Is Trump a Better or Worse Candidate Than He Was in 2016?

Well, he's 4 years closer to the end of everything, so....better? He's also 4 years more diminished mentally, so ... worse?

 

Unfortunately selling the economy is a taking point. It's sad because people were saying the same thing about how well the economy was doing using gdp growth and unemployment rate numbers literally 1.5 years before one of the largest economic crashes of all time back in 2006. Similar pattern to. High deficit spending, high consumer debt, low fed interest rates and small real wage growth. But hey, gdp gdp was high.

Unfortunately, old tradional metrics such as GDP growth don't paint a realistic picture of how the citizens as a whole are doing in a country but it's a lag effect in that the vast majority of voters haven't caught on with decoupling GDP growth with economic health.

This isn't unique with Trump. Any president would try to sell gdp growth an unemployment numbers while still having the same systemic issues facing this nation such as vast majority of Americans still living pay check to pay check and almost half of America either not having any healthcare at all or effectively not having any healthcare because they are afraid to use their plan because they are afraid of out of pocket expenses such as absurd costs of deductibles.

 

All of these things were true in 2018 and the GOP got their ass kicked. The dislike of Trump is personal, which is why his approval ratings are so disconnected from the economy or people's personal happiness.

 

Much worse candidate.

He solidify his base while alienating everyone else at some point. He can't win with just his base.

 

in one sense Trump is a far better candidate than he was in 2016.

in 2016 he was a political novice with no experience.

In 2020 he's gonna have four years of actually being President under his belt.

and that's four more years than any of his likely opponents.

best not to underestimate him again.

 

That is an advantage. The devil you know is better than the devil you don't know. The other home court advantage is his campaign is much better funded, plus cheating and foreign interference is now a-ok and fully expected with the power of the gov at his disposal to execute on those.

But if I don't consider any of those other things and just the candidate himself, he's worse off. In 2016, he was "campaigning" and people gave him a chance to moderate (I hoped he would) . In 2019, he's exactly who he was in 2016 - there is no chance of moderation. It's black and white. You get what you see.

 

The advantage that incumbents have is unlimited, free PR, which Trump will exploit as much as possible.

The being President part is actually a huge disadvantage for Trump. Trump still does not understand the job, how government works, etc. Like tariffs. I suspect that Trump does not care how tariffs actually work; he knows that he can sell it to make himself look favorable.

 

I've been saying this for awhile that it would be a huge mistake of the Democrats to underestimate Trump. I think he is a tougher candidate now than he was in 2016 as not only has he solidified his base but he also has the power of incumbency and a good (relatively) economy behind him. Trump's weakness has always been his inability for him or anyone else to control himself. If this was any other Republican outside of the Gohmerts this would be a landslide.

I will still stand by what I've been saying for the last two years. This election is going to be a toss up and it will come down to how much Trump can get beyond his base. If Trump succeeds in getting suburban voters in districts like MN 2 to hold their nose and vote for him because they feel as other posters have noted the economy is doing well and there hasn't bee a disaster it is over no matter who the Democrats run. If it is Sanders it will be hoping that Trump doesn't expand his base and how many more blue votes Sanders can squeeze out of blue areas in WI, PA, and MI that didn't vote in the same numbers in 2016 as they did in 2012.

I feel confident in my prediction that Trump will again lose the popular vote and probably by more than he did the previous election. That said he could build on his electoral victory and possibly swing MN and NH, two states he narrowly lost.

 

In case I haven't stated it enough WORST potus ever.

 

has he though?

his MAIN CAMPAIGN PROMISE was that mexico was going to pay for his border wall. now he is stealing money from the pentagon.

he said he would eliminate the deficit in 8 years. i know we are only 4 years in, but he has actually increased it. national debt too. he has increased it by $3 trillion. how can any fiscal conservatives support this?

candidate trump said that once he got elected he would start acting presidential, or at least start acting like a mature adult. that certainly never happened.

i think biden has the best shot of beating trump so thats who im supporting, but i expect trump will win again. the one good thing is that being president takes a real toll on your health so the longer he is in office the shorter his life will be. you can already see him physically and mentally deteriorating. hes already a blubbering fool who looks sh***er by the day. imagine him in 4 more years. it aint going to look good.

ironically, i think if hillary were running in 2020 she would win and if it had been bernie in 2016 he would have won.

 

Yeah, right now it is basically impossible to know. Still a lot that could happen between now and then too, that could make him stronger or weaker.

 

Delete

 

FYI this is ranty and not all directed at your comment.... just thoughts...

