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Is this the last we will see of Carlos Correa?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by what, Oct 16, 2020.

  1. what

    what Member

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    I believe the Astros are a risk reward team in terms of analytics, and I don't see any scenario where the Astros are willing to give a 10 year deal regardless of the amount.
    I don't think they would give Carlos Correa 200 million for 10 years, not because they're adversed to the 200 million but because they're adversed to a 10-year contract.
    The Astros are not going to give a 10-year contract to anybody. I'm not even sure they would give it to bregman if he asked for it.
    And Carlos Correa wants a 10-year deal he doesn't want a 5-year deal. That is the rub.
     
  2. what

    what Member

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    That's what I am saying: the length of the contract is the most important part for the Astros.
    I also believe that the Astros think pitchers are inherently more valuable than hitters and so they're willing to pay more for a pitcher than a hitter.
    But again yes the length of the contract is what allowed the Astros to sign Verlander.
     
  3. bobrek

    bobrek Person, woman, man, camera, TV
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    I'll keep asking until you prove it.... where did Correa demand a 10 year deal?
     
  4. texans1095

    texans1095 Member

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    If that truly is the rub, then the question will be whether or not Carlos would be willing to take a 7 year deal? And whether or not the Astros would be willing to do that? That would put him under contract through his age 34 season. Personally, I think I'd do it, but you could be right; maybe ownership/Click just won't be willing to do a long deal like that. I sure hope they are though.
     
  5. what

    what Member

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    He hasn't specifically demanded that, but he has been unlikely to accept deals that other players were willing to do: altuve and bregman. Both of who took 5 year deals early.
     
  6. texans1095

    texans1095 Member

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    It may be true that they value pitchers more than hitters, however, they have a core group of pitchers (Valdez, Urquidy, Javier and Paredes) all under control for at least the next 6 seasons. So I think you might be able to really take advantage of that great value you're going to have on those guys by signing Springer and Correa.

    My hypothetical is this...

    Sign Springer 5 years $140 million.
    Sign Correa 6 years $170 million.

    Springer's deal would take him through 2025 and Correa's through 2027.

    Both Bregman and Altuve are FAs after the 2024 season. And you have all three of Valdez, Urquidy and Javier under control through at least 2025 (2026 for Javier?)

    So by the time you would need to start worrying about paying Valdez, Urquidy or Javier as FAs, Springer, Altuve and Bregman's deals would all be expiring and you'd only have Correa locked in for another season or two.

    Combine that with the fact that by the end of next season, Brantley, Reddick, Greinke, Verlander, Osuna and McCullers (if they choose to let him go) will all be off the books.

    So, you re-sign Springer and Correa. You let the young pitchers ride for the next 4-5 years as the core of your starting rotation. You supplement that rotation with guys through the minors (will soon have our draft picks back) and cheap FA finds.

    If your core lineup for the next 5 seasons consists of Altuve, Bregman, Correa, Springer, Alvarez and Tucker, and your core pitchers are Javier, Valdez and Urquidy, then you're going to be competing for the playoffs (bare minimum) or a pennant every single season.

    Maybe I'm being overly optimistic or I'm completely missing something that would prove this to be financially impossible, but Springer, Altuve, Bregman and Correa have a chance to go down as one of (if not the best) foursomes of all time. And I just don't see how you can let that pass you by all in the name of saving money.
     
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  7. what

    what Member

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    At any rate, I think we should know something soon. I believe the Astros will entertain a deal to avoid arbitration with Correa. If they can't get a deal done, they will trade him. That makes this off-season really difficult. I think the Astros should definitely focus on Springer Springer Springer. And not get bogged down on Correa.
    Springer basically has forced the Astros into a longer deal, when they believed that they could knock down his value, it is only increased.
    I'm not even sure what a George Springer contract would look like if somebody offered him a deal to be honest. The guy is valuable. in my opinion I would rather have George Springer over Correa if I had to choose.
     
  8. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Contributing Member

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    I know in this age it's very rare and the Stros are very analytically driven but I would love to see Altuve, Correa and Springer retire as Stros.
     
  9. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Contributing Member

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    Even if those guys stay here an extended period of time I would hate to see a situation like with Dream playing one last season in another uniform. Or Nolan Ryan leaving here bitter and going into the HOF wearing another cap.
     
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  10. texans1095

    texans1095 Member

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    Man, I just don't know if the return for a Correa trade would be worth it. He's coming off a great postseason, but any team trading for him would surely factor in his health concerns when deciding who they'd be willing to give up. Also, if you're the team trading for him you're only getting him for one season. Unless you're like the Dodgers with Betts and you're pretty sure you can lock him up with an extension before FA. You have to factor in the 2022 SS FA class as well. If I'm a contender wanting to upgrade at SS, do I focus more on trading for Correa when I don't know if he will sign a long-term extension or do I put all my eggs in the basket of landing one of Lindor, Seager, Baez, Story or Correa next offseason?

