I don't really care about bankrate - but when we say real wages are up since 2020, do you actually know what that means? Here's a good example. The average hourly wage for someone at the bottom 10% scale was $14.92 in February 2020. As of September 2024 that number is $19.69. That is a 32% gain. Inflation for that period is something like 20% give or take depending on what measure you use. Some things are more, some things are less, but all in all, it's less than the gain they had That's where Real Income comes from. Anyway f all the racist ass Trump voters. I ride with Snoop Dogg there.
Even the poor, dumb, and unloved bottom-quartile fact checker will agree that wages went up since 2020, but from 2021 onward... Reposting link and doling up facts for the lazy. https://www.atlantafed.org/blogs/macroblog/2024/06/27/are-real-wages-catching-up Two years ago, inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) topped out at a roughly 40-year high of 9 percent on a year-over-year basis. The speed and magnitude of the surge in consumer prices resulted in a sizeable decline in real (inflation-adjusted) wage growth—real average hourly earnings at the time had fallen 3 percent on a year-over-year basis—and led to many economists warning of a potential wage-price spiral associated with an anticipated sharp catch-up in real wage growth. This sort of dynamic would have posed a significant challenge for monetary policy makers to overcome without tanking the economy. The argument was that amid the prevailing tight labor market conditions, workers would be in a strong position to bargain for higher wages. However, to minimize the impact on their bottom lines brought by higher wages, businesses would try to pass on these costs to consumers in the form of higher prices. In turn, so the argument went, this would propagate another round of wage and price increases, and these dynamics could potentially continue indefinitely. Short-circuiting these dynamics would have left policy makers in a pickle. Fast forward to today. Inflation cooled quickly following the initial surge and by June 2023 was trending a bit above 3 percent (about the same range that it's in currently). And by some measures, real wage growth has turned slightly positive. The year-over-year growth rate in real average hourly earnings turned positive by mid-2023. Through May 2024, real wages are up 0.5 percent year over year. While real wage growth has turned slightly positive in recent months, the level of real wages is still below where they were at the onset of the inflation surge that we began to see in the first quarter of 2021. Simply put, real wages haven't fully caught up to the sudden burst in inflation. For example, the cumulative growth in the CPI since the beginning of 2021 is nearly 18 percent (through the first quarter of 2024). The Employment Cost Index (ECI)—one of the broadest measures of wage growth and which at least partially accounts for compositional shifts in the labor force—is up a little less than 15 percent over that period, leaving cumulative real wage growth roughly 3 percentage points below zero. This decline in real wages is unusual compared to what the ECI typically depicts. During the prior expansion, real growth in the ECI averaged around 0.5 percentage points per year. Projecting that over the period from the first quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2024 would have led to a cumulative increase in the real ECI of 1.5 percentage points (see figure 1). Surprisingly, the observed decline in real wages occurred during a very strong rebound in labor market tightness. ______ You love your FRED, but you'll need to goto the BLS site to get the ECI data and do calculations for real ECI. Since you're the one teaching me, I think you're up for it.
Heh. Eci is cost to employers The Employment Cost Index (ECI) measures the change in the hourly labor cost to employers over time Why do you give a **** what the bosses costs are? Own goal man
Oh yeah, the Atlanta Fed (who I presumably hate) should own goal for their July 2024 paper titled Are Real Wages Catching Up? I look forward to your future econ lectures when you're punching below the level of...bankrate.com
Dude I'm not even trying to give econ lectures listen I could sit here all night and dunk on you for confusing EMPLOYERS with EMPLOYEES - you could dig through the Atl Fed- but that's not exciting or interesting for anyone. I kind of don't get what your angle is at all? The Biden administration has been the most economically progressive admin of our lifetime across the board and you can see it in the data - that's just straight facts. The US exit from the pandemic economy is literally the best in the entire world and it's not even close. Inflation is back to normal levels. Deflation is neither desirable nor possible Those are just things that are...true - no bankrate or Fred or Politifact makes any difference there Can we cut to the chase and figure out what your angle here is? Trump voters are racist as hell and voting for a fascist who promises a fascist regime of white primacy - that's just fact as well. If you're pushing the "economic anxiety" bs of 8 years ago, that has been debunked so many times If you're a horseshoe leftist/rfk/ Putinist, yeah ok that's certainly a view, but over here in the real world we look at what is possible and in that instance - the Biden administration has crushed it in terms of pursuing progressive goals (with the glaring exception of imprisoning all the insurrectionist traitor ****s starting with DJT - huge mistake, that) Anyway please let me know what your angle - actually is? MAGa? Cause if so, just stop. I hate that ****
You asked for FRED data, and I provided a study that uses a key metric the Fed uses to determine rate policy and employment health. ECI also fits better to include both salaried and hourly workers. Who is not 'owning goals' here? BTW it's not new for people to try to dunk on me with a metric they just learned when they glossed over the initial study without understanding full context. I've already stated it many times. It's nice you edited out the "unhinged" part in one of your replies. I guess I can't call that good ol projection anymore. For the record, you jumped into my reply to a different member, so I can only guess why you're hyperfocusing on this. I do like high quality facts and discussion. You can look into my "hidden agenda" but good luck there. It's probably easier to sit all night and dunk on me for that than own up to the Fed data I posted and the greater point about a good chunk of Americans not feeling their wages have kept up with inflation.
Not sure what the point of any of this is or your angle is but happy Halloween - also I think it would be more proper to say "own goal-ing" than "owning goals"
a chronology of this latest toptic of discussion on inflation Inviisible parroted some self-proclaimed fact-check info on inflation SamFisher read it and point out the fact-checking methodology was flawed/odd, and would rather use data from FRED I point it out Invisible's source was a quasi-lobbying / influencing group Invisible then responded that he uses other sources as well i told him to put up the link or shut up Invisible copied and pasted an article from Fed-Atlanta, addressing real wage growth, specifically, ECI
yip, Invisible is the same pretend economist that blames the Fed for the deficit spending, unable to differentiate monetary from fiscal policies
Inflation effects all consumers so it weighs on more people's mind more so than things like high unemployment. Inflation was going to come regardless as Trump had proven to be prolific money printer, even without Covid. I personally think the Biden admin had overall good policies, arguably could have done with less helicopter money in hindsight but there was quite a bit of targeted spending. As usual, the Dems just suck at the messaging. I think Kamala should be touting the Infrastructure, IRA, and CHIPs bills as investing in America resilience and providing American jobs.
true that; before the Pandemic Trump rails against Powell a day after the Fed cuts rates for a third time this year an argument can be made on that economic basis. but there are those who don't understand economics---for the sake of criticizing Biden admin / Powell's Fed---had resorted to propagate / parrot the false narrative that the Fed is wrecking its balance sheet
