yet the spurs, wolves, and celtics all tanked seasons before in the past. spurs woulda never got duncan if they wouldn't have tanked.
Daryl Moron will continue to run this franchise into the ground and will never be able to get a super star here. And as far as the draft goes, the only super stars that have come from the draft since 2003 is Rose, Wall, and Griffin so you are right......Long road ahead folks!
They didn't really "tank," Robinson was just out injured the whole year and they were god awful without him. I'm starting to think my idea of tanking is different then the clutchfans idea. x:
Look the reality is that this team is lottery bound, no matter what they do. And since they are already heading in that direction, might as well try to get the highest pick possible... I mean Perry Jones, Kyrie Irving, Enes Kanter, Harrison Barnes, Jan Vesely and Donatas Montiejunas are right there for the taking, if we blow up the roster now(mainly get rid of the veterans) and play the young guys, we can still land in the top 5...
Why do I always think of Vizzini from The Princess Bride when you post? <object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/f6wqKb8EUxI?fs=1&hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/f6wqKb8EUxI?fs=1&hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385"></embed></object> A more challenging request is to list any team in the NBA that doesn't have a Top 10 draft pick on their squad. There aren't any. Do you do ANY research before making such snide remarks to other posters? I would go so far as to say that there is no correlation between the number of Top 10 drafts picks on a team and its success. One of the 2 teams with the most Top 10 picks (Clippers) and the team with the least Top 10 picks (Cleveland) are both in the bottom tier of the NBA. And to confuse it even more, the other team with the most Top 10 picks (Miami) is at the top of the league. In fact, not only is there no correlation with Top 10 draft picks and team success, there is no correlation with Top 5 draft picks either. The only trend that tends to show up at all is whether a team has a #1 pick or not. And even that is weak: 6 of the Top 10 teams have #1 picks. 4 of the Middle 9 teams have #1 picks. 5 of the Bottom 11 teams have #1 picks. It's a trend, but it's awfully weak. Based on this, tanking seems pointless. There are teams with greater and teams with fewer draft picks on their rosters at all success levels of the NBA. The more fortunate of them either picked well or traded well to get them. But the mere act of having them seems to do nothing for a team's success. So, JCDenton, in the words of an infamous poster, "How did you not notice that you actually proved the point you were arguing against?". *************************************** Teams over .600 Boston - 4 Top 10 picks; 3 Top 5 picks; 1 #1 pick Miami - 7 Top 10 picks (tied for the most); 6 Top 5 picks (the most); 1 #1 pick Chicago - 4 Top 10 picks; 1 Top 5 pick; 1 #1 pick Orlando - 3 Top 10 picks; 2 Top 5 picks; 1 #1 pick Atlanta - 5 Top 10 picks; 3 Top 5 picks; 0 #1 picks San Antonio - 2 Top 10 picks; 2 Top 5 picks; 1 #1 pick Lakers - 4 Top 10 picks; 3 Top 5 picks; 1 #1 pick Dallas - 6 Top 10 picks; 2 Top 5 picks; 0 #1 picks OKC - 4 Top 10 picks; 4 Top 5 picks; 0 #1 picks Utah - 2 Top 10 picks; 1 Top 5 pick; 0 #1 picks Teams between .400 and .599 New York - 4 Top 10 picks; 2 Top 5 picks; 0 #1 picks Indiana - 3 Top 10 picks; 1 Top 5 pick; 0 #1 picks Charlotte - 6 Top 10 picks; 4 Top 5 picks; 1 #1 pick New Orleans - 2 Top 10 picks; 2 Top 5 picks; 0 #1 picks Denver - 5 Top 10 picks; 4 Top 5 picks; 1 #1 pick Portland - 6 Top 10 picks; 3 Top 5 picks; 1 #1 pick Memphis - 5 Top 10 picks; 3 Top 5 picks; 0 #1 picks Houston - 3 Top 10 picks; 1 Top 5 pick; 1 #1 pick Phoenix - 5 Top 10 picks; 3 Top 5 picks; 0 #1 picks Teams under .400 Philidelphia - 5 Top 10 picks; 3 Top 5 picks; 1 #1 pick Toronto - 2 Top 10 picks; 1 Top 5 pick; 1 #1 pick Milwaukee - 5 Top 10 picks; 3 Top 5 picks; 1 #1 pick Detroit - 6 Top 10 picks; 1 Top 5 pick; 0 #1 picks Washington - 4 Top 10 picks; 2 Top 5 picks; 1 #1 pick New Jersey - 3 Top 10 picks; 2 Top 5 picks; 0 #1 picks Cleveland - 1 Top 10 pick (the least); 1 Top 5 pick; 0 #1 picks Golden State - 4 Top 10 picks; 0 Top 5 picks (the least); 0 #1 picks Clippers - 7 Top 10 picks (tied for the most); 2 Top 5 picks; 1 #1 pick Minnesota - 6 Top 10 picks; 3 Top 5 picks; 0 #1 picks Sacramento - 2 Top 10 picks; 2 Top 5 picks; 0 #1 picks
People need to face facts. We are too good to tank. We eat weaker teams alive. But at the same time we are not playoff material. We will get destroyed if we enter the playoffs. We have no star. Getting into the playoffs will just give us a worse pick in the draft. What we need to do is trade some of the scrubs for better material. Morey is always so high on wack people and making moves for them. He needs to stop that crap and a lot of you all need to stop talking about Melo. We aren't getting Melo and frankly I don't want him. If we get him we will have to trade tons of stuff and he will just leave us at the end of the season for New York and we'll be left with nothing. This team needs to look at the other talent that is out there. OJ Mayo is up for trade. Josh Smith is talked about. Danny Granger is being dangled a bit. Marc Gasol is probably tradable. AI and Stephen Jackson are able to be traded. Steve Nash may want out of Phoenix soon as his career is winding down. Lets try and get a combination of 2 of those players. OJ Mayo Danny Granger Marc Gasol Andre I Stephen Jackson Steve Nash Josh Smith Try for 2 of these. Forget Melo. He is bad news all around. His mind is set on New York/New Jersey. Stop trying to suicide this team by trading for him and ignoring other talent.
