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It's the economy stupid

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by underoverup, May 28, 2013.

  1. underoverup

    underoverup Member

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    Dow rockets, stock prices jump

    If the market closed at current levels, the Dow and small-stock Russell 2000 index would set all-time record highs.And the 30-stock Dow is on track to close higher for the 20th straight Tuesday. That would be the longest day-of-the-week string of consecutive gains in the Dow's history. If the rally doesn't dissipate in afternoon trading, the Dow may be on track for its biggest one-day point gain since Jan. 2, the first trading of the year, when it shot up more than 308 points.

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/05/28/stocks-tuesday-5-28/2364839/

    Consumer confidence strongest in over five years in May

    The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes jumped to 76.2 from an upwardly revised 69 in April, topping economists' expectations for 71. It was the best level since February 2008.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/28/us-usa-economy-confidence-idUSBRE94R0J620130528
     
    1 person likes this.
  2. bobmarley

    bobmarley Contributing Member

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    Americans are quite resilient.
     
  3. Northside Storm

    Northside Storm Contributing Member

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    those of us on the debt deleveraging spiel were on this for a long time.

    I don't credit anyone in particular, but the fact is, once the credit cycle returns to normal levels---this was bound to happen.

    but if we were to play the blame game, one does note that under Democrat presidents, Americans just happen to be a tad more resilient.
     
  4. bobmarley

    bobmarley Contributing Member

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    Resiliency is a matter of opinion. Please feel free to quantify Americans' resilience under different American presidents for me.
     
  5. Northside Storm

    Northside Storm Contributing Member

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    you are conflating economic production with American resilience. In this case, the argument is simple; GDP and accomplying economic statistics grow better under Democrat presidents than Republican ones.

    case closed, and shut.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    If you wish to rethink your use of the word resilience in an economic context, feel free to do so.
     
  6. bobmarley

    bobmarley Contributing Member

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    I never made an economic claim. I said Americans are resilient. You claimed they are more resilient under Demo presidents. I asked you to back your claim and you didn't because you and I both know you cannot quantify resliency.

    Please feel free to add bar graphs on who was the majority in the Senate and Congress during the presidencies that you used in your economic claim.
     
  7. underoverup

    underoverup Member

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    And the good news keeps coming! :)

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/29/business/house-prices-show-largest-gain-in-years.html

    House Prices Show Largest Gain in Years

    The United States saw another round of broad-based home price gains in March, reinforcing the housing recovery’s important role in driving economic growth.

    All 20 cities tracked by the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller home price index posted year-over-year gains, as they have done for three consecutive months now. The 20-city composite index rose 10.9 percent over the last year. That is the biggest annual increase since April 2006.
     
  8. bobmarley

    bobmarley Contributing Member

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    From the comments of the article posted:

     
  9. underoverup

    underoverup Member

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    SMH "from the comments..."

    Try "from the article" or attempt to articulate your own thoughts.
     
  10. Northside Storm

    Northside Storm Contributing Member

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    You posted that Americans are resilient---in a thread that is titled "It's the economy stupid". Then you claimed you weren't making an economic claim.

    I won't waste time arguing with you, as I'm really just using your posts as springboards for my economic talking points, to be perfectly frank. but you're terribly off-topic, by the way.
     
  11. Northside Storm

    Northside Storm Contributing Member

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  12. bobmarley

    bobmarley Contributing Member

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    [​IMG]

    The best growth is when the repugs control two areas.

    It looks like economy is best during Republican president and Senate and Demo Congress.

    Leave the policy to the Repugs and the oversight to the Demos.
     
  13. Northside Storm

    Northside Storm Contributing Member

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    If you want to take it even further, the economy grows further in RDRD scenarios---Republican President, Republican Senate, Democrat House, and Democrat-appointed Fed chairman.

    but yeah, leave the policy to Republicans based on one chart you copy+pasted (and did not really bother to see the context behind it).
     
  14. DCkid

    DCkid Contributing Member

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    So does this mean wages are also up 10.9% over the last year?

    But seriously, I think the causes for this are (in order):

    1.) Feds spending $85 billion a month to keep interest rates at all-time lows. (In 2011 a 30 year mortgage payment for a $250k house is roughly the same as a $295k house today. There's a 20% increase right there.)

    2.) Home supply shortage due to a lot of loan owners not listing homes because they're either effectively underwater or aren't really in a position to buy a new home.

    3.) Over the past several years large investment firms bought up excess distressed inventory in bulk for cheap, further contributing to supply shortage (1% wins again!).

    4.) Still a large shadow/cloud inventory in pre-foreclosure as well as banks just sitting on foreclosed homes to keep them on the books. Again...limiting supply.

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    5.) Normal Americans' prospects and wages are increasing so much that it's leading to increased demand for homes and causing prices to surge.

    Anyone really think #5 is a significant reason house prices are increasing?

    This doesn't appear sustainable to me until house prices rise along with wages and the Fed isn't spending $85 billion per month just to keep it all afloat.
     
    #14 DCkid, May 28, 2013
    Last edited: May 28, 2013
  15. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    This news isn't really anything to rely on. It's yet another arbitrary marker while a wasted generation of youths and the unemployed are stagnating.

    Economists have been hemming and hawing over the current question of making a bubble to get out of a bubble busted recession, but the real work has been looming.

    It seems central banks can engineer growth with decent amount of effort (especially when everyone is hurting...), but can the Fed prevent it from spiraling out of control and into another bubble? American saving and credit levels are still pretty bad on a longer term historical level, but good enough if you pretend day 0 starts in the year 2000.

    And perhaps, the worst news is that productivity gains are from machines and automation and the jobs it replaced (along with people doing more to fill in the void) during the crash will never fully come back. Keep in mind, people were expecting boomers to retire and create an exodus of mid-upper level management. With retirement savings taken a bite from the 6 years ago and higher costs of living a retired and insured life, more of the qualified people are standing pat while the newbs are still waiting for the foot in the door.

    And really, the whole ****pile that Congress has laid and is continuing to dump over the last 15 years can't be easily forgotten with "better than expected" numbers, can it? Who expected it? And do you know anyone who's still looking for a job or one their degree provided some training under?

    Those people are out there. A **** ton of them.
     
  16. Northside Storm

    Northside Storm Contributing Member

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    I agree with the premise that the recovery America has had so far won't solve everything, but you have to start somewhere. It's hard to tackle youth unemployment if your economy is sliding towards double-dip recession.

    I'm of the opinion that central banks should stimulate economies, and regulatory agencies should be responsible for ensuring they don't overheat. You can't use the central bank in both functions, otherwise you have entire macro-economy effects that go way beyond intended effects---a central bank interest rate hike has very profound implications throughout the economy, something say, a risk-weighted capital buffer requirement for certain financial institutions would not have (at least not on such a sweeping scale).
     
  17. NotInMyHouse

    NotInMyHouse Contributing Member

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    I wonder what the replies in this thread will look like when there is no more QE?
     
  18. Cohete Rojo

    Cohete Rojo Contributing Member

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    The stock market's up indicating a good economy? Must be 2007 again.
     
  19. solid

    solid Contributing Member

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    The FED is pumping billions of "funny money" into the banks. Sort of like blowing up a balloon with hot air. We know what comes next.
     
  20. underoverup

    underoverup Member

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    Lots of negativity in this thread, it's almost like some want the country to do poorly. Clearly things are turning around sharply from the 2nd worst economic collapse in US history.
     

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