    And from the Astros perspective, you should very well be a contender again next season. So, is it worth trading away Correa if you're not getting a young pitcher with significant club control or at least 2 top 100 prospects?
     
  11. tmacfor35

    tmacfor35 Contributing Member

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    This has to be the way.

    I would put faith in Click being able to recognize great arms like he has with the Rays.

    this core needs to be this generations Bagwell and Biggio with actual playoff success.
     
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  12. texans1095

    texans1095 Member

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    100% this. If Click had anything to do with assembling the Rays pitching staff that's full of trades/smart-but-cheap FA additions/found gems then I feel more than confident with him keeping our pitching staff competitive on a lower budget while spending majority of your money on keeping Altuve, Bregman, Correa and Springer in Astros uniforms for the next 4-5 seasons.
     
  13. DVauthrin

    DVauthrin Contributing Member

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    First, the Astros lose $165 million in payroll obligations by the start of the 2022 season. They can retain Springer, Correa and Brantley as long as Crane is willing to deal with the 2021 payroll cost. Considering how well this city supports this version of the Astros and winning teams in general, he should make the one-year sacrifice for long-term success. Also, the Astros play in the eighth-largest television market in America, so they should be able to sustain a reasonably high payroll, anyway.

    Second, it is much safer and smarter to invest in elite hitters than elite pitchers. Exhibit A: Justin Verlander is one of the top 5 pitchers in the world when healthy, and he’s going to earn $66 million over two seasons for making one start. Exhibit B: Both Max Scherzer (2019) and Clayton Kershaw (2020) had playoff starts pushed back that affected their teams. The Nationals overcame it to win the World Series, and the Dodgers fell into a 2-0 hole against the Braves because of it. Exhibit C: The Padres just traded a lot to get Mike Clevinger, and he missed their entire playoff run with arm issues. He could very well be forced to have Tommy John Surgery in the near future.

    Because of the development of Valdez, Urquidy, and Javier, the Astros already have 3/5’s of their 2021 rotation at pre-arbitration salaries. You can sign Springer, Correa and Brantley (short-term deal since he’s 33), and still have money to add pieces. If you give Springer and Correa 60 million combined in annual salary and Brantley gets somewhere around $20 million on a short-term deal, your payroll would be $122 million in 2022. That leaves plenty of room to fix other holes on the roster. Plus, Brantley would walk after the 2022 or 2023 season, depending on the contract.

    It is much more prudent and smarter to draft and develop pitching than spend big money on it in free agency. Teams always overpay for elite arms and because of the nature of the position, they suffer more significant injuries more often than position players do.
     
    #53 DVauthrin, Oct 16, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2020
  14. Mr.Pringles

    Mr.Pringles Member

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    Correa is not going anywhere and I’d be shocked after this postseason if he doesn’t receive an extension at some point.
     
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  15. Major

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    So you think they'd be OK with paying Correa $200 million over 6 or 7 or 8 years, but not over 10?

    This is dumb. That is all.
     
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  16. Major

    Major Member

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    Keep in mind that is not one person's decision. There has been talk ever since Correa came up that he intends to explore free agency and substantial talk that he wants to be a Yankee. Who knows if it's true, but we simply don't know what Correa's long term plan is. The Astros can offer him an extension, but that doesn't mean he's going to accept it.
     
  17. Mr.Pringles

    Mr.Pringles Member

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    I’d say with Altuve sticking around for awhile, drafting his brother in this years draft and this postseason, I’d be shocked if he turns down a worthy offer. Also think Crane would be far more inclined to open the checkbook.
     
  18. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

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    They have so much history here already. All three of those guys are in all time post season records already. I know money is always the primary motivating factor but they can build a serious legacy with this franchise.
     
  19. Senator

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    Too much delusion. Correa is not getting less than $300 million regardless of years. Likely closer to $350 mil due to his young age.

    Manny Machado - $300 mil/10 yr
    Mookie Betts - $350 mil/12 yr
    Bryce Harper - 13 yrs, $330 mil
    Anthony Rendon - 7 year, $245 mil (old)

    When you pay Greedlander insane amounts of cash to be injured you are sacrificing your youth and future. Incredible the Astros have come so far this year, but delusional will make pain worse later.
     
  20. htownbball

    htownbball Member

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    Has Correa put up similar numbers to those guys over the past three years? Also, the big market teams like LA and NY aren't likely to sign him due to the scandal, so that's two less teams we have to worry about. If he's healthy next season and puts up a great year, maybe he gets $30m/5 years. I don't think a team risks his injury history
     

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