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Is this the November Surprise or just smoke?

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Old Man Rock, Oct 30, 2008.

  1. Old Man Rock

    Old Man Rock Contributing Member

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    Obama Supporter Blows Whistle

    Take it for what it's worth it is right wing site but I would say why is Obama spending so much time in PA and now a surprise trip to Iowa both with double digit leads and last week to New hampshire where he supposedly by one poll had a 25 point lead. Something isn't kosher. Also if you look at this poll from the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll gave McCain a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted.

    Florida early voting

    That was supposed to be obama's stronghold getting out the vote. But it doesn't look lik it's happening.

    And also California (link) early voting Obama and Mccain are tied in the most liberal state in the country. I don't believe for 1 minute McCain will win CA but this is a state Obama has a 25 point lead in. If his get out to early vote, stump speech is not working in CA and Florida where he out spent McCain 6 to 1 then he is in for a long night on tuesday. And it appears the Democratic PUMA's may be the November surprise.
     
  2. IROC it

    IROC it Contributing Member

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    <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/eOFRIWx5F9c&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/eOFRIWx5F9c&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

    Surprise!
     
  3. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost clean your room bucko

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    I'd love it if that were the surprise.
     
  4. London'sBurning

    London'sBurning Contributing Member

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    I think given how much money he's received in donations its his obligation to put the money to as much use as possible and campaign to the bitter end. It's also related to his whole statement as of late. Don't proclaim victory until he has actually won.

    I think that makes a lot more sense than saying he's campaigning because the polls are against him. Of course he's going to campaign even if he has the lead. Only an idiot would stop their campaign right now.
     
  5. Old Man Rock

    Old Man Rock Contributing Member

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    You may be right but I thought this election was over with last week. The polls convinced me of that. And now I am not so sure.
     
  6. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    Remember 2000 when Karl Rove had Bush slow down during the last week because of overconfidence while Gore was catching fire. It almost changed the outcome. No matter what the polls say, Obama has no choice but to campaign hard to the very end.

    Regarding Pennsylvania, it is the "firewall" for Obama. It is the state McCain MUST win to even have a chance. Since McCain has put so much energy into it, Obama's logical response is to invest there also.
     
  7. HAYJON02

    HAYJON02 Contributing Member

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    They feel so strongly that that they wont put their name to it. Hm. That's solid right there.

    Anytime someone starts with a laundry list of qualifications, it seems like a republican wrote it. These guys are nothing if not desparate. It wouldn't surprise me in the least.
     
  8. dandorotik

    dandorotik Contributing Member

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    "Another Obama campaign staffer spills guts from redstate.com (cant attest to the authenticity of it but sounds interesting)…"

    Can't attest to the authenticity of it...
    Can't attest to the authenticity of it...
    Can't attest to the authenticity of it...

    There are at least 11 fallacies, inconsistencies, and biases in this that I'm calling both B.S. on its veracity and .6% on its impact. What a waste of 3 minutes reading this silliness. Thank God I'm done with the D&D until November 5.
     
  9. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine
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    Every poll has Obama leading. Even if a quarter of the polls are dead wrong, which isn't so likely, Obama is still polling ahead.

    Anyway, of all the states in which party affiliation is recorded for early voting there isn't a single state in which Republicans have outnumbered Democrats.

    http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

    If that trend continues through election day, the only prayer that McCain has of winning is to gain 55+% of the independent vote. Once again though, those polls favor Obama.

    [​IMG]

    The numbers that are available right now just don't add up for McCain. At this point he'd need some sort of perfect storm of circumstances to win. A bad weather day to supress the vote in heavy Democrat areas, voting machine chicanery, a really bad gaffe from Biden, a terrorist attack, and/or a significant racial backlash against Obama.
     
  10. London'sBurning

    London'sBurning Contributing Member

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    Yea that's exactly my point. You fight hard to the very end.
     
  11. Zac D

    Zac D Contributing Member

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    I think if it were real, the person would have spelled Lieberman and Pfleger correctly.
     
  12. Old Man Rock

    Old Man Rock Contributing Member

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    I am not standing by it's authenticy. It could all be made upi. But I am questioning the early polling which is by legtimate sources. Also I understand Florida and Virginia both of which he has 7 to 9 point leads. But I owa and PA and last week in New Hampshire. He has to know something the public polls aren't showing. Why would he waste more time their when he definitely doesn't have Ohio or Nevada locked up. The biggest deal is that there are more democrats voting early than republicans in Florida almost 2-1 and yet Mccain is winning 49% to 45%/ That is surprising to me. And could mean there are alot of PUMA's out there ready to vote for McCain. We'll known soon enough. But as I said before I thought this race was over and now I am not so sure.

    Oh great win for my Rockets! I am excited about Brooks and Artest.
     
  13. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine
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    Read your own article dude.



    A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll gave McCain a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted.

    And Republicans continued to show a traditional strength, leading 50 percent to the Democrats' 30 percent in the 1.2 million absentee ballots already returned.

    Conducted Oct. 25-27, the Los Angeles Times poll gave Obama a 50-47 lead overall in Florida. Only a tiny fraction of the Florida respondents reported voting early, leaving McCain's lead subject to a wide margin of error. A Quinnipiac University poll, released Wednesday, showed early voters favoring Obama 58-34, another small sample with a potentially wide margin of error.
     
