take a look at both their second seasons in the league. The numbers are overall very similar. But one standout is Green’s overall % of unassisted points scored is higher in multiple categories. This means he can get buckets by himself better than Edwards.

Edwards gets slightly more rebounds and steals. He also has higher% in restricted area and overall 3%. Edwards layup % better.

Green has slightly more ppg. Green has a better % in non restricted area in the paint as well as 5-19ft. Green has better jumpshot % and better midrange %. Green’s unassisted % of points scored is also better meaning he gets buckets by himself better.

Edwards:
Min: 34.3 PTS: 21.3 FGA: 17.3 FG%: 44.1
3%: 35.7 Reb: 4.8 Asst: 3.8 Stl: 1.5

Less 5ft: 59.8%
5-9 ft: 32.9%
10-14 ft: 35.8%
15-19 ft: 32.7%
20-24ft: 33%
25-29ft: 37.7%

Restricted Area: 62.7% unasst% 60.9
Paint (Non RA): 31.8% unasst% 71.4
Mid Range: 35.2%
Jumpshot: 36% Unasst: 50.9%
Layup: 53.5% Unasst: 65.6%

Green:
Min: 34.2 PTS: 22.1 FGA: 17.9 FG%: 41.6
3%: 33.8 Reb: 3.7 Asst: 3.7 Stl: 0.8

Less 5ft: 53.5%
5-9 ft: 36%
10-14 ft: 44.3%
15-19 ft: 42.3%
20-24ft: 27.9%
25-29ft: 36%

Restricted Area: 55.2% unasst% 59.6
Paint (Non RA): 39.4% unasst%: 78.8%
Mid Range: 39.9%
Jumpshot: 36.4% Unasst: 54.1%
Layup: 46.4% Unasst: 68.1%

 

The big difference is in efficiency, and the biggest difference there is making layups. The 3P% is close enough - both need to improve. But converting at the rim is where Green needs to step up significantly. He’s good at getting fouled, but needs to make some as well. Hopefully he has actually put on some muscle - seems that way but hard to tell from photos.

 

Interesting because the numbers show Edwards with higher layup% and higher Restricted Area %. But Green gets fouled more in the paint. This may explain the lower FG% in the RA. He shot 463 FT to Edwards 280 in their respective 2nd years. Edwards size and strength may explain the higher % but Green also shoots more floaters and finger rolls 5ft and further away as indicated by his stats. Green has a higher % outside RA. Does Green shoot further out due to his lack of size and strength? This is an unknown. Perhaps?

 

Yeah I agree that strength and conditioning would help as he gets fouled a lot in the paint and restricted area. But my point is the numbers show the players being very close in performance in their year 2 with Green edging Edwards in multiple categories. The narrative that Edwards is leaps and bounds ahead of Green is a fallacy and not true.