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Is this the last we will see of Carlos Correa?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by what, Oct 16, 2020.

  1. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Have you been paying attention the last 3 years?

    Carlos Correa has played 243 games the last 3 years with a back problem that has come up multiple times.

    He has an OPS of under .800 the last three years.

    Unless Correa just wants to leave, the Astros can resign him at this point..... Correa would have to come out next year and hit 45 bombs to be beyond the Astros pay grade.
     
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  2. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Okay........

    #1 the Astros have offered Correa an extension at least a few times and he wanted to wait to free agency believing that he could land an A-Rod type contract. That isn't happening anymore, Correa has a chronic back condition and hasn't been so productive at the plate.

    #2 Yes, the post season performance will matter a lot to the Astros owner and fans. For all of his immaturity, he is a leader verbally and performance wise in the playoffs.

    #3 No one is paying Carlos anywhere close to 200 million dollars.
     
  3. texans1095

    texans1095 Member

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    What evidence do you have that proves your claim that they have been at odds over his contract for many years?

    EDIT: And I don't consider completely normal extension conversations that don't really pan out to be anything close to "both sides being at odds".

    From what I've always heard/read, Correa really wants to see if he can get a huge FA deal and the Astros extension offers probably haven't been that hefty. Again, while that's technically "at odds", it's not "at odds" in the same way as you're claiming.
     
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  4. what

    what Member

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    The word odds was probably the wrong word: a disagreement as to the value and length of the deal is what I meant.
    Of course they aren't shouting epitats at each other, but again: Carlos Correa believes he is worth the supermax, half a billion dollar deal.
    The Astros have not made that commitment to anybody. And I don't see that happening soon. The Astros aren't the Yankees in terms of paying players.
    But anyway, I hope he is signed to stay with the Astros, but I'm not holding my breath.
     
  5. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Well ok guy, you sound pretty sure of yourself.

    Things change. Correa’s performance has changed, the free agent market is changing, everything is always evolving. 2 years ago, it is likely Correa had visions of $250M+. That’s a very unlikely outcome for him now given the pandemic and his own inconsistency. Do I think it is likely that the Astros are able to extend/Re-sign Correa? No. But is it possible? Absolutely.

    There’s a big difference between giving Gerrit Cole $300M and giving George Springer $150M.
     
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  6. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Please tell me who is going to give a 26 year old short stop that has missed over 50 games a season with a chronic back issue, and an OPS of under ,800 the last three seasons.......... a half a billion dollars.

    I would like to know what team that is so I can become a 500K hot dog vendor.
     
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  7. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Projecting payrolls, if Houston gave Springer $150M/6yr and Correa $180M/5yr, this would be the payroll without adding any other external contracts:

    2021: $145M (doesn’t include Verlander, Osuna, or Devenski)
    2022: $145M
    2023: $160M
    2024: $170M

    Those are perfectly doable numbers but would mean Houston has very little margin for error on the pitching side. Would really need Whitley, Valdez, and Urquidy (or other prospects) to pan out into consistent ToR SP. Really no way around that risk if you’re gonna have $110M+/yr tied up in 4 hitters.
     
  8. texans1095

    texans1095 Member

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    That's fair. I think the key here is that the last couple of seasons Correa's value has take a real significant hit (IMO) due to injury and longevity concerns. You could also probably say that he's increased his value with the absolutely other-worldly postseason he's having.

    However, I think he'll be pretty disappointed if he expects to get an offer in the range of 7 years $210 million. I just don't see that happening. Especially with all the other elite SS's that are FAs in 2022. Lindor, Baez, Story, Correa and Seager are all FAs. I just don't see anyway Correa gets some sort of mega deal considering there's guys available that are roughly the same age and have better production the last 2-3 seasons due to their lack of injuries.

    All of that to say, I think the loaded SS FA class for 2022, combined with his longevity/injury concerns, could really push down his value to a point where the Astros wind up making one of/the most competitive offers for him.

