It is quite clear the Bosh is not coming to Houston

Ugh, let me slow down the example.

I am not saying that Yao = Ilgauskas. What I am saying is that Ilgauskas, following his foot surgery, was healthy and a comparable or slightly better player to Ilgauskas prior to the foot surgery. As a result, I am optimistic that Yao can be a healthy player while his on-court play remains comparable to prior levels. (Hint: those levels were clearly superior to Z.)

I suspect you'll view ESPN as all Houston homers for next year, if this happens, because 99% of analysts would consider the current roster + Bosh as a contender. Just giving you a heads up...

 

Yes, if something catastrophic happens they do lose out on that ONE year at the end.......

Now, play the odds, how often has that happened?

And these are young guys, they sign a 6 year guaranteed contract with a player opt out at year 3......so, after 3 years, they opt out and reup for the maximum and make up all that guaranteed money and more.

That $30 million is a worst case scenario only.

DD

 

Big Z was a whole lot younger than Yao when he had his injuries.
20 and 10 days are gone for Yao (not that head alot of those anyway).

25mins a game does not equal championship.

A championship starts and ends with Defense and im not sure this roster can play that type of D.

 

Again, why would you not sign a 7-year guaranteed contract with a player opt out at year three? You have the same flexibility you describe to make more money, while protecting your worst-case scenario by $30 million.

And how often has that happened? How often has a player that was considered a max talent one year not been considered a max talent three years later? Quite a bit. Three years ago, if Yao were a free agent, he would've gotten a max offer from effectively every team in the league (either straight up or through S&T). Do you believe that to be the case today?

Player valuations change all the time. Unless you're LeBron, it is definitely a gamble to think you can still get $20+ million in a renegotiated contract three years down the road.

 

The 25 min/game would be to start the season and has been made quite clear. Also, on Ilgauskas, he had his surgery when he was almost 26. Yao had his at 28. You're not exactly talking about a dramatic difference.

 

Cat, you would sign a 7 year deal, IF you are planning to stay with your team, or they can work out a sign and trade with wherever the player decides to go.

But, if not, then you just sign a 6 year max contract with a 3 year out and then re-up after 3 to make up that money, and then some.

Thus, it not actually being lost...

DD

 

Not necessarily. There's no such thing as a guarantee. What if my value went down in the next three years, due to injury or other issues? What if the team entered rebuilding because of factors (LeBron knee goes out) out of my control? What if the new collective bargaining agreement puts the hammer down on maximum salaries?

Things happen all the time. Three years ago, I don't think any of us regretted Tracy McGrady's max deal. Now? If we had Tracy on the books for another year at $25 million, we'd be on the verge of tears and he'd be the most overpaid player in all of sports. That's how quickly valuations change.

I can tell you from personal experience - players talk in terms of guaranteed money. Wink-wink deals don't carry weight, because too many factors change. If team A offers me a guaranteed $130 million and team B offers me a guaranteed $100 million, I'm going to think long and hard, even if I might like team B's situation a little more. All the promises and potential opt-outs in the world don't offer the security of a guaranteed contract. And I can absolutely promise you that that's how players think.

 

25 compared to 29 is major difference....Lebron is what kept Big Z's career afloat.

25min to start the season and when will it go up? What happens when the game is tied going into the 4th qtr ? of a back to back? He is an injury waiting to happen , face the facts.

 

Yao had his surgery at 28.

Also, LeBron didn't have some kind of magic power that enabled the bones in Ilgauskas' feet not to break when running up and down the floor for 82 games a season. The operation did that.

When will the minutes go up? Just as Ilgauskas' did - on a gradual basis. It'll go up by the end of the first season and especially the second season after surgery, when he broke the 30 minutes per game mark.

Yao had a radical reconstruction of his foot that makes its structure significantly different than the one over a year ago that led to multiple breaks. I'm willing to give it a chance. And on the second night of back-to-backs in that initial season back, if you have Bosh, that Luis Scola guy isn't so bad (if Yao's minutes are limited).

PS: How many back to backs are there in the playoffs?

 

Seeing as how we would have to give up considerably less to get al Jefferson he might actually help our team more than Chris bosh.

 

That's what The Cat is saying, DD, except that he doesn't believe a guy would leave that 7th guaranteed year at the table. If, for some reason (like an injury), the player decides to not exercise that option, they lose the year, as well as the higher raises per year, every year of the contract. Not chump change. That's the sort of scenario that gives an agent ulcers.

 

I guess for some free agents like Chris Bosh, its a battle between reason and emotion.

One option seems more reasonable from a financial perspective, while his fondness for dwayne wade tells him to take that other option.

 

I get it Deckard,

And that may happen, someone will have to cave in, and that is usually the organization, otherwise they lose their asset for nothing, and that is horrible asset management.

The teams with cap space can simply trade future picks for these guys...and get a massive trade exception.

So, I am not saying it will happen, but to me, the $30 million lost figure is a bit disengenuous as players can easily make it up.

DD

 

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=188576

haha. This is how I know (look at the time stamps). The Rockets would not plan such an event if they were not confident that something big was gonna happen. btw, look out for more news on this event later.

 

In terms of his emotion - I don't even think it's that. I honestly think that Bosh is considering teams like the Rockets, Mavs and Lakers near the top of his "emotion" list as well. It's the national media that doesn't get it. All the national media sees are the teams with cap room, and they ask questions accordingly. Most don't even understand the sign-and-trade concept or the extra $30 million that would be left on the table.

So, as a result, the questions asked to Bosh are 99% centered around teams with cap room. And of course he's going to act flattered and fond of them - he'd be an absolute business idiot not to be. I feel pretty confident that if Bosh were peppered with questions about the Rockets (as well as other "trade" contenders like the Mavs and Lakers), you'd hear glowing praise about them as well.

The difference is that the questions simply aren't being asked, at least not in the volume that they are for Chicago and Miami. And obviously Bosh can't go out of his way to randomly bring up a team, or that would be borderline tampering. So the perception has become what it is, but what most people don't realize is that it's a largely media-created perception. I'm not sure it's reality.

 

What makes you think that?

I believe he has made up his mind and will force Toronto to get what they can get.

Have you heard something or this is just a feeling?

Admittadly, that is all mine is....

DD

 

That's a fantastic line

Great point, you're right. I usually figure why get my hopes up and that kind of thing.

 

To the prior DD post...

The reason most organizations "cave" to the players is when there isn't a lot of competition, like Rashard Lewis, who had no other big offers outside of Orlando. In that scenario, they have no leverage with the team in a trade because they have no real offer to bounce it against. In a circumstance like this where the organization has the potential to get a pretty good return (look at all the S&T options interested), I think there's the potential for them to play hardball.

It's just a feeling. Part of it is because there are contradicting reports from reputable sources as to where he's "headed", which tells me people are guessing. But the trade factor is what makes me think he's going to wait. These aren't chump teams that are apparently interested in him. He's from Texas, and both the Rockets and Mavs are championship-talent level teams with him. The Lakers, it goes without saying. All have damn good trade bait for Toronto, effectively guaranteeing him that extra $30 million. Chicago and Miami in particular don't have much bait, if any.

If nothing else, even if Bosh is sold on Chicago or Miami, he may need HOU/DAL/LAL to use as leverage to force CHI/MIA to give a pick to Toronto in a sign and trade and give him that seventh year. Overall, there's just too much guaranteed money at stake and too many quality teams with assets for Bosh to have made a decision before negotiations begin, imo.

 

For our sake, we should all be rooting for LeBron to re-sign with Cleveland, and Amar'e to sign with Miami. These moves would very much help our chances with Bosh...

 

Hopefully, this thread turns out like Brooksball's "we're not going to make the playoffs" thread. So people can stop treating the gazillion bspn rumors like they're gospel or something.