Oh snap. The intelligent CF brethren have shown up to stamp out ignorance. It's best to just chalk up this season to a bunch of bad luck happening in the offseason coinciding with a bunch of bad habits boiling over.
Here is the full formula for individual ortg, which is an individual measure not a team measure. Offensive Rating In Dean's words, "Individual offensive rating is the number of points produced by a player per hundred total individual possessions. In other words, 'How many points is a player likely to generate when he tries?'" The basic building blocks of the Offensive Rating calculation are Individual Total Possessions and Individual Points Produced. The formula for Total Possessions is broken down into four components: Scoring Possessions, Missed FG Possessions, Missed FT Possessions, and Turnovers. The Scoring Possessions formula is by far the most complex: ScPoss = (FG_Part + AST_Part + FT_Part) * (1 - (Team_ORB / Team_Scoring_Poss) * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play%) + ORB_Part where: FG_Part = FGM * (1 - 0.5 * ((PTS - FTM) / (2 * FGA)) * qAST) qAST = ((MP / (Team_MP / 5)) * (1.14 * ((Team_AST - AST) / Team_FGM))) + ((((Team_AST / Team_MP) * MP * 5 - AST) / ((Team_FGM / Team_MP) * MP * 5 - FGM)) * (1 - (MP / (Team_MP / 5)))) AST_Part = 0.5 * (((Team_PTS - Team_FTM) - (PTS - FTM)) / (2 * (Team_FGA - FGA))) * AST FT_Part = (1-(1-(FTM/FTA))^2)*0.4*FTA Team_Scoring_Poss = Team_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Team_FTM / Team_FTA))^2) * Team_FTA * 0.4 Team_ORB_Weight = ((1 - Team_ORB%) * Team_Play%) / ((1 - Team_ORB%) * Team_Play% + Team_ORB% * (1 - Team_Play%)) Team_ORB% = Team_ORB / (Team_ORB + (Opponent_TRB - Opponent_ORB)) Team_Play% = Team_Scoring_Poss / (Team_FGA + Team_FTA * 0.4 + Team_TOV) ORB_Part = ORB * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play% Missed FG and Missed FT Possessions are calculated as follows: FGxPoss = (FGA - FGM) * (1 - 1.07 * Team_ORB%) FTxPoss = ((1 - (FTM / FTA))^2) * 0.4 * FTA Total Possessions are then computed like so: TotPoss = ScPoss + FGxPoss + FTxPoss + TOV Now, Individual Points Produced must also be calculated: PProd = (PProd_FG_Part + PProd_AST_Part + FTM) * (1 - (Team_ORB / Team_Scoring_Poss) * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play%) + PProd_ORB_Part where: PProd_FG_Part = 2 * (FGM + 0.5 * 3PM) * (1 - 0.5 * ((PTS - FTM) / (2 * FGA)) * qAST) PProd_AST_Part = 2 * ((Team_FGM - FGM + 0.5 * (Team_3PM - 3PM)) / (Team_FGM - FGM)) * 0.5 * (((Team_PTS - Team_FTM) - (PTS - FTM)) / (2 * (Team_FGA - FGA))) * AST PProd_ORB_Part = ORB * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play% * (Team_PTS / (Team_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Team_FTM / Team_FTA))^2) * 0.4 * Team_FTA)) After all of that, we can finally calculate the player's individual Offensive Rating: ORtg = 100 * (PProd / TotPoss)
Notes: In a later chapter of Basketball on Paper, Oliver emphasized that Offensive Ratings shouldn't be viewed in a vacuum. Introducing a concept he called "Skill Curves", he acknowledged that a player's ORtg needed to be judged in conjunction with his Usage Rate, a measure of how big a role the player fills in his team's offense. The bigger the role, the more difficult it is to maintain a high ORtg; the smaller the role, the easier it is to be highly efficient. Because of this, Oliver stressed that a player's ORtg should primarily be compared to those of other players in a similar role.
it's more like fighting an enemy with your army, navy, and air force and, after determining that your navy is the weakest link, just telling all of your ships to aim their guns for the open water instead of at the enemy ships because they probably won't do much damage anyway. you fight with the navy you have and shoot with the shooters you have. but you still use them optimally no matter what. shooting 3's over long 2's is smart no matter how you build your roster. it's why we finished 8th in offense without having great shooters. the problem is we though the defense was going to be good and it was terrible.
For team ORtg: For teams, the formula is: 100 x Pts / (Tm FGA + .40 x Tm FTA - 1.07 x (Tm ORB / (Tm ORB + Tm DRB)) x (Tm FGA - Tm FG) + Tm TO)[1]
So, by Mr.Clutch's logic the top 10 offensive player are : Offensive Rating 1. Tristan Thompson ▪ CLE 129.8 2. Stephen Curry ▪ GSW 124.5 3. Steven Adams ▪ OKC 123.4 4. Enes Kanter ▪ OKC 122.7 5. DeAndre Jordan ▪ LAC 121.7 6. Kevin Durant ▪ OKC 121.6 7. Kawhi Leonard ▪ SAS 121.4 8. Jonas Valanciunas ▪ TOR 120.4 9. Danilo Gallinari ▪ DEN 120.0 10. Chris Paul ▪ LAC 119.2 yup. sounds about right.
Even if you don't like drtg and ortg, which is fine, you don't have to, then we can go into plus/ minus. Plus/minus is showing the same thing, Harden is playing much worse than last year. I do want to make one correction on an earlier point. Drtg is influenced by the team performance. There aren't really good defensive public stats out there (Morey said that)
Question: Would this Rockets team be able to beat the Sixers or the Lakers this year if there was no Harden? Ariza- Trash. Someone voted this dude for Defensive player of the year!! Dmo/TJones- Trash Dwight- Trash Bev- Utter Trash. Defensive stopper? He got torched by Ian Clark and Livingston I won't even talk about the bench and SEWER, CRAP!!! This team is horrible. No wonder the players gave Harden the MVP last year. All the NBA Players knew the Rockets were trash last year. We finally found out everyone on this team is trash except Harden.
Nope, you completely missed two points I made earlier 1) no stat is perfect 2) low usage guys can be skewed
How convenient is it to pick out literally one stat where Harden did not do relatively well. Other than Ortg, which we all know is heavily influenced by team performance, Harden is almost universally in top 10 in every offensive stat. Can't be a coincidence, could it?
ORtg isn't heavily influenced by team. It wasnt the only stat I pointed out. He's not. Well he is top 10 in turnovers.
how does simply low usage makes a ****ty offensive player have high Ortg, if it largely measures 'individual performance'?
THe problem is you need leadership. Naturally you expect it out of your best player, but Harden's not that guy. Which is fine if you have someone else or a head coach that exudes leadership. When you have no one, you just have a hot, discombobulated mess.