    I also think there's something to be said about the way he's stepped up ever since the beginning of last season to defend the reputation of the team and has seemingly made it his personal goal to give a big F-U to all the haters with the way he's played this postseason. I don't think you take something that personal and then just jump ship the first chance you get solely because another team offers you a little more money. Now, if some team is crazy enough to give him 7+ years at 30$+ million a year then there's really nothing you can do about that. But I just don't think that happens.
     
  9. Nippystix

    Nippystix Member

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    The emergence of Framber and Urquidy (and also Javier) is huge for our economic outlook. If you can fill 60% of your starting rotation with talented and, more importantly, cheap arms, then you have the luxury of spending more/allocating more to keeping your offensive core.

    But we don't know the preference of the players. Maybe Carlos strongly prefers the Yankees (but then maybe they prefer Lindor). With so many variables, a lot can happen. But for positive speculation; maybe this playoff run is reminding Springer and Correa how fun it is to play with this group. And if the money is close, why not stick with the team you know (and no state income taxes!!), and continue to have fun with Altuve and Bregman, who we have locked down, supplemented by talented youngsters Kyle Tucker and Yordan.
     
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  10. texans1095

    texans1095 Member

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    You know, I think a 5 year deal could make a ton of sense for Correa. It gives him the chance to prove he can stay healthy, still gets 30$ million/year during the life of the contract, and would be hitting FA again in his age 32 season with a chance at another sizable contract given he's stayed relatively healthy up to that point.

    Now, if some team is willing to give him a deal for 7+ years and $30+ million/year then I don't know why he wouldn't take that contract. But I don't see that happening especially given the other elite SS's available next offseason.
     
  11. what

    what Member

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    His free agency is not this off-season, it is next off-season, plenty of time to secure that 10 year $350 million dollar deal.
    The Astros won't pay that even if he comes out and hits 50 homers and .300 ba
     
  12. cmlmel77

    cmlmel77 Member
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    Neither will anyone else.
     
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  13. what

    what Member

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    The point is that this is why he has not signed a longer term deal with the Astros, because he is looking for that kind of deal.
    He wants a 10 year deal, not a 5 year deal. The Astros don't do that. For anyone.
     
  14. TWS1986

    TWS1986 SPX '05, UH' 19
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    Stop posting.
     
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  15. bobrek

    bobrek Person, woman, man, camera, TV
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    How do you know that for a fact?
     
  16. what

    what Member

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    Because they signed bregman for $100 million, they signed altuve for $152 million. The Astros are not in the habit of not signing their stars.
    The point is that out all the players the Astros have had, once that price tag gets too high they are gone.
    It ought to be sobering to you to understand that out of all the great players the Astros have had they've only signed two key players of that: altuve and bregman and both took smaller deals than usual.
    I don't see any evidence where the Astros are looking to have a bunch of 28 29 30 million dollar players on their roster.
    They took the lesser of the two deals between Gerrit Cole and Zack greinke.
     
  17. bobrek

    bobrek Person, woman, man, camera, TV
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    They didn't keep Bagwell and Biggio? Which of the current core of players that the Astros developed have they lost?

    Again....who said Correa wants a 10 year deal? You're speculating. If he really wants to bet on himself, he takes a 4 year deal and then becomes a 30 year old free agent.
     
  18. what

    what Member

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    They still have to avoid arbitration with Carlos, not to mention Lance McCullers, not to mention Brantley, and the Springer extension.
     
  19. texans1095

    texans1095 Member

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    Yes, I realize that he's a FA next offseason not this upcoming one.

    I just don't think it's remotely possible he gets that big of a deal. That would be literally be the largest FA deal in baseball history (Trout's was technically an extension and that was 10 year $360 million). There's just literally no way that Carlos gets that kind of money. He could go out next season and hit .300, 50 HR and 120 RBI and I still don't think he'd get that deal purely because the back injury questions/concerns will always linger.

    Bottom line, all I'm saying is that maybe he expects some sort of Trout/Harper/Betts deal, but that's simply just not going to happen.
     
  20. texans1095

    texans1095 Member

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    The Astros literally extended JV for 2 years at $30 million/year. Sure, it was a short contract, but if JV had been 10 years younger I see no reason why Crane wouldn't have been willing to give him a 7+ year deal at that rate.
     

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