The total response, as I’ve stated multiple times in discussions with you that monetary and fiscal policy work together and effect each other. It’s always both. The inflation wasn’t just monetary and was a bit more transitory than folks want to admit. I just don’t view central banks as the boogeyman as much as your rhetoric seems to insinuate. Reforming entitlements and the military are pretty key. Plus raising federal taxes on the wealthy from historically low levels. Looks a very black and white view. The New Deal didn’t “beat back the Great Depression” by itself but it was clearly a net positive since it modernized (at the time) vast swaths of the country and many of the great works projects are still providing electricity and fresh water to chunks of the country. Also by doing nothing or little in the 21st century, high unemployment will just kick in increased social safety net spending. We saw a surge in crime during the pandemic and retreat back. What would social disorder look like with higher unemployment for longer? China’s high youth unemployment must be a very scary thought for Xi. It’s just hard to actually quantify these things. Like the CHIP act will certainly not be a very efficient use of money but with the backdrop of the worlds most advanced semiconductors being made in country under the cross hairs of the 2nd most powerful military…. IRA bill as well, it’s not a very efficient use of capital but how do you quantify that when many resources and supply chains are in increasingly hostile nations? Of course scenario would be better… However per your article: And nowhere does your article mention what if we did nothing… which is also important. Feels like scenario 2 is better than doing nothing but worse than scenario 1. The US government isn’t a business and while it should look at how efficient investments are, there are other considerations a government has that the private sector doesn’t.
I mentioned a few chains above that the inflation was both. The "transitory" aspect is when Congress passed CARES I, II, PPP along with many states to helicopter money directly to the American people. This is entirely different than the original monetary response that gave Bernanke the nickname "Helicopter Ben". Sure, you can say supply chain issues, resource constraints and a "bullwhip effect" is the larger reason for inflation, but the available money (plus loan forbearance) made that demand possible. That's generally agreed upon, and with 2 years of COVID, both sides would likely agree that's necessary. What I'm also stating is that the monetary side of dramatically lowered rates for longer plus a near doubling of QE from ~4T to 8T at its peak is primarily responsible for the insane housing prices you've been chalking up as poor supply and slack (among many other facets). Rent and housing costs like property taxes, insurance and mortgage payments take up around 30% of the sticky price inflation I linked to before, which largely removes energy and food as a different benchmark. Housing and services unrelated to housing have been the prime drivers to why that number is at 4.6% I don't think they're a boogeyman. I call them out for ****ing up, the moments where they supercede their mandate, and failing upward. Let's get it done now! The line of thinking to untangle here is that A) New Deal was necessary for the US to get past the Great Depression, it's arguable winning WW2 + a period of wage and demand repression with post WW2 rationing to pay off war bonds helped break it, and B) whether the works were worth it on its own [sure why not?...when the money's loose let the good times roll!]. I guess this is more academic because it's more politically possible to spend on works during a recession, but we also spent a shitton after WW2 such as the interstate highway project, which is arguably an even a bigger multiplier than TVA style Great Deal works. Beats me on your hypotheticals. On the monetary side the Fed has made it easy to distort natural business cycles out of either shareholder or political interests which causes bubbles to form and makes things increasingly fragile or harder to untangle. A bank run of 3-5 "midsized" banks shouldn't require a backstop when during the Obama presidency, people still cared about Moral Hazard and only breaking that glass in case of TBTF. On the fiscal side, we're at demographic tipping point where entitlements far exceed discretionary spending and massive deficit spending programs by both Biden and Trump (remove COVID as an emergency) are unsustainable at best. So if you consider the "response for both" where in last 4 years, the economy grew around ~27% whereas the national debt grew ~45% as "net positive", I'm gonna have to ask whether you would recommend repeating that for the next presidency. A big reason for Japan's Lost Decade was that the government propped up Zombie Banks at the expense of customer savings. You play God with the Business Cycle, then you're letting rot fester because you think letting those BBB rated zombie corps survive with a generous rate and credit policy is worth the jobs it saves (most generous assumption of intent). No one wants to preside over a recession, but you can't beat history. Throwing money at a complex problem can only take you so far. And I guess we're all hoping past November. But ofc the next existential political crisis will be mid-terms...oh no! Can your thought on reforming entitlements and the military be put on hold for just one more term...? Feels like scenario 2 is better than doing nothing but worse than scenario 1...For us. I'm not sure how our kids will pay that off, but if they can manage to pay off annual interest payments on our national debt and the cost to service something that initially costs 500B upfront (625B total in 30yrs), then maybe they'll thank us for it?
once again, you're uninformed / confused and mixed up REPUBLICANS ARE USING THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS TO WIN LONG-DESIRED BANK DEREGULATION, RAISING POTENTIAL FOR BANK FAILURES GOP lawmakers urged the Federal Reserve and FDIC to loosen regulations put in place after the 2008 crisis. The changes were slipped into the CARES Act. banking regulators have obliged, lifting the stressed test for smaller banks last yr, mis-management by 3 small banks led to their closure laughable coming from someone who still not able differentiate fiscal from monetary policies; case in point he parrot the convenient false narrative that the Fed is responsible for the budget deficit. ROLFMAO
just because you don't understand the workings of Fed's monetary tool box you don't have to disparage it, it is too bad that ur so un-informed. QE / printing $ in thin air / credit facilitiy have been ntegral parts of the solutions to resusitate US economy during these economic crises the Great Depression the financial industry bankruptcy 2008/2009 the Pandemic shutdown just the facts
Posting immortalize the timestamps, just in case the Ministry of Truth audited/flagged @adoo doing too much overtime. How can someone take 4 stabs in two days at one post not even addressed to him without reading and responding to its entirety? Is anyone else imagining @adoo printing this thread out and sharing with his co-workers with one hand limply left hanging? BTW, I mentioned MMT, where then he rails me for QE with a quick copy/paste. I didn't know projection could be a thing for EQ deficients.
The liberals on this site are unhinged , I’ve spent most of my 2 decades defending them here but it’s out of control
The shriller members want to make believe that the government can deficit spend like drunken sailors "better" than Republicans, who are neither fiscal nor conservative, when they're in control of spending. It's like two spoiled brats of divorcees fighting for their turn with the new toy and never learning how to share. The MMT loved by participants in this thread isn't even recognized as a legitimate by most economists, which give more cred to the charge of it being the lib's version of Supply-side, Laffer-curve Economics.
yet you can't name any such economist. just because you don't understand doesn't mean that it is not recognized. this baseless parroting by you is as ignorant as you prior comment that the US economy had recovered faster from the Great Depression than the Pandemic. do not project your willful ignorance !!! the two-prong approach, fiscal policies augmented by Fed's monetary tool box, to grow the US economy has been employed by Republican and Democratic presidencies, since the early 1900s 3 of the last 4 Fed Chair, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Yellen and Powell are life-long Republicans/Conservatives; they've all used the monetary tool box---complementing the fiscal policies--- to stabilize price and grow employment, towards expanding the economic pie for you education, the 2-prong approach has been the pragmatic marriage of economic concepts put forth by Nobel Prize winners in Economics, John Kenneth Galbraith and Milton Friedman. this fact blows you baseless parroting out of water
Correction, John Kenneth Galbraith, a Keynsian and a liberal, did not win a Nobel; but, in 1976, the conservative monetarist Milton Friedman did win the Noble prize in economics
not since the Great Depression, in a span of 4 year, has the US economy had to jump over so many economic hurdles; since 2008, the US economy had to jumped over thses hurdles. ill-conceived trade war lead to global supply chain bottleneck Pandemic Russia's invasion of Ukraine futher complicates global supply chain Ukraine export of soy. wheat, corn has been greatly decrease, diminishing supply
This is the third time I've asked you where I wrote that. I don't know whether you're a baseless parrot and/or a dishonest weasel but it gets annoying dispelling your lies and hallucinations. It's a waste of time when you spend the weekend making **** up for days, and I'm getting bored of making fun of your broken ass.
It's your accusations you cant back up with receipts. For the 4th time, I'm asking for proof. @adoo Are you really that stupid?
thank you for making it so easy for me to point out that you're merely a willfully ignorant parrot of economic spins, parroting such false narratives as Fed wrecking its balance sheet yet unable/unwilling to provide more details other than the headline Fed's deferred assets, without understanding what it is the Fed has an informal charter even tho the Fed website has a specific page on its charter holding the Fed responsible for the deficit as if the Congress has nothing to do with it the Fed has responsibility for revenues / expenditures
Well well, I must've made your Friday. You know how to feel good by gleefully using smileys, but you can't find the quote for this one eh? Fifth attempt at bill collection. @adoo are you a lying weasel or a baseless parrot?