There are many ways to measure an economy... you can boast about GDP, but look jobs grew. That's what people want. Also long-term growth requires standing up to China and addressing the amount of immigration you take on. BUT I could do what many outlets that are anti-Trump are doing... I could throw shade and cherry pick numbers. But the fact is it's about policies and how they effect the economy too. For example Sanders... his policies would be a complete **** show compared to Trump's policies. And I will say this... Trump's spending is high as hell and I don't like all of his policy, but at least he gives his strump speech with some real ideas, whether you agree or not. I also think he's weak on healthcare and a lot could be done to lower costs without the govt stepping in and taking over it. Now look at Sanders who just wants to give you things and tax tax taxx. Just promising "free" healthcare won't cut it... that's not a plan and despite sounding nice, are not popular when people realize how much it will raise their taxes. Most Americans see through this thankfully and that's why the Dems, if they pick Bernie, are shooting themselves in the foot. I chose Bernie as an example, but generally Dems still don't understand that their genius ideas are seen as tax increases and people like keeping their money. But yeah Trump isn't perfect on the economy, but he's definitely not screwing up to run on it. Hell that's the best bet. Bernie's biggest bad decision is running on the economy... the dude needs to shut up about that and would be better off just selling is personality. Hell, I really liked Bernie in 2016... I was actually all for him over Hilary because I find him to be generally one of the best guys you'll get running for office, despite his **** policy. That's a better choice than Clinton any day.

 

It's statements like this were I feel like you are gaslighting me. Trump is the most platitudic least nuanced president in American history when it comes to "ideas" or rather policy. The fact that you actually made this argument means that the vast difference in perception we have on reality means that no amount of debating will be productive here.

It's just such a absurd statement.

 

Perhaps but if I recall a lot of those wins the Dems took were easier wins for the Dems based on voting patterns anyway. This next round may actually see the Dems lose the house. If that happens it may be bad because I like to see both parties have a say... I hate the idea of any party having a complete mandate for legislation.

 

Sorry it's absurd sounding to you. I just feel that his main positions on China and immigration are good for the economy in the long-term. I've argued that in many other threads.. We can disagree and it doesn't hurt either of us.

I do absolutely agree that GDP is a false metric to realize how an economy is.

 

What are those "ideas"?

TaRiFfs? Please show any nuance beyond that when it comes to Trump and his "ideas"? Hint: if a grade schooler can come up with the "idea" it isn't really worthy of being an idea with fleshed out nuanced policy.

The problem with Trump is that he doesn't know anything beyond "tariffs". He doesn't even know that a net trading deficit with another country isn't a automatic negative because countries with a developed middle class tend to spend more on consumer items.

 

" So pre-existing conditions are a tough deal. Because you are basically saying from the moment the insurance, you’re 21 years old, you start working and you’re paying $12 a year for insurance, and by the time you’re 70, you get a nice plan. Here’s something where you walk up and say, “I want my insurance.” It’s a very tough deal, but it is something that we’re doing a good job of. " - DJT

That was Trump answering a reporter's question on pre-existing conditions. The dude doesn't give two ***** about policy. He has no intellectual curiosity and just panders. The dude has no "ideas". His ideas are merely in the realm of selling himself. That is the only aspect he cares about.

This economy Trump is bragging about is being fueled by consumer debt. Hence why consumer debt is at all time highs currently.

 

It will all come down to turnout and who is at the top of the ticket. A big turnout and the Democrat likely wins the presidency, Democrats possibly take back the Senate, and limit losses in the House. In my opinion, there are a huge number of moderate Democrats and independent voters ready to vote him out of office and change the direction of the party. If Senator Sanders gets the nomination, a large number of them just might stay home. If Sanders doesn't get the nomination and endorses whoever wins with the lack of enthusiasm he exhibited in 2016, it will only help trump.

Personally, I'm not wild about any of the candidates running to head the Democratic ticket. However, I've been around long enough to see what can win elections, and what is likely to lose, in my opinion. Defeating trump is of paramount importance. Nothing else comes close.

You left out some people, Jay. ;-)

The GOP is a minority party. They have consistently lost the popular vote by millions. Ms Clinton had 3,000,000 more votes than trump in 2016. The Democratic Party had 3,000,000 more votes in the 2018 elections. Turnout is everything. There is so much the man has done to damage the country. trump has exploded the budget by giving the rich a huge tax cut, which has fueled the market. What has been drowned out by the noise trump keeps making is that the economy was already doing well when he took office. Some would argue that it was doing better under Obama, depending on which metric you use. In his 2020 budget, on top of what he has already "accomplished" since being elected, and it would have been far worse if Democrats hadn't taken the House in 2018, he's proposed these cuts:

Environmental Protection Agency - 31%
State and USAID - 24%
Transportation - 19%
Housing and Urban Development - 16%
Agriculture - 15%
Interior - 14%
Health and Human Services - 12%
Education - 12%
Energy - 11%
Labor - 10%
Justice - 2%
NASA - 2%
Treasury - 2%

Some details? In my opinion, these cuts are to help pay for his massive tax cut for the rich. Cuts that impact the poor, the elderly, the sick, and the college student, current and those with student loans. These are just a few. Check the details of the cuts in the departments above and it's shocking. Remember, this is far from all he's proposing, and doesn't take into account what he's done since he's been in office.

- Cuts $845 billion over the next 10 years from Medicare, the federal program that provides health insurance to older Americans.

- Removes $241 billion from Medicaid, the health-care program for low-income Americans, over the next decade as part of an overhaul that shifts more power to states.

- Slashes $220 billion from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) over the next decade, with proposed reforms including mandatory work requirements and food box delivery service in lieu of cash benefits for low-income families.

- Reductions to the federal student loan programs that total $207 billion in the next 10 years and include eliminating Public Service Loan Forgiveness and subsidized student loans.