  14. Faos

    Faos Contributing Member

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    http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?print=yes&id=29267

    Overview: Obama has huge advantages in the polls, in enthusiasm, in organization, in media coverage, and in cash. He is certainly the favorite, but talk of a blowout ignores the details.

    1. National polls, which are only of indirect importance, don't show a blowout. Also, while Obama has much of the challenger appeal that normally would indicate his picking up late undecided votes, McCain is actually more likely, in most parts of the country, to pick up the late undecideds. Expect an Obama total of around 52%.

    2. Many Electoral College counters are showing a huge Obama blowout on that score. This, too, is overblown (see Electoral College section, below). States like Ohio, Missouri, and North Carolina, where Obama posts small leads but comes in under 50%, still lean towards McCain, in fact. If McCain makes a late, desperate negative attack that plays wrong, we could see an Obama blowout, but as of now, Obama is looking at a big win, but not a Reaganesque one.

    3. The key for Obama is not exactly his enthusiasm edge--that helps, and has important trickle-down effects on congressional and Senate contests--but his organizational advantage. In states like Virginia, Obama has dozens of field offices, all with paid staff. This is the case in all swingable states.

    4. The election is still winnable for McCain. Remember that pollsters are factoring into their results an assumed higher black turnout and higher youth turnout than normal. Also, remember that Republican voters--especially this year, with Democratic politicians attributing opposition to Obama to racism or redneck prejudice--are far coyer about answering pollsters.

    Electoral College: As in 2000 and 2004, the presidential focus is on Ohio and Florida in the final days, along with Pennsylvania, McCain's Hail Mary Plan B.

    1. McCain has a good shot of winning one or two of these three states, but he is in the same position as the Tampa Bay Rays, currently in the World Series: He has to win all three, or he is done.

    2. With McCain apparently abandoning the West in these final weeks, Colorado and New Mexico are certainly leaning towards Obama. Even without Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, or Florida, Obama wins as long as he hangs onto Pennsylvania, which right now looks to be firmly in Obama's column.

    3. Even if Obama were to lose Pennsylvania and Ohio, he could win by picking up Florida, or two of the following states: Virginia, North Carolina, or Nevada.

    4. Right now, we foresee McCain winning most of the closest states. Despite slim poll leads for Obama or statistical ties, we see McCain as the favorite in Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Montana, Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina. Obama, however, is poised to capture Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, and New Hampshire.

    5. Florida is the toughest state to read. Reuters/Zogby has a tie, while all other polls show Obama above 50%. McCain's advantage among the senior vote has eroded, and the Cuban advantage has melted away. Still, barring a late Obama surge there, McCain will eke this one out.

    6. In Pennsylvania, McCain is making a strong, but long-shot push. He is skipping the Southwest corner of the state that includes Pittsburgh and Rep. John Murtha's “redneck” counties, focusing instead on Reagan Democrat territory--also known as Casey Country. With Sarah Palin by his side, can he rally pro-life conservative Democrats to his camp?

    7. Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, and Missouri have all moved into play, so if there is an Obama landslide, those states could fall. Probably, however, they will stay Red.

    8. On the other side of the ledger, New Hampshire is not quite as certain for Obama as it might seem. A McCain upset in the Granite State is possible--but it would matter only if he could hold onto Virginia, in which case we could be looking at an Electoral College tie.

    9. In our current read of the Electoral College, Obama wins on the strength of carrying all the Kerry 2004 states plus a few pickups in the middle of the country: New Mexico, Colorado, and Iowa--with Virginia as gravy.

    10. Despite all the sound and fury since our previous Electoral College count, the only change we see is Virginia moving into the Obama column, padding his lead in Electoral Votes. Obama 286, McCain 252.
     
  15. JeopardE

    JeopardE Contributing Member

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    Ahahahahaha.

    This is what is has come to...the Republicans manufacturing stories from disaffected Hillary Clinton supporters to try and convince people that the race is closer than what the polls say, that somehow, there is a grand conspiracy by the Obama Campaign to manipulate literally hundreds of polls. I was listening to Rush Limbaugh for fun this morning and I heard him tell a slightly different version of this same story, allegedly picked off some random website. And yes, he actually attempted to tell his listeners that all the polls were being manipulated and should not be believed. Hilarious.

    LOL -- this has to be one of the most pathetic October surprises ever.
     
  16. The Cat

    The Cat Contributing Member

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    I agree with that. :p
     
  17. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    You may be right but we won't know for sure until November 4th. I agree that this late talk of a so-called November Surprise is a bunch of hot air. Limbaugh is the biggest bag of wind ever.
     
  18. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    You know what the most suprising part of this November surpise is?

    That it happened in October.
     
  19. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

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    I thought there was something that would have meat.

    Hillary Voters supporting McCain has been known since she lost the democratic primary.

    Sarah Palin isn't new either.

    McCain's attack on Obama's character was obvious and Obama associating Bush with McCain was obvious.

    The Bradley effect isn't a surprise. It has been talked about constantly.

    I thought this was gonna be a real surprise like video footage of Osama Bin Laden in Barack's living room laughing at McCain and planning suicide bombings.
     
  20. pgabriel

    pgabriel Contributing Member

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    If obama can manipulate the whole country, then he should be president.
     

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