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Is this the last we will see of Carlos Correa?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by what, Oct 16, 2020.

  1. CinematicFusion

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    Lindor I'm sure will be looking for 27-33 million a season over 10 years.
     
  2. Hemingway

    Hemingway Member

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    There are tons of options that teams could move either Correa or their current SS to 3b. If he balls out he will break the bank. Sign him now for 30 mil 7-10 years.
     
  3. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    I’d do 7 years for $210M in a heartbeat.
     
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  4. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    What’s happened in the past doesn’t matter if he has a monster 2021 season - combined with his pedigree, age and record breaking playoff performances, he will get paid more than the others if he has that magical year and stays healthy throughout. I have little doubt there.
     
  5. bobrek

    bobrek Person, woman, man, camera, TV
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    Lets not forget these stats

    Lindor
    Screen Shot 2021-01-22 at 7.33.24 PM.jpg
    Screen Shot 2021-01-22 at 7.31.04 PM.jpg

    Correa
    Screen Shot 2021-01-22 at 7.33.24 PM.jpg
    Screen Shot 2021-01-22 at 7.30.46 PM.jpg
     
  6. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    I certainly did not forget them and mentioned Correa getting a boost from his playoff stats in my last sentence. However, Lance Berkman was a much better playoff performer compared to Jeff Bagwell. Nobody questions who was the better player and who deserved more money. Lindor's accomplishments are far and away better than Correa in the regular season. Correa is all world talent and could end up a better player IF he stayed healthy and IF he put it together for the next 5-6 years. Until then, Lindor is the more valuable player and will be paid as such in my opinion.
     
    Astrofan59 likes this.
  7. Milos

    Milos Member

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    CORREA 2021 MARKET VALUE
    While I agree that supply may exceed demand, I'm not so sure that means Correa remains an Astro beyond 2021
    I think your $200M (8yrs @ 25) number sounds about right, but it's so hard to judge what market value will be after 2 consecutive years of COVID-level revenues
    Good news is that Lindor is about to set the market once the Mets ink his extension, so we will get an idea before the season even starts

    I doubt any competent agent will advise any blue-chip clients to take some 10+ year Bryce/Trout type of deal in such a depressed economy
    Instead, the argument could be made that Correa/Baez/Seager may be better off taking $50M over 2 years
    Then they could hit the market again, in the middle of their prime, when revenues have hopefully started to rebound to pre-2020 levels

    Springer at 33 probably wouldn't do much bettter in total guarateed money than at 31 as arguably the top FA in his class
    Realmuto is a Catcher, so he should also try for as much money now as he possibly can considering the shelf life of the most physically demanding position
    Those depreciation curves do not apply to 26yo shortstops whose best years may all be ahead of him

    Cole was pre-COVID, the best SP available in FA since ... maybe Scherzer?
    He was coming off 2 consecutive seasons as the best SP in baseball (and maybe the most dominant 2yr stretch any starter has had in baseball history)

    Correa may only be the 3rd best SS available next offseason, and has never even approached that level of dominance or consistency
    The only thing they have in common is that both are Astros, former #1 overall picks, and hitting the open market in their primes
    To this point, he has mostly been a tease, tantalizing us with mostly unrealized potential we've been waiting on since 2012
    Basically he is Pirates Gerrit Cole at this point, with flashes of brilliance offset by maddening inconsistency

    He has been a playoff stud ... when healthy ... but this entire lineup has always shown up for the big moments
    Last year he really blossomed as a leader and GG-level defender, showing the complete Superstar package
    I believe in his talent, character and hope he goes on to a HoF career as an Astro lifer
    To earn his massive payday, he needs to finally validate the hype by maintaining top form for a full 162 and postseason
    He has yet to do so in 6 big league seasons


    GENERATIONAL SS FA CLASS
    Kind of insane that 5 of the best 7-8 players at the most important position were all set to hit the market simultaneously just as they enter their respective primes
    Collectively, these 5 could earn a Billion in new deals this offseason
    Has such a glut of elite talent at the same position has ever been available together before?
    2000 was a great class with ARod, Manny, etc ... but ...
    Just imagine if that class saw ARod, Nomar, Jeter, Tejada and Renteria all available together
    Crazy

