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J.J. Watt Extension Prediction

Discussion in 'Houston Texans' started by pugsly8422, Jan 15, 2014.

  1. pugsly8422

    pugsly8422 Contributing Member

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    In case you don't want to read it all, based on a lot of information, they predict J.J. getting:

    6 years, $142,272,798
    Average annual salary - $23,712,133
    Guaranteed - $55,486,392 (39%)

    It's a lot of information, too much to paste, so here's the link.


    It's hard to imagine tying up 20% of your cap in a single player, even if that player is a lock as a top 1-2 defensive player year end and year out, and widely considered the best in the league. Unless it's your franchise QB, I think this is just too much money. Our options seem to be:

    1) Now that he has been in the league for 3 years, we can officially extend him. How much is too much?
    2) Before the upcoming season (basically by May 2014), we could exercise his 5th year. This would pay him about $8.5m in his 5th year.
    2b) If we choose option #2, we could then franchise him for up to 3 years after his 5th year.
    3) Try to extend him after the 2014 season. The problem with this is, our cap will almost surely be higher, which means we may have to pay him even more.

    I would hate to lose J.J., but if you're going to pay someone that much money, they have to have more affect on your team than he is capable of (like a franchise QB) at his position. There's only so much he can do, shown partly by our 2013 season.

    If we can sign him for a reasonable price, probably $16m-$18m/year, which is hard to imagine (Mario is making $16m), then go for it, otherwise.....I never thought I'd say this....but I would probably let him walk. That is, unless the Texans are willing to take option #'s 2 and 2b from above.....
     
  2. Raven

    Raven Member

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    If the Texans let JJ go, McNair might as well sell the team, because his name would forever be dog #### in this town.
     
  3. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    No more than the highest paid QB (and some might say that might be too much).
     
  4. Rick Rambis

    Rick Rambis Member

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    holy crap that contract is a monster
     
  5. DieHard Rocket

    DieHard Rocket Contributing Member

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    I don't think JJ Watt is going to be interested in completely wrecking our cap. I could be wrong though, but like Tom Brady I think he is going to take a very nice but relatively modest contract and not worry about being the highest paid player in the league (should definitely be the highest paid defensive player though, so $16-18mm per year and whatever the guaranteed number needs to be).

    Otherwise, and it probably wouldn't be very popular with him, we could continue to franchise tag him for 3 years like you said and right now the franchise tag figure for DE's is just over $11 million (with 120% raises each year you franchise tag him).

    He stands to lose a nice chunk of change if he wants $23 million annually and the Texans don't cater to his demands. And who knows what can happen after 3 years to his value, as unlikely as it may seem.
     
  6. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    I wouldn't pay him that. Only a QB is worth that much.
     
  7. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    If they won no one would care.
     
  8. J Sizzle

    J Sizzle Member

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    Difference between Watt and Tom Brady is that Tom Brady got his mega deal, the went with a lesser contract later in this career. Watt is not going to leave money on the table this early in his career, most likely. That just wouldn't be smart on his part.

    But I could be wrong. Just don't see him not maximizing his value.
     
  9. finsraider

    finsraider Member

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    Yeah....you can't let him walk. He's the most impactful defensive player in the league, and is 2nd overall only to a high caliber QB. There literally isn't one single player outside of a top QB that you would want over JJ.

    What is your plan on defense if you let him walk? Draft his replacement??? Haha, no. The defense would implode and the team would suffer the loss for a decade.

    Keep JJ. Draft a QB. Cut whatever you need to make it work.
     
  10. baseballa56k

    baseballa56k Member

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    Would it be possible to spread the contract out more and put more guaranteed money in it while making the annual cap hit a bit less?
     
  11. tmacfor35

    tmacfor35 Contributing Member

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    JJ will go down as a top 5 defensive player of all time barring injury. I still wouldn't pay him that much. Looking at that cap figure makes me sick.
     
  12. DieHard Rocket

    DieHard Rocket Contributing Member

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    True- didn't mean to say he's going to take a huge discount like Brady (who is at like $10-11mm annually. I just don't think he'll demand the $23mm that the article says he is worth and that he'll settle for around $18mm annually as long as the guaranteed money is there.

    Also can't forget about cost of living, no state income taxes, and endorsements. I'm sure Ford and HEB are paying him a pretty penny already.
     
  13. Cypress

    Cypress Member

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  14. Pull_Up_3

    Pull_Up_3 Member

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    if the texans let him walk i will just root for whatever team he goes 2 and be done with the texans.
     
  15. Fyreball

    Fyreball Contributing Member

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    So the first JJOF appears.......
     
    1 person likes this.
  16. Pull_Up_3

    Pull_Up_3 Member

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    yes sir. Wouldve been the same with Andre

    JJ has really grown on me the way he gives it his all every game no matter our record
     
  17. BigBird

    BigBird Contributing Member

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    300 mil. but no more than that
     
  18. Ottomaton

    Ottomaton Contributing Member
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    The starting point for negotiations will be the option year plus the three franchise tags. Rick Smith will say, "We can give most of this to you now, or we can non - guarantee it over the next five years, and what if you get a career ending injury and don't get it all?"

    Give him that amount for the next five years (plus a bit of a premium) and then a couple of monster years in the 20+ mil range after, then balance it over the full seven years and you end up with a much smaller (but still huge) contract.

    The Texans have the leverage with the option year and 3 unguaranteed years of franchise tag that they can hold over him. I can't see him getting anything like what the OP's article suggests. That is what the Texans would pay if JJ was a true free agent after next year.
     
  19. BleedsRocketRed

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    That is just way too much money for a single player. With Arian and Cushing's contracts on the books right now we would be in absolute cap HELL and wouldn't ever be able to afford any other players.

    Cushing should have never got the deal he got, when he got it. Terrible management.

    Also, Mario Williams #$%^& up the market for defensive players. My goodness

    I may got ripped for this, but if he is demanding 23-24 million per year, let him walk. I would rather get 2-3 solid players at 8-10 million per than tie up 20% into one player.
     
  20. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    In the world of non-guaranteed contracts, the Texans don't need to be overly concerned.

    They'll be able to re-sign Watt after cutting some dead weight. The player they should have never extended was Foster... but again, he'll be let go once it makes enough financial sense to get rid of him.

    Watt will be the highest paid defensive player ever, and for good reason. He single-handedly carried a mediocre defense this past season that didn't get a single above-average performance from any other player in the lineup.... that's how big an impact he has. He's also the biggest reason for the team's defensive turnaround in 2011.
     

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