Is Shane Battier one of the best role players ever?

Dan Rosenbaum, who now works for the Cavs, I believe, has an "adjusted +/-" which goes some way to separate out who else is on the court with the player. Battier came out really well over a 2-3 year period under the last
+/- study he released, IIRC.

There are always variables you cannot account for completely, but the numbers over multiple seasons with multiple teammates and coaches would seem to mean something.

His +/- now can be a coincidence, but if you look at the big picture over the years, either you have to conclude Battier is one very lucky b*stard or admit his play makes an impact. Luck is a factor, who he plays against is a factor but it's exceedingly unlikely that good luck lasts season after season and he only plays with good defensive players agaisnt bad offensive players year after year.

Besides, if you look at the game tape seriously for defensive activity (as durvasa apprarenly has, and tracked the first 5 games), you'd see his impact as well. He stops more easy baskets every game than any other Rockets, as far as I can see, and creates extra possession for the team all the time.

 

How many role players who play primarily SG/SF on defense are averaging 8 rebounds a game?

If Battier gave us 14/8 in addition to what he's currently giving us, awesome. He'll eventually starting scoring more as he gets out of his shooting slump, and I guarantee he'll be getting at least 5 RPG by the end of the season if those stats are worrying you so much. But as is, despite the limitations in his game, he's playing a significant and positive role on the team.

 

The example you give would mean that the opposing team should play worse on offense when Battier is resting. The opposite has happened. The opposition has played far better offensively with Battier off the court than when Battier is on the court. The reasonable explanation for that is our team defense isn't as good when Battier is resting.

 

With all due respect, how can you guarantee that? Just curious.

 

Not many, but I was thinking more along the lines of a Gay/Swift combination. Which really is the point here. We traded Battier to play the 4. I don't think 14/8 is exceedingly demanding for a "good" role player 4, especially since some people are labelling him the among the greatest ever.

You are right. It was merely an example to show contention. There are thousands of factors that affect a player's performance, including but not limited to who they play with, who they play against, where they are playing (home/away etc). For all we know, the lighting in the arenas could affect performance because it is too bright/not bright enough.

So the problem with such event studies is that, you really can't draw any decent conclusion from them without relying on a lot of faith.

Which, once again, is why event studies are dead... at least in the financial world.

 

How does lighting in arenas change when Battier is on the floor? You are just making up **** here.

 

You are right. He did give a wrong example. But he does have a valid point nontheless, i.e. there're too many unknown variables in the +/- analysis.

For example, it could just be that Battier's replacement (be it Snyder or whoever) is too bad a defender compared to him. But that doesn't necessarily mean he's that great.

 

Nit picking are we?

 

Perhaps a "guarantee" was a bit overzealous of me.

Battier will average at least 35 MPG by the end of the season. These are the per 35 minute rebounding averages for Battier throughout his career, including the current season

Code:

        reb/35
01/02   4.7
02/03   5.1
03/04   5.4
04/05   5.7
05/06   5.3
06/07   3.6

I expect his rebounding numbers will eventually converge to his career average.

 

He's not even the best role player on his own team; Chuck Hayes and Luther Head have both been better than him this season.

And is it just me or does anyone else sense a hint of sarcasm from the thread starter?

 

So, offer a reasonable alternative explanation for Battier's impact on the game over the last several years.

Shouldn't be that hard to find one since there are "thousands" of them.

There are plenty of possible causes, but the simplest and most obvioius one-- for those of us who watched the games carefully at least--- is that Battier makes a lot more good plays than most other players.

These are very tangible numbers, the fact that your fantasy league doesn't track them is irrelevant.

 

I agree. Hayes is a better player than Battier, period. I guess we could call Chuck a role player too so that makes him our best role player. He plays very good pick and roll defense, he is constantly moving and finding the open spot on offense, he sets good picks, he has really good hands, and he's physical.

Even though Head plays less minutes than Battier, he probably has just as big of a role on the team too. He plays the point sometimes, he hustles all over the place, and most importantly he takes and makes big big shots.

Battier, well....He plays a lot of minutes and chases the other teams best player around, he takes charges and he goes after lose balls. Sounds to me like Hayes and Head are better role players.

 

But he's not playing the 4. He's playing mostly SF, and on a lot of night he's defending guards. It's unfair to expect him to rebound like a big when he's primarily playing on the perimeter both on offense and defense.

I think it requires more faith to think it's just a fluke, when Battier's On/Off impact on defense has been consistently very good the last 3 years. And that's as a starter, when he's facing better offensive lineups than his replacements.

As I've noted elsewhere, I was tracking detailed defensive stats for all the Rockets for the first 5 games of the season. Battier defended against more misses than any other player, by far. He also forced more turnovers than anyone else, via the combination of steals and drawn charges. And that doesn't even cover his energetic defensive rotations that force extra passes and more difficult shots.

