NBA should just use the lotto prediction draft - picks and players stay the same, and all trades can happen post draft would never happen because $$$$$
But has it been 4? Cavs odds for Kyrie was 2.8%. New Orleans odds for AD were 13.5%, not that long of shot. In this years draft the best odds were 14%. Pelicans odds on Zion were 6%. Again, not incredible odds. In the current draft, 6% is the odds for the 8th worst record. Mavs odd for Flag was 1.7 or 1.8 I believe. So, in the cases that you cited, it's really only two really long odds winning. Each year, there's a 35% chance that the lottery winner will have less than 10% odds. At the bottom of this article, there a list of all lottery winners and their odds since 1985 when the lottery began. https://www.nba.com/news/nba-draft-lottery-explainer
I think this lottery approach has run its course, and outcomes like 2025 just solidify it's time to revert back to worse team gets best pick. The lottery was supposed to discourage teams from tanking, but has it really? Teams are still vying for best odds, but unfortunately they can get screwed with outcomes like this. NFL and MLB follow the old way, and I think its time to kill the lottery concept.
I actually agree, it must suck to be one of the fans of the bottom teams this year and see mostly decent teams get all the best picks in a stacked draft which could've been a lifeline for all 3 actual bottom teams. If the league wants to keep the crappy teams competitive they need to make it clear that load management/fake injuries or the bullshit we did with John Wall where we paid him a max contract and didn't play him is against the rules. The whole point of a salary cap is to make the league competitive, you can't sit 25% of your salary and it still serve that purpose. To be honest though, it really should self regulate after a while because the bottom teams will cycle more as they get their star and then move up the table (you know, how it's supposed to work anyway lol.)
At the very least I think they need to remove the play-in teams from the lottery. Maybe have those just slot in after the lottery in record order or something. It's ridiculous which teams got the top picks.
It was big time rigged during the Stern era. I don’t think much has changed other than the 2nd apron rules are making it more difficult for the league to create super teams on the coast. If the Lakers falter even with the Doncic rig, look for the next bargaining agreement to get rid of the 2nd apron rules.
Draft order based on one season's records encourage tanking and sometimes it gifts a good team whose star player got injured a very high pick (e.g. 2020 Warriors got #2--although they picked a bust). In basketball, one player can change a team's fortune. One way that has been suggested is to base draft order on multiple years' records, say 5 years. That way, you eliminate good team's injury tanking. If you really want to tank, you have to suffer long enough to get a top pick. It helps rebuilding team without incentivizing intentional losing.
It’s not that they like it, it’s that they don’t care. They will keep rigging it for certain teams for as long as those certain teams increase the bottom line for all teams, which is forever.
They are Jefferson's words not mine lol I would rather think it is rigged than a bunch of old heads getting off at viewers being mad.
Has anyone proposed a plausible mechanism of how the NBA would rig the lottery? The lotto ball drawing procedure seems fairly tamper resistant to me and I can't think of a way that it could be influenced without needing many parties to agree to rig it, even those who have opposing incentives. The NBA would have to bring in all of the media that's there, all the team reps, Ernest and Young, and Smart Play (lotto machine maker) into the fold. Hundreds of people across decades would need be in the conspiracy. That just seems way too difficult and way too much risk for what is small benefit in the grand scheme of things. I think it's similar to the idea that the moon landing is faked. At some point, the cover up becomes more improbable than just the improbable events happening.