    Anyways ...
    Lindor was the first domino to fall, and I couldn't be happier with how it went down
    For some reason I always saw Correa as a Met
    His idol ARod eventually found his way to the bright lights of NYC
    I'm sure Mrs Correa has been pushing the Big Apple as the best market to build their (her) brand
    I thought the hiring of his mentor Beltran was the nail in the coffin
    But now ...
    Beltran is gone and Lindor is in the fold
    Biggest threat officially off the board ... but hardly the only one


    IDENTIFYING POTENTIAL BIDDERS
    Teams that could be a match would need to meet certain criteria:
    - Payroll flexibility to add $200M
    - Positional need at SS without existing cheaper alternatives on roster or on the cusp from farm system
    - Market to offer peripheral perks, lifestyle, income, profile
    - Chance to compete now and throughout his prime years


    SMALL MARKETS, LOW PAYROLLS, NON-CONTENDERS (12)
    Let's start out easy by eliminating clubs without the financial or competitive means to be serious bidders
    CLE PIT BAL DET TB MIA SEA OAK MIL KC ARZ CIN
    It's safe to say these clubs won't even make an offer as spending $25+M on anybody would increase the team payroll by 33-100% from current levels
    Even if they did decide to open the wallet, only Tampa and Oakland have any chance at contending any time soon
    Rays always have major budget constraints, plus top overall prospect Wander knocking on the door
    Oakland couldn't afford to keep Semien, with both Matts on the horizon, so no chance they get in on the bidding
    I just don't see Correa choosing to waste his prime years losing 90+ games in an afterthought market, even if somehow his best offer came from this group


    CONTENDERS ALREADY SET AT SS (8)
    Several other clubs already have their own young 'star' SS in place for at least a couple more years
    Highly unlikely any of these teams make other moves to clear a spot for Carlos just for the privelage of paying way more money for their starting SS
    It would be stupid for anybody to move CC's glove, range and arm to 3B now, and it would take a ton of extra money to convince him to switch
    NYM - Lindor (pending extension will set the market)
    BOS - Bogaerts ($20m thru 2026)
    WAS - Turner (2 yrs from UFA)
    SD - Tatis (future MVP 5+ yrs from UFA)
    ATL - Swanson (2 yrs from UFA)
    CHW - Anderson (4 yrs from UFA)
    TOR - Bichette (future star 5+ yrs from UFA)
    MIN - Polanco (2 yrs from UFA) + Royce Lewis (top 10 prospect)


    SAME BOAT AS ASTROS (3)
    As mentioned, 3 more teams are in the exact same position as us with their own superstar SS set to hit FA:
    CHC - Baez
    LAD - Seager
    COL - Story
    I don't see either Cubs or Dodgers letting go of the guy they know for a similar talent in Correa unless the money is drastically different
    Baez is beloved, the heart & soul of Wrigleyville, and they will let Rizzo & Bryant walk before they lose their best player
    Plus I think we can all agree there is ZERO mutual interest in Correa the Dodger
    Story is most likely among this group to change teams IMO
    If they can move Arenado's contract before then, maybe that frees up enough to keep him
    Former Top 3 pick Rodgers is already in place to take over SS, but could move for Correa
    If they can't afford Story, they can't afford Correa, so moot point


    POTENTIAL SERIOUS BIDDERS (6)
    So who are the biggest threats?
    Teams with the cash to make a splash, have a serious positional need, and could see Carlos as a core piece to building a contender
    I've listed them in order from biggest threat (NYY) to smallest as I see them

    NYY
    Pros:
    Money is never an issue with limitless budget
    The biggest, most glamorous market there is
    Pinstripes and unrivaled legacy of excellence
    Will always be contending
    Cons:
    Gleybar still 4 years from FA, but team unhappy with fitness, defense, overall progression
    Potential lingering mutual dislike from scandal
    Could be hesitant to add yet another injury-prone star on big contract

