We don't know IF there will be a luxury tax next year of what it would be or who might be eligible for FA and when. The MLB Master agreement with the MLBPA expires and proposals are all over the table. So this off season is about UNCERTAINTY.
Yep. Considering all factors (pre-arb players, current high paid players, pitching core, impending FA’s)… this is likely a 3 year solid window of contending with Correa. With some unexpected/unknown additions, good health, and continued upward trajectory of Alvarez/Tucker, that could go to 5 years with Correa (including a declining Altuve on a year to year deal and loss of Bregman). Its the 3-5 years after that that are likely to see an end to this team’s contending ways…. And years they could be in position to have to move Correa’s contract or be on the hook.
I’m not that worried about contracts past 2024 because there is no way Altuve’s next extension approaches $29M in his age 35 season and if Bregman doesn’t get his lower body issues fixed and his MVP swing back, the Astros aren’t going to be looking to keep him at his $29M number, either. In that case, they could take some of that money and work out an extension with either Tucker or Alvarez.
While things are uncertain, I highly doubt they make drastic changes to the arbitration/free agency model, other than ensuring teams stop jerking around top prospects to control them for an extra year. However, I can see MLB making the luxury tax number lower and more punitive.
Weird that keeping Correa by giving him Verlander's money would make it impossible for the Astros to compete next year.
I was also one of the few people here that said don't resign springer nor Cole. You don't win in baseball by signing your youngsters to massive deals after their arb years. Milk them for what you can and move on to the next one. That's what made us successful so far and we only made an exception for altuve bcz he's the face of the franchise. People forget how injury prone Correa is and once he signs a big contract who knows whatll happen. Go after Rodon or try to trade for Glasnow and offer him a reasonable contract similar to what we did to Lance or a little higher. Rays don't have the $$ to resign him. Rodon shouldn't be too expensive. We've got alot of old players on our team and we need go shore up our pitching. Glasnow Lance Valdez Garcia
Your solution to the “injury prone” Correa is to sign two pitchers who are literally injured? Correa’s only injury that was unique compared to what Bregman has, Altuve had, Brantley has, Springer hasetc…. Is the back, which has not been an issue for over 2 years. He was always young enough to train his way out of it, especially since there was never anything structural requiring a procedure. Your strategy is also one emulated by the Rays/A’s… but for it to fully work, you have to trade one of Alvarez/Tucker before they start making big money in arbitration to replenish the farm with ace prospects. Yes, it can turn you into a possible contender on a very cheap budget… but there is absolutely no building of a fan base, no legacies, no real history being established (even if you win it all), and while winning is technically all that matters… owners do also cash in on season ticket renewals (fans come to watch names/wins) influenced by superstars that have generational followings, and watching the same core year after year compete.
Glasnow didn't have the TJ surgery until August. He's most likely out all of next season. Probably not a move the Astros are willing to make. Rodon couldn't go more than 5.0 innings in his last 8 starts because his shoulder fell apart. If he's getting a multiyear deal I would not be interested.
f you are going all-in with no thought to the future, follow the Angels plan. Sign 3 or 4 guys and surround them with crap. It's worked so well for them. Give Correa 500 Million. Give Alvarez and Tucker 500M while you're at it. Why not? Your kids SHOULD have to learn to follow a team like I did when a 500 season was considered a banner year. I prefer a lineup 7 or 8 deep of next tier players. I'd like to see Javier stretched out to go with Framber and Luis and Lance. But that means planning NOW for it. The Astros aren't playing that game. They let Morton Walk. They let Cole Walk. They let Springer Walk.And they'll probably let Correa Walk. And we're in the World Series. HOW? Move the line to the next guy.
Wor All about Signing Latin 15 - 20 yr old Free Agents, or a Yuli a 30 yr old Free Agent. Sign most of your draft picks, scout and draft speedy, athletic players and Pitchers with 3 pitches already, with high spin rate and movement. Let them add strength and then they will throw with high velocity.
Or, you pay everyone, win 4 world series, go into debt doing it, and then sell your franchise for 7 billion when it used to be worth 500 million. When you go all in you guarantee your future. You remove doubt. Remove money and personnel from the equation. It works every time.
That's the theory from 1996. It worked for the Yankees then except for the sell the franchise part. And the YES Network they have worked for them and our attempt FAILED because the cable execs aren't local baseball fans and wouldn't buy the desirability for Astros baseball. Ask Drayton McClain if selling a team means washing your hands of future headaches. He's in court right now.
The difference between a playoff team and a WS contending team the next 3 years is Correa. There are no other ways outside of pitching to upgrade the roster. The drop off from Correa and other options at SS are huge. In Crane I trust because this is the most prolonged consistent era of excellence we've ever had in Houston Sports. Even with the 90s rockets, we were only real contenders for about 4 years.
You're a guy who values players over winning? Hanging onto Bagwell/Biggio to long is what lead to the rebuild that currently made the Stros a championship level team. I would rather not have to go through that again and if you make the right decisions this team has another 5-10 years of championship contending left in them. I just wish Luhnow was the guy making these decisions.
I'm glad someone else posted this because it confused the heck out of me....like did I watch the same Astros team that others on here watched back in the 90s and early 2000s?
People seem to forget how Drayton wasted the prime years those Astros squads by gutting the farm system to the point where the best prospect of the decade was Hunter Pence. This Astros team has dynasty chemistry. You can't just expect to replace that
‘This right here, you have to ride this squad out as long as possible. But I’ll add though, the Big Red Machine In Cincinnati had a similar run to these Astros and their run will likely come to a similar ending unfortunately..
