Well look at how much his "close" range has dropped: 03-04: 23% of his shots; .507 02-03: 33% of his shots; .543 He's shooting less close range shots, and making less of them. Here's how it translates: 02-03 - 5.4 "close" shots - 5.86 points a game 03-04 - 3.3 "close shots - 3.38 points a game
That's why he is best close to the basket which means he cannot play the role of Michael Doleac or Brad Miller. Dragging him out to the high post is a gamble. He can make the occasional jumpshot, but he has acclimated himself too well with the hook shot. That hook shot is money.
In the slowdown half-court offense, defenses are much tougher to penetrate against. The layups are harder to get.
Here's something to think about since it happens so often. Let's say the opposing defense is fronting Yao with a quick defender. The weakside defender who is probably the power forward is cheating in and out into the paint area to guard against the lob pass. Not only is the power forward cheating into the paint. The point guard is playing way off Steve in order to provide even more help for the paint defense. Yao does not have the ball yet. JJ wants to pass to Yao. JJ is on the strongside beyond the arc with a guy right in his face, so he can't just shoot the 3 easily. There's no way in hell Yao gets the ball without a large chance of a turnover here. The ball gets passed around the arc to Cuttino which attracts the closest defender. Then Cuttino swings it over to Steve in the weakside corner. The point guard is being told to give Steve the jumpshot, so he basically stays on the edge of the paint area to provide help against dribble penetration. There's no way Steve can drive into the paint without creating an offensive foul. He can shoot the ball at that point from beyond the arc, or he can try to dribble in closer for a mid-range shot. The 2nd option means the defense can rotate back to Steve easier. In both cases, Steve needs to shoot a jumpshot. This is why a guy like Kenny Smith who can shoot that 3 upon catching the pass is a necessity for this offense. How many times has Steve passed up the wide open 3 attempt in order to drive into the paint and the teeth of the defense? Refs don't give calls with Steve jumping into a defender in the paint.
It's not the system, it's the fact that Francis' game doesn't complement Yao's. Unless, you're advocating pulling Yao out to the perimeter on a consistent basis, what do you suggest that we do? The problem is that the defenses designed to stop Yao, are also very effective against Francis. Why wouldn't every team just pack it in and force the Rockets to beat them over the top? Ideally, Francis' game would complement Yao, so that if teams adjusted their defenses to stop Yao, Francis would make them pay. To me that's the whole reason that we'll trade Francis. It's not about how good or bad he is, it's just that his game doesn't complement Yao's very well. If that is true, then I think that we'll utimately have to make a choice between Francis and Yao...and that's a no brainer.
It will be money when Yao shoots hook consistently. On the other hand, I am panicking a bit: Will Steve please find his shooting touch? Last year he looked brilliant in the 44-pt game vs Lakers . But this year he has not even been able to do half of that. I have no doubt about his heart & determination, I really hope he digs himself out, SOON.
What hook shot are you looking at? You must mean the linedrive hook shot of Cato. Yao has a shooting percentage greater than 53%. You're expecting him to shoot 60%? I don't know what his shooting percentage is the past 20 games or so, but it's gotta be 60% or above anyway. Steve's shooting touch is not based off the catch and shoot. It's the dribble, create and then launch a shot. I suggest you count the number of times Steve makes a shot in the next game without taking a single dribble.
I agree that Yao has a very sweet looking hook shot. Except when he's shooting them on the right edge near the baseline, where he doesn't have any backboard. He never seems to make those. But his hook shot in the lane is absolutely money.
This is what I don't get. I agree with you on most everything else you said. But, Francis' game not complementing Yao's seems to me like a systemic problem. The dichotomy being drawn this season on why Francis' shooting is down is either (1) he has become less accurate or (2) he's forced to play in a system that makes him take low-percentage shots. These stats would indicate the latter. (Btw -- and this is tangental to the thread -- I don't think it is necessarily impossible to design an offensive set that can make both Francis and Yao a threat. Obviously, Van Gundy hasn't successfully done it, and likely Francis will be forced out because of it.)
Steve Francis is best fit with a big man like Kenyon Martin. That's why he does all those alley-oops to Cato. He's trying to emulate Jason Kidd. Yao is best with a guard like Bibby who can shoot lights out when he catches it on the perimeter.
I believe the only way Francis can be an offensive threat is to pull Yao out to the high post, opening up the lane for him to drive, or threaten to drive. A high PnR should work. However, if Yao is at the high post, I want him to be the passer, not Francis. That will make the other teammates a threat too. Unfortunately, Francis doesn't seem to be a good cut and catch kind of guy (I could be wrong here). I remember one time (in the Lakers game, I think) Yao made a great hook pass to Francis under the basket. That should have been an easy basket but Francis blew the layup. It seems to me that Francis has to score off the dribble.
Yao in the high post is just a failed play. Yao is so much more effective down low that it doesn't make sense to appease Steve by pulling Yao out into the high post. When Yao is in the game, he needs to get the ball in the low post or at least have the defensive attention focused on him in the low post to create opportunities for the outside shooters. When Yao goes out of the game, Steve can do whatever the heck he wants.
Actually SF3 is a good shooter, he shoots better than Kobe, Carmelo and Lebron (all abt 36% for jumpers). Ming is also a good shooter. Peja shoots 53% jumpers and he shoots 51%. That's pretty good in my book.