    SFG
    Pros:
    SS a big need as Crawford rapidly declines and top prospect Luciano (19) still years away
    Poised to spend as they look to contend again soon after several years building up war chest
    Sleeping giant in appealing market with lots of peripheral business opportunities
    Tradition of iconic superstars, history of winning, and beautiful ballpark
    Cons:
    Rebuild still in early stages as ML roster devoid of established stars in their prime
    Same division as juggernaut Dodgers and Padres, making road back to playoffs even harder
    Have to play hated rival jerks all the time for years and hear all the trash can nonsense even more

    STL
    Pros:
    Aging core in need of new blood
    Payroll flexibility soon as old vets come off books
    Could see Correa as consolation prize if pursuit of Arenado fails
    Unrivaled environment of loyal, supportive, passionate fanbase
    Cons:
    DeJong locked in on cheap deal thru 25, but wide open at 3B and 2B if move needed
    Real championship contention could be years away as rebuild just begun
    Not exactly a glamour market

    LAA
    Pros:
    Poised to lose Simmons, leaving huge hole at SS
    Large budget and always ready to hand out huge deals to hitters (Pujols, Upton, Shohei, Rendon, Trout)
    Offer appealing major market perks, lifestyle
    Share a clubhouse with the GOAT
    Cons:
    Seem doomed to remain irrelevant non-contenders in the Trout era
    Cursed pitching staff that is always hurt or finishing second on FA bids
    Aging, injured, under-achieving core with poor farm system to supplement decline
    Better served finally spending on pitching
    Will never be Correa's team, and LA will never be Angels city

    TEX
    Pros:
    Big need at SS as Elvis gets older and less productive
    Desperate for a franchise player to build around as new face of the team
    Everybody hits in Arlington
    Zero big-money, long-term contracts on the books
    Likely to bump up payroll and contend to fill new stadium
    Cons:
    Rebuilding just starting with very little talent in place
    Farm system offers little hope for internal help anytime soon
    Have to play old friends 20 times a year
    New shade will help, but outdoor baseball in Texas still drains you in August

    PHI
    Pros:
    Desperate hole at SS with no internal options in minors
    Big east coast market with ravenous fanbase
    Large payroll with few budget constraints
    Cons:
    Despite best efforts, cannot seem to make leap to true contender status
    Stiff divisional competition from potential powerhouse Braves, existing powerhouse Nats
    Bryce Harper shadow means will never be Correa's team
    Outside of Harper, Nola, Realmuto (maybe) very shallow core of star talent
    Poor farm system offers little hope for future
     
    #107 Milos, Jan 22, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2021
  8. Milos

    Milos Member

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    If you wouldn't go there, pre-COVID and riding high off the World Series revenue bump, for the best Ace in baseball, coming off arguably the most dominant 2yr stretch by any SP in baseball history, and the best SP to reach the open market in the last decade ...

    You're going to now do it, coming off 2 years of drastically reduced revenue, for an injury-prone, inconsistent SS who has yet to put together a single MVP/superstar level season in 6 tries, and may only be the third-best SS to hit the market in the 2021 free agent class ..?

    Good luck pitching that to Jim Crane ... better update that LinkedIn profile
     
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  9. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    You wanted them to give Cole a 9 year deal?
     
  10. Milos

    Milos Member

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    I just meant crossing the $300M dollar threshold
    If they wouldn't pay George half of that after 7 far more productive and consistent seasons ...

    I love Correa, but I have a hard time rating him any higher than the 6th most valuable Astro for his cumulative contributions over our 3 year run as an elite team 2017-19

    Verlander, Cole, Bregman, Altuve, Springer were clearly more important to those teams IMO
    Then probably Correa sixth ... But even then I'm really tempted to argue for Uncle Charlie

    Seems borderline ludicrous to commit more guranteed money to Correa than we committed to pay the other 6 I mentioned COMBINED!!!

    And for 1 great season out of 7 years in the bigs?!? Which is still just a theoretical wish at this point!!! He still has not put together 1 single season as an Astro that compares to the best turned in by Yuli or Yordan
     
  11. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    He’s elite defensively at a prime position. While he hasn’t dominated a full season mostly due to the fluke injury, it’s not like he’s been completely pedestrian when healthy. And in the end, he’s only 26 years old... younger than any Astro they’ve had to make a decision like this on.

