So you claimed you had a pretty good idea of what the roster would look like in 2025. When asked for specifics, you could name 4 players who'd likely be here in 2024, two of whom wouldn't be under contract in 2025. Well done.
Realistically, if the Astros are going to keep him, something like this (maybe with a couple of fewer years) is the strongest offer they can make. Front load a contract for 3-4 years, meaning it's 50/50 Correa stays beyond that, and if he does, it's at a lower rate. That gives Correa the ability to max his income potential but also protect from downside. And it lets the Astros pay properly for his prime and then less for later years, and know that if the Astros aren't contenders but Correa is still good, he's incentivized to opt out and free up payroll to rebuild. Try to sell Correa on the idea that over the next 3-4 years, Astros are legitimate WS contenders and he has a chance to brand himself as one of the best postseason players in MLB history thanks to the sheer number of opportunities he'd get.
I'm pretty sure Framber and Garcia will be here too, along with LMJ if his arm holds out. Pillars Depending on what they do with Correa, Pena and Lee can be added to that number. BTW, I'm doing this off of the top of my head.
Interesting idea. Here's another. Where were our current Roster players in 2017? How many were projectable as 2021 Roster members? For purposes of this exercise, I will include those on the 60 day DL. Active 1. Zack Greinke - Under Contract ARI 2. Jose Urquidy - Astros A - DNP 3. Jake Odorizzi - TBR 4. Kendall Graveman - OAK 5. Luis Garcia - Amateur FA New signing 6. Framber Valdez - Astros AA 7. Phil Maton - SDP 8. Cristian Javier - Astros A+ 9. Ryan Pressly - MIN 10. Ryne Stanek - TBR 11. Yimi Garcia - LAD DNP 12. Brooks Raley - OOB 13. Blake Taylor - NYM A 14. Michael Brantley - CLE 15. Martin Maldenado - LAA 16. Yordan Alvarez - HOU A+ 17. Kyle Tucker - HOU AA *18. Yuli Gurriel - 1B HOU *19. Alex Bregman - 3B HOU 20. Jose Siri - CIN A 21. Jason Castro - MIN 22. Aledmys Diaz - STL *23. Carlos Correa - SS HOU 24. Chas McCormick - HOU A+ 25. Jake Meyers - HOU A- *26. Jose Altuve - 2B HOU Roster 27. Pedro Baez - LAD 33. Forrest Whitley - HOU AA 34. Peter Solomon - HOU RK 35. Enoli Paredes - HOU A 36. Josh James - HOU AA 37. Seth Martinez - OAK A *38. Lance McCullers, Jr. - P HOU 39. Bryan Abreu - HOU Rk 40. Brandon Bielak - HOU Rk 41. Andre Scrubb - LAD A 42. Jairo Solis HOU Rk *43. Marwin Gonzales - UT HOU 44. Garrett Stubbs - HOU AAA 45. Taylor Jones - HOU A+ 60-Day IL 28. Kent Emmanuel - HOU AAA 29. Tyler Ivey - HOU A- *30. Justin Verlander - P HOU 31. Rafael Montero - NYM 32. Freudis Nova - HOU Rk
Before last season, I didn’t really see Correa returning because of the injury issues and the contract he would seek. However, my opinion of him changed drastically when he was the one player on the team that had the balls to tell the world that the Astros were a great team regardless of the sign-stealing scandal and to get over it. He morphed into one of the faces of the franchise and team leader that day, and he said what every Astros’ fan was yearning for someone to say. It was then that I wanted him to stay in Houston for the long haul. Correa’s value to this team and franchise extends beyond his play on the diamond. Yes, he’s a great hitter, fielder, baserunner, and postseason performer that lives for big moments. But, he’s also the guy that is always helping calm down Astros’ pitchers in meetings at the mound. He is the guy that shuts down accusations from other teams about whether the Astros are still cheating. Jose Altuve called him the team leader after game 1 against the Red Sox. The team voted him team MVP and someone from the organization was quoted in a recent Athletic article saying they wouldn’t be where they are this season without him. Not to mention, Correa’s defense/arm at shortstop helps the Astros’ young pitchers look as good as they do. Also, he exudes confidence, and it’s pretty obvious that he’s one of those guys that has a swagger to him. He was the guy that also convinced Marwin to come back when Boston released him after the trade deadline. Finally, above all else, he went on an Astros’ radio show before this season and said he wanted to remain an Astro long term. Jim Crane needs to do what it takes to keep him here and ensure the double-play tandem of Correa and Altuve remains intact.
Seems that Correa and the team really like Dusty Baker. I wonder if Correa would tell Jim Crane to bring back Baker if he stays. Now this is pre world series and we don't know what the end result will be. Could change depending on what happens, not sure.
It seems to me that if the Astros don't retain Correa, it's unlikely they will ever keep any of their homegrown elite players unless they are willing to take a notable discount. It seems all the stars are aligned here: He WANTS to be here He is the emotional/vocal leader of the team He's at the sweet spot age for free agency and getting a player's best years (about as early as you get, unlike a Springer type) He's elite defensively at the most important defensive position He has enough of a sample size to say he relishes the biggest moments The team is having the most success they'll ever have and they have a definite window of contention for several more years His chronic back health concern (the one risk with him) seems to be mostly behind him Lots of money is coming off the payroll this year w/ Verlander/Greinke and the team has a whole rotation of cheap pitching talent for the next several years. Brantley and maybe Yuli come off the books in another year as well. It seems if you're not willing/able to keep Correa, there's no reason to think you'd be willing to keep any elite player without a discount because it's unlikely there will be a more perfect fit.
Agreed. That was my general conclusion as well. The alternative is if player X accepts an early extension that buys out 2-3 years of their FA years (like they did with Bregman), and then the team has a chance to give them a 2nd extension… which may be more team friendly in years/$$$ given that the player will be a little older (or on the flip side, the team may decide they no longer want to retain the player given that they’ve got their best years out of them… Bregman may also be an example of that in 3 years). They paid market value for Altuve. They paid market value for JV. Provided they could get out of CC’s contract in 6-7 years IF the team is non-competitive, I’d be fine with paying the going rate in total years.
Heyman: No guarantees. Don’t bet. Just guesses, they may be educated but just guesses. Javy Baez: Very good job with Mets other than thumbs down. Restored his viability as a free agent. I think the Cubs are gonna get him back. That’d be my guess. They were close when the pandemic came. Both sides like each other. … Wouldn’t rule out the Mets. Kris Bryant: I’m gonna say Bryant takes Baez’s place and goes to the Mets. … Giants like him, perhaps a return but Mets there. Anthony Rizzo: I’m gonna guess the Red Sox. … Kyle Schwarber: I’m gonna say Schwarber ends up with the Phillies Correa: It’s kinda split on who will get the biggest contract between Correa and Seager. I did a poll and Correa did win slightly over Seager. Both have been great in the postseason. … Correa is certainly helping his case. Trevor Story: Did not have his usual year. Throwing questions. Terrific player. Great 2-way player. I think he’ll go home to the Rangers. They said they’ll spend. I’ll say Story to the Rangers. Marcus Semien: Twins played big for him. I’ll go on a long shot and say the Twins may do it. It’ll be tough to outbid the Jays. If you’re really predicting it, you’d probably say Jays but I kinda like the Twins there. Carlos Correa: I’ve said the Tigers. AJ Hinch link is there but he likes the spotlight. Maybe Detroit isn’t bright enough for him. Maybe he’ll stay in Houston. I’m not ruling it out, even if they only offered $120M-$125M. They’re gonna have to more than double that to keep him. Corey Seager: I’m gonna say the Yankees. … One caveat there is their two best prospects are both SS, couple years away, but Seager can switch to 3B in 2-3 years. Robbie Ray: Wouldn’t be shocked if he goes back to Toronto. I’m gonna go Yankees again. When they spend, they really spend. Let’s not forget 2009 and 2013. They may get multiple guys. Nick Castellanos: I’m gonna go with the Brewers. I saw someone mention the Rockies. I’m gonna stick with Milwaukee. Max Scherzer: We have a hint. When the trade deadline came, he wanted to be in California. Seemed like he favored Southern California. I’m gonna say Dodgers, although Angels will be in there. Clayton Kershaw: Interested to see if he gets the QO. I’m assuming he’ll go back to LA. I could see Texas as the fallback. Justin Verlander: In Southern Cal as well, to the Angels. They need pitching. Albert Pujols: Maybe this is nostalgic but going back to the Cardinals. Nelson Cruz: He loved Minnesota. I’m gonna guess a reunion. Freddie Freeman: Atlanta. Can we see him leaving the Braves? That’d be shocking. They’re willing to give the Goldschmidt contract and maybe a little more. Leader of this team. He’ll beat the 5-year, $130M Goldschmidt contract, even if he takes a hometown discount.
Yep - it definitely seems less about the discount and more about the length of the contract. They seem willing to pay market value for shorter contracts. If there is going to be a player they will sign a longer contract for with the current ownership, then Carlos is it.
This is simply not true. For 2022, the Astros payroll without Correa sits between 135-140M. C: Maldonado and Castro about 9.25M combined 1B: Yuli ($8M team option) 2B: Altuve (29M) SS: TBD 3B: Bregman (12.67M, jumps to 29M in 2023) LF: Brantley (16M, free agent after 2022, turns 35 next May CF: Meyers and McCormick: pre-arbitration (1.3M combined) RF: Tucker (pre-arbitration, 650-700K) Bench: Diaz (4-5M, final year of arbitration), Meyers/McCormick, Castro (4.25M, free agent after 2022), Siri (arb 2, 650-700K) Offense combined: $87-$88M Pitching: McCullers: $17M for tax purposes Odorizzi: 8M (6.5M player option for 2023) Valdez (first year of arbitration, say 2-3M) Urquidy and Garcia: pre-arbitration (1.3-1.4M combined) Bullpen: Pressly (10M, free agent after the year) Stanek (second year of arbitration (2-3M) Maton (second year of arbitration (1.5M) Javier (pre-arbitration, 650-700K) Raley (pre-arbitration, made 2M this year) Taylor (pre-arbitration, 650-700K) Baez: 5.5M (2M buyout for 2023) Bielak and Abreu are pre-arbitration options in triple A, as is Enoli Paredes if he can find his command) Pitching: About $51M. Total payroll is about $138-$140M without Correa signed. They could sign both Correa and Graveman and still be well under the luxury tax threshold and the $197-$198M payroll they carried this year. They also have more than 45M in free agents after next season (Brantley, Diaz, Yuli, Castro, Pressly, and Baez’s 2M buyout) and could get over $50M if Odorizzi doesn’t take his $6.5M player option for 2023. Some of these guys like Yuli, Castro and Pressly I expect to be re-signed, but Brantley is 35 next season and Diaz may seek a starting role when he hits free agency. Tucker, Alvarez, Urquidy and Garcia all start their first year of arbitration in 2023, but they have the payroll flexibility to deal with those raises and have Correa under contract at a big number. The tough year will be 2024, as those guys all enter year 2 of arbitration, but Altuve’s contract expires after that season, and he turns 35 in 2025, so he won’t be making $29M at that point in his career. Bregman also hits free agency after that season.