Below are the average probabilities of drafting an All-Star player for the 20 season span between 2005 and 1986 (http://www.basketball-reference.com): Picks 1-5: 50% Picks 6-10: 16% Picks 11-15: 11% Picks 16-20: 12% Picks 21-25: 8% Picks 26-30: 6% Drafting After A Playoff Birth Let’s say the Rockets sneak into the 8th and final playoff spot in the West. There will likely be a couple of teams in the East with records worse than the Rockets (based on current standings). So that would mean that the Rockets would end up with the 17th pick in the draft. That would put them in the interval with a 12% chance of drafting an All-Star. Drafting After A Tanking Season The Rockets are currently on pace for a 36-win season. Let’s say that by giving a lot more PT to TWill, Bud, PPat, and Hill, it ends up costing 6 wins over the remaining 43 (winning pct falls by 14%) and they end up with a 30-win season. Based on current standings, that would rank them 23rd in the league (8th worst record), leaving them with less than a 10% probability of getting one of the top 3 picks. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery#Process) This means there is a 90% probability of the Rockets drafting in the interval with a 16% chance of drafting an All-Star. Using this scenario, tanking would likely increase the chance of drafting an All-Star by only 4%. Seems like a pretty poor strategy for getting better as a team. Cost of Tanking One argument would be that whoever sticks around next year would benefit from the experience of even one playoff series, even if it results in another first round exit. The four guys listed above have never even smelled a playoff game. Plus, it’s got to mess with a young dude’s confidence to know they are only getting PT because their team sucks. As Morey says, winning breeds winning. There’s got to be some value to developing a team culture of pride.
You are missing a zero in your calculation. The odds are increased almost 40% by drafting in the 6-10 range. 16%-10%/10% Difference between the odds in 6-10 and 11-15 range divided by the original odds. You are assuming the Rockets have the same draft board. Eor example, the Rockets projected Aaron Brooks and Carl Landry as better players than other teams than teams that drafted higher than them. The odds are very different when a good drafting team gets in the lottery than a bad drafting one like the Clippers and Hawks. Rockets have been a poor drafting team for years, but they have seemed to improve with Morey instead of Dawson. Patterson, Budinger, Brooks and Landry have done well for their draft position. Dorsey was a flop. http://www.82games.com/bestdraftingteams.htm
If the Rockets begin to tank no one would be at the games besides season ticket holder's and they will feel ripped off. And I'm sure "tanking" seems like such a wonderful idea but it is such a big ass risk. Did you see the New Jersey Nets last year? Seriously do you want to see 5-10 years of win-loss records like the New Jersey Nets record, 12-70. And look the Nets ended up trying to nab LeBron James through trade and failed because of their awful team and now trying to acquire Carmelo Anthony but he is probably going to move to the Knicks with Amare. Lets say the whole Rockets team changed and became the Nets team in my opinion Melo would stay at the "Brooklyn Nets" and sign the extension.
Your projections for winning seem to be very generous. if we play the young players. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/pattepa01/gamelog/2011/ In games where Patterson gets more than 10 minutes, the Rockets have won 2 games out of 7 for 0.286 record. In games where T-will and Patterson played, the Rockets won 0 games out of 4 for a 0.000 record Let's project the Rockets based on them doing better than 0%, if both T-will and Patterson played. How about we split the difference between 0.000 and 0.286. They would win 0.143 for the next 43 games. It would give them 6 more wins and a 0.280 overall record. Based on current standings, the Rockets would be drafting in the 4th spot. It would give them an 82.8% chance of drafting in the top 5.
No it's not going to be "a season" it will most likely be 5-10 seasons. I'm sure by the tenth season the club is going to move to another city because no money is being made in Houston and no one is supporting it.
All star players is only one product of the draft. You can also draft good assets. You can also trade the pick. Draft is all about potential. Potential is overrated and sells in NBA. The higher the pick is, the better trade value you get. Just think how hard to move up in the draft. Also, I can bet this with anyone: Morey will beat your listed draft odds.
RedDragon & Blunto, The arguments you give are valid concerns, but they miss the larger picture. The larger picture is that when you are a team that is not one of the main NBA markets or already has a superstar player, to get a superstar player you essentially have to draft them. No one is saying tanking to get a Top 10 (though really you need a Top 7 pick), is a sure way to get that player or it will work out even 10% of the time. However, it is really the ONLY way to get said-player considering this franchise, its reputation, and location in the country. We can dream and hope and all that about trading for or signing a superstar player, but when truth comes to shove there is virtually no chance any will come to the Rockets. We can also dream all we want about this team becoming a cohesive unit in which either all the young players develop or we traded for an all-star (2nd or 3rd tier star) and a contender. However, only 2 teams have ever won a title in the history of the NBA thusly constructed. If you are okay with a good team that we would love to watch play and may make some memorable performances in the regular season and early rounds of the playoffs for a number of years, than that strategy is the way to go. If you want to see the Rockets be a true title contender, then at some point the organization has to either break the team up so that the Rockets are simply really horrible or tank to get a Top 7 draft pick. Of course, it is not a for-sure thing. Of course, some luck and chance is involved. Of course, it will be a painful process. However, unless you can acquire a Top 7 pick in some other way to get that player (which only happens in rare cases), that is what you have to do. Note: The reason I keep making the distinction about a Top 7 pick is because this post I made last week: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=5870131&postcount=18