    Extending the current window is based on keeping as much of the core’s prime years together. I’d say Altuve has another 2-3 years of potential extreme high value... you want Correa and Bregman around for those. You’d also want Springer if he was willing to accept a deal for what he’s worth for his age.

    Correa is still expected to age well, regardless of the fluke injuries. And his intangibles (playoff performer, defacto vocal clubhouse leader, the ONLY Astros player who defended this team against the extreme backslash of the scandal... you could easily reason that he’s worth a 5-7 year offer with his average salary being market share).

    I also think he’s not looking for a 10 year deal. He’s young enough that they should maneuver themselves for two separate large contracts.
     
  12. Milos

    Milos Member

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    Looks like Lindor is about to set the market north of the same $300M dollar line:
    https://metsmerizedonline.com/2021/...-give-lindor-over-300-million-extension.html/


    I get that keeping the core together is important, and Correa is the youngest and most naturally gifted among the core stars in the lineup to exhaust his ARB years

    He also had a hard time cracking the top 6 in the order once Yordan and Brantley arrived in 2019, further underscoring how he is more of a part of the core than 'the straw that stirs the drink'


    It was Altuve that was our MVP in 2017 after all
    Even Tucker outperformed him last year at the plate as a rookie

    The previous season, in 2019:
    - Yordan outperformed him as a rookie
    - Brantley arrived and instantly surpassed him as a top 3 lineup fixture & our most consistent situational batter
    - Yuli crushed him with a career year in his mid 30's
    - Springer had his own career season at the plate
    - Bregman finished runner up for MVP (and probably should have won)

    Exactly how indispensable is Correa again..?


    Supply and demand drives value more than anything
    Elite pitching is far more rare and valuable than elite positional play
    Thus, if I'm handing out $300M to any core piece from this Astros team, I choose Gerrit Cole 100 times out of 100 ... and it's not even close

    There's a reason JV and Greinke are making more per season as they near 40 than Altuve, Bregman or Springer are earning in their primes

    We saw last year the dramatic falloff that resulted from losing Cole, JV, and Morton, whereas the lineup largely remained intact (minus Yordan but adding Tucker)
    Hitters get you to the postseason
    Pitchers win championships


    Correa is the least accomplished, most unreliable, and most replaceable core piece, considering we already have an MVP caliber SS locked up in Bregman

    Additionally, he will be available in the same off-season with potentially 3 equal (or better) players of the exact same age, at the same position, with comparable talent
    Even with Lindor off the market, there is really nothing in his career to date to argue he is better than Seager or Baez, and Story has a case as well
    All 4 are among his Top 10 on BaseRef's similarity score

    Cole, meanwhile, is about as irreplaceable a free agent commodity as we have seen become available since the Astros were in the NL
    Unlike Correa, there may not be a comparable talent that becomes available thru trade or FA for years to come, let alone 3 virtual clones in the same off-season

    Why? Nothing is more valuable in baseball than a true ace pitcher ... Hence why it is so rare when one of Cole's caliber ever changes hands
    Nats chose Strasburg over Rendon for the same reason
     
    #112 Milos, Jan 23, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2021
  13. Milos

    Milos Member

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    $300M players should never spend the better part of any season in their prime hitting 7th
    They are supposed to start All-Star games, rack up MVP votes, and anchor lineups
    Not get overshadowed by rookies in back to back seasons

    Also you keep referencing 'fluke injury' ...
    What is flukey about a guy getting hurt almost every single season in his early 20's for 6 years running, mostly as a result of playing baseball?
    I would define that as injury-prone

    2014 - season ended after suffering a fractured fibula during a slide

    2017 - missed 42 games after injuring a thumb ligament against a catcher's shin guard during a slide, then reinjured same thumb during playoff ALCS game 2 walkoff celebration

    2018 - missed an early April game to rest a toe he had injured with a fouloff, then later a back injury cost him 36 games on DL and greatly hurt his production when he came back

