If you don't think it's easier for a 7-2, 270 lb behemoth to post up a 6-7 210 lb guy wearing Chuck Taylors who thinks that dunking is rude, than it is to post up even a distincly average modern center like Rik Smits (with Dale and Antonio Davis coming from the weak side rather than a 6-5 190 lb power forward), you're kidding yourself and living in la-la land, not even considering the drastic expansion of the talent pool. So we have intutive evidence, we have empirical evidence, I don't really know what else there is to go by, other than your first hand knowledge of Wayne Embry as a dominating center.
the one thing about wilt though is that I think he would definitely be dominant in today's game more than any other player from nba's past. the dude ran track in college. that's right, a 7'2" giant was a track star also. he was just a freakish athlete and I don't think comparing him and shaq does him any justice. I really don't think he was shaq like, he was probably a lot more fluid, and graceful, a natural athlete who just happened to be one of the biggest guys ever to come through the nba.
The size disparity wasn't THAT big. Earlier in his career, Wilt was pretty lean. He came into the league weighing only 250-ish. If you look at photos, Wilt really didn't become a 280-pound gigantic mass of muscle until he started wearing a Lakers jersey. Wayne Embry was a stocky fellow at 6'8", 240. I'd say the average center in Wilt's era was about 6'9" and 220-230 lbs. Power forwards weren't quite as small as you're making out either. Wilt vs. his average contemporary was comparable to Tim Duncan posting up on players like Kenyon Martin, Donyell Marshall, Stromile Swift, or Shawn Marion. Sure, it's easy...but it's not as if Wilt was playing with a bunch of guys half his size.
Wayne Embry was by far the biggest player that Wilt had to contend with. I've already posted this, but these are the starting Centers of 1962 aside from Russell and Wilt: Wayne Embry CIN 6-8 240 Red Kerr SYR 6-8 230 Phil Jordon NYK 6-10 205 (though it should be noted that backup C Darrall Imhoff, a mediocre player, but big for his day at 6-10 220, was the man who tried to cover Wilt in Hershey) Clyde Lovellete StL 6-9 230 Bob Ferry Det 6-8 230 Jim Krebs MIN 6-8 230 Walt Bellamy Chi 6-11 230[/quote] Please recall, these are starting centers, not back-ups called to deal with Wilt when the starting C is in foul trouble like Shawn Marion. I'm not going to do the math, but if you think these guys (remember, who represented the cream of the crop) are more difficult to go against than even average centers like Brandon Haywood, especially for a center who relied on his inside play like Chamberlain, I don't think it's tenable. More importantly, I think Hakeem, Tim Duncan, David Robinson, et al would not have dominated these guys and put up similarly ferocious numbers (30-40 points, 20 rebounds). Would they have gotten close to 50? Possibly, had their team essentially sold out and gone to them every possession - but let's remember that the 1962 Warriors weren't exactly the greatest team of all time. Power forwards of that era (who also served as backup C's) were midgets and beanpoles compared to players today, btw: e.g., Tommy Heinsohn (6-6, 215) Dave Gambee (6-6 215), Willie Knauls (6-6 220), Rudy LaRusso (6-7 220), Jack Twyman (6-6 210) Ray Scott (6-9, 215) Bob Petit (6-9, 205) Andy Johnson (6-5 215) (notice, not only are a lot of these guys small, but none of them are particularly good either with the exception of Petit. The athletic, superstar PF is largely a creation of the modern era. Yes I know that Twyman and Heinsohn were good players in their day, but they are not similar to players today) So, with the differential, Wilt on his counterparts is not like Shaq going up against Stromile Swift. It's more like him going up against Juwan Howard, with somebody of Ryan Bowen's size in reserve. Basketball was in the middle of a serious transition then, and Wilt was a player ahead of his time, physically, from his counterparts. Dealing with a front line of Jack Twyman and Wayne Embry represents a much easier task, physically, then dealing with Elton Brand and Chris Kaman.