Not sure how you are defining "event study". There are external factors that can impact any statistic, including PPG and RPG. For plus/minus type stats, the relevant factors are teammates, opponents faced, and total minutes played. Arena lighting would not have any significant impact; not sure if you were being serious with that example or not.

 

Luther Head is not a better player than Shane Battier. How can anyone say that? Luther Head has one good skill -- he shoots threes very well. That's it. Everything else is average or below average for his position. Battier's contributions are multi-faceted.

 

the problem with the hayes argument is he can't stay in games because he fouls too much. if he had the ability to play 35 min then I would agree, but he can't so it's a moot point.

I think the thing that sucks watching hayes now is that a lot of his fouls are stupid fouls like yao would commit earlier in his career. hopefully, he will clean it up by the end of the year.

 

The +/- method measures the effectiveness of different lineups against different lineups. It doesn't measure individual effectiveness, unless certain rare conditions are met to isolate individual factors. For example, if Shane plays 40 games, retires and another player steps in his shoes, plays 40 games in the same exact substitution pattern, then the +/- method is a good indicator of how much better Shane is than his substitute defensively. Still, even so it doesn't reflect his defensive impact, case in point, even if JHo is better than Novak defensively, it doesn't mean JHo is a good defender.

A lineup with Shane Battier being better defensively than a lineup without Shane Battier does not mean much. A Battier lineup can look better than a no Battier lineup in various situations:

1. A Battier lineup is better than the related opponent lineups by 5%, while a no Battier lineup is equal to level of the related opponent lineups.

Result, a Battier lineup allows less points per 100 possessions.

2. A Battier lineup is equal to the level of related opponent lineups, while a no Battier lineup is worse than the related opponent lineups by 5%.

Result, a Battier lineup allows less points per 100 possessions.

3. A Battier lineup is worse than the related opponent lineups by 5%, while a no Battier lineup is worse than the related opponent lineups by 10%.

Result, a Battier lineup allows less points per 100 possessions.

Conclusion, even if Battier's defense makes his lineup worse defensively by 2%, his lineup still looks better than a lineup without him.

Conclusion, the +/- method doesn't relfect the effectiveness of a player unless that player and his substitute is interchanged in a set lineup over a good sample size of games.

My question still isn't answered, Shane Battier having marginal impact on defense is not to be dispelled by irrelevant statistical method like the +/- ratings. The Rockets are a top defensive team with or without Shane Battier. That's a fact, not some weird numbers that indirectly reflects things under misintepretation. That's why Shane's defensive impact is only marginal.

Shane Battier having good +/- numbers only means he's suitable for that method. If we use the elimination method then the Greek team is better than the USA team. If we use +/- numbers Shane looks better and Yao looks worse. It's just manipulation of stats when the conclusion is based on misintepretation.

If one wants to brag about Battier creating extra possessions, plz tell us the method and data on which the number is based. How many possessions does he create a game and how much better it is than the average.

 

How about doing the same thing to Ryan Bowen if you have the time, to set a benchmark. Thanks.

 

Sorry, that result does not follow for any of those scenarios. The argument for Battier isn't simply that the team does better with him on the court, and does worse with him off the court. You could say that about a lot of players. Battier plays roughly the same number of minutes as the McGrady and Yao, and yet he has a much better raw On/Off +/- rating than either of them. And the last three years, he's always been one of the best on his team in that category. This goes beyond fluke due to the rotations.

In fact, Rosenbaum calculated Adjusted Defensive +/- (which took into account teammates and opponents faced using a regression technique). He used multiple seasons for his sample.

http://danrosenbaum.blogspot.com/2005/08/defense-on-perimeter-what-do-adjusted.html

Based on that, Battier rated as the best SF defensively. This study was done in the Summer of 2005.

And that you'd just dismiss Battier's activity on the defensive end by comparing him to Ryan Bowen indicates a real disconnect here. If you the difference between the two isn't obvious to you, I'd suggest that you be a little more observant. Jerry Colangelo, a guy who knows a thing or two about NBA personnel, didn't pick Battier to be on Team USA for nothing.

 

Pippen is the best role player ever.

That mofo is not a star, he is only a role player.

 

I take Raja Bell anyday over Shane Battier.

Look at Battier's on/off offense number: on/106.5 off/106.9. Battier's on/off defense numbers are: on/100.1 off/109.2. My translation: Battier has no impact on offense. His team is waiting to be beaten.

I couldnt even recall Battier's scoring average in playoff. I think Dennis Rodman must average more pts than Battier in the playoffs. Counting rebounds and defense, I can come up with this equation:

Shane Battier = 1/3 Dennis Rodman.