    2019 - missed 50 games from the infamous rib fracture he obtained while receiving a massage and once again greatly diminished rest of the season as a result even after he came back
     
    #113 Milos, Jan 23, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2021
  14. Astrofan59

    Astrofan59 Member

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    Not sure what stats you are looking at, but fangraphs and statcast both rate him outside the top 20 shortstops defensively. Seems to me that barely average would be a better descriptor of his defense
     
  15. homewight

    homewight Contributing Member

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    Not one GM in the Majors would take Lindor over Correa. Not one. That is why Correa will get a larger contract than Lindor. You can plug every stat there is, and that fact will not change.
     
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  16. Astrofan59

    Astrofan59 Member

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    That is absolutely not a fact. I suspect every GM would take Lindor over Correa. That is my opinion, but the stats back it up. Even so, I still hope the Astros extend Correa to a reasonable contract
     
    Milos and texans1095 like this.
  17. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Defensive metrics are fairly misleading... especially for a team that shifts as much as the Astros do.

    Correa made a huge leap last year in terms of his overall fielding. Arm/athelticism has always been elite.... he's a weapon at the position.
     
    Milos likes this.
  18. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Injured toes... injured thumbs... rib fracture during "massages" (was actually doing something else that cannot be disclosed).

    Yes, fluke injuries... like suffering back to back broken hands/wrist due to being HBP (Bagwell).

    The back was very concerning... but apparently due to improper training techniques. Seems like it held up well last year and he's young enough to strengthen areas that can prevent further structural issues going forward.

    It is slightly ironic that people don't want to pay players for past performance... but in this case you don't want to pay him because he didn't overwhelm/exceed expectations.

    I also don't think he's going to get $300 million... nor should he look for a contract that locks him in that long regardless.

    Lastly, it would not suprise anybody at any point if Correa was able to put together an MVP season... yes, a lot has to go right for that to happen, most importantly play in the majority of the games. Hell, Bagwell likely doesn't win his MVP if there wasn't a strike (as his broken wrist would have knocked him out of the rest of the season).
     
  19. Milos

    Milos Member

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    Expectations for #1 overall picks compared to Alex Rodriguez are superstardom
    Anything less is inherently dissappointing


    I do agree with you on his startling DEF improvement over the past year
    I always thought he was the best cutoff man I've ever seen as an Astro getting out so deep with huge catch radius and lightning quick relays
    Range had always been well above average
    The cannon always jumped out too
    But the way he has smoothed out his footwork, glove transfer, and sped up his release charging in ... he's elite and deserved his first Gold Glove nomination last season


    Inevitable MVP in waiting ..?
    Let's not get carried away

    I bet Vegas would be VERY surprised judging by the current odds over at Vegas Insider:
    NL
    Story +2000
    Seager +3500
    Baez +4000
    AL
    Bregman +1000
    Lindor +2000
    Cole +3000
    Springer +3000
    Yordan +3500
    Altuve +5000

    Correa's current 2021 MVP odds ..?
    Wait for it ...
    OFF THE BOARD!!!


    That's easy $$$ for you man
    Place your wager before the sharps wise up

    So ... to recap those with better MVP odds than Carlos:
    - All 4 of his 2021 SS FA competitors
    - 8 total of his fellow SS colleagues
    - 5 of his current or former Astros teammates



    For now, I'll settle for starting towards that path with baby steps:

    1st - play more than 2/3 of a full season, which hasn't happened in half a decade

    2nd - work your way into the top half of the lineup again by not allowing any more rookies to surpass you in the pecking order, which has happened 2 years in a row (and 3 of past 4 including Bregman in 2017)

    3rd - raise your OPS+ ahead of Machete again, which he failed to do last year

    4th - finish higher than 17th in the MVP vote, which has never happened
     
    #119 Milos, Jan 23, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2021
  20. Astrofan59

    Astrofan59 Member

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    Misleading stats? Not hardly. Even the stats that are not affected by shifts say he is not an elite fielder. Do you have anything that supports what you are saying, anything at all? Nothing I have ever read, seen, or heard has rated him as an elite shortstop.
     

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