But consider Shaq put up 30PPG-14RPG-3BPG. Even DR, who noone consideres the best center of his generation, put up 30-11-3.3. I bring these guys up because they are the best athletes I can think of 7+ in the modern era (in terms of combinations of strength, explosiveness, quickness, coordination). They also had rules and refing style more favorable to them than what Wilt got. You are right Shaq isn't the athlete Wilt was--this is the point I wanted to make. Wilt was probably as naturally strong (though didn't benefit from modern nuitrition and weight lifting regimines or he would have been well over 300 like Shaq), but was a more explosive and gracefull athlete. Wilt was a lot stronger however than Robinson--certainly in his legs through torso, and had a much better post up game. So if Shaq and DR did as well as they did in the modern era (see stats line above, both are MVPs, Shaq is a top 10 player of all time, DR is a top 25)-- and they happen to be the best natural athletes over 7 foot I can think of in the modern era, yet they still pale to Wilt, does anyone still not think Wilt would dominate today?
....rules and reffing style...and a playing style that featured far less possessions, and lot more physical defense. Put them in Wilt's era and I don't see how they are not dragging down 40-20. Who was going to stop them? Bob Petit?
You realize that both Stromile Swift and Juwan Howard are 6'9" and 230 pounds right? Wouldn't you agree that their sizes would be comparable to the sizes of the average center in 1962? Couple that fact with a leaner 1962 Wilt Chamberlain who was 7'1" and around 260-265 lbs. That's roughly Tim Duncan-sized (7'0 and 260). I don't see why you think my analogy of "Tim Duncan vs. Stromile Swift" is a bad one. No, I don't think posting up the likes of Wayne Embry is easier than going up against the average center today. However, I still stand by my argument that while Wilt was significantly bigger than all his contemporaries, the size differential wasn't quite as big as most people seem to think.
Shaq playing in an up and down league? He couldn't dunk on half of his baskets either since players would rather put you on your ass then have you dunk on them. Robinson would have been a beast, although not as impressive looking physically and still weak mentally, but Shaq would have had to change his body, workout habits, and game. Good luck with that.
Juwan Howard has not been 230 since college. I've seen him listed at 240 but woudl guess that he was 250. (if you are going by the official NBA.com weight, Shaq is listed at 325....he hasn't been 325 since Orlando). I also think that 6-9 is a stretch. He looked an inch or two shorther than Swift, who I have seen listed at 6-10, 220. Of course, as I noted, neither of these guys plays C as a primary role. Anwyay, who cares? Howard is a terrible defensive player, and a mismatch for a skilled 7-foot center, let alone an HOF caliber one. If you're trying to tell me that Chamberlain got to go against a bunch of Juwan Howards, then I don't see how that helps augment his legacy much. ....because Stromile Swift is about 5 inches and 10-15 lbs bigger than the PF's of Wilt's day? Then you're wrong. That's one of the reasons why people scored so much back then, including Wayne Embry.
So then shaq would have adjusted to the times and layed the ball in rather than dunked....he still would present tremendous mismatches to the players of the day, as would Robinson or any of the great big men. SImilarly, Wilt would have to adjust to the much more physical way the game is played today
But let's take the reverse argument, nobody was stopping Shaq and DR (even Hakeem in his prime didn't stop him, but he did outscore/outplay them, particularly DR). They had seasons of 30PPG, 11-13RBG, 3+ blocks. The have MVPs recognizing them as the most outstanding players. Heck Ben Wallace and Rodman, but well under 240, have put up 15+RPG seasons. I really don't think 35-40PPG, 15-18RPG, and 3-5BPG is that off the wall projection for Wilt had he played during the late 80s-90s (with modern training of course as Shaq and DR benefited from). And lines like that, even if not 50 & 25, would show he is the best player of this era too, more impressive and dominant by a wide margin than any of Jordan's. Heck Kareem in 72 (when there were plenty of good bigmen) had a 35-17-5 (and probably 5 blocks) season and he put up 28-17-5-4 in 76 when he hit 30 and was starting his downside of his career (someone should not bring up well Moses and Hakeem were better than Kareem because of their playoff match-ups, that is saying Shaq is lightyears better than Hakeem because of his domination the last time they met when Hakeem was like 35). I am pretty confident a Wilt or Kareem in his prime would have torn everyone up in the late 80s and 90s, and Wilts lines would be the best of that time--substantially ahead of Shaq, DR and even Hakeem (with the exception of steals, no bigman stole the ball like Hakeem).
And Wilt would adjust too... Flagrant fouls today were touch fouls back then. Players shot so many jump shots because they would get hurt inside. Just compare his late years to Kareem's early years... He beats him in everything but PPG. Kareem went on to dominate all centers after he retired against tons of great centers but he couldn't dominate an old Wilt.
I know that players back in the old days like to brag about how tough they were and how they had a code -- but from what I've watched, there was not as much contact inside away from the ball,, a lot less hacking, leaning, hand checking and a lot less contesting of baskets once you were in inferior position.
I think it's futile to try to guess how much more or less effective a player would be if he was playing in one era versus another. Just way too many factors to consider. The best approach in making these cross-era comparisons, in my opinion, is to compare how great they each were relative to their own league. That's essentialy the basis of my adjusted stats. While I started that post questioning what numbers Wilt might have gotten if he played in modern times, I think now that I mispoke. It isn't so much about projecting what one player would do if he played in another time period, but rather putting both players on an equal playing field to better compare how they dominated their respective leagues. When I do this, Wilt and Shaq dominated their respective eras to roughly the same degree. If Wilt was born in 1970 and played at the same time as Shaq, would he have been better? Who knows. We can theorize about it, but I don't think there's any strong evidence either way because there's just too many unknowns.
I can't go by that... Wilt and Kareem played 4 seasons together and an old Wilt played as well or better than he did in every statistical category but PPG. Kareem went on to dominate the rest of the 70s centers but couldn't dominate Wilt. The 70s had tons of great centers too from beginning to end. So I think that Wilt would have played above and beyond his competition in any era he was in and I assume most great 60s players would have done the same.
unless the 60's were just way different than the 80s, which is when most ESPN classic games are from, there wasn't even close to the physical play inside. you went to the block, got your position, and made your moves. now a guy like yao takes a few kidney shots every time he feels like posting up. and that's also true about the inferior position thing. even a good free throw shooter like yao is likely to get hacked and go to the line as opposed to what you see back in the old games. even the little black and white tape of wilt shows much more passive defenders but there is so little it's hard to judge. one big thing i think people are understating is double teams. they just weren't a part of basketball until somewhat recently. both based on every game they show before the 90's and in things you read from people who have followed basketball throughout its history. if hakeem and shaq even thought about being able to score 40 points per game they'd never get a shot off b/c the doubles would be coming so fast and the other team would be begging someone else to beat them. as we all know and talk about on here, think what yao would do just without zones. now think what he would do without double teams. it's hard to penalize wilt for being bigger and stronger than everyone because that's what sports is all about - bigger, faster, stronger. but you always have to take into account the development of a league. virtually every pro sport out there is more developed now than it used to be. baseball probably came along quickest, but back in ruth's day he was outhomering whole teams. should we hold others to the same standards? of course not, you'd have to hit 150 homers or so to outhomer a few teams each year. same with wilt, i'm sure there were some nice players, but the talent pool is just so much deeper, everyone works out (so wilt being such a physical specimen versus a bunch of non-weight training, non-year round staying in shape, smoking during games (i'm looking at you bob piettit) type people wouldn't be the advantage it was back then). could wilt still possibly have the best numbers of this era as well? i suppose so. he might very well edge out hakeem and shaq. but if he beat them, it would be what i just said, edging them out. 37/17/5 type seasons like Desert Scar is predicting just aren't feasible today. maybe if wilt had a great shooting touch to go with his physical abilities, but he didn't. he flipped shots up from 4 feet like shaq and if they missed he grabbed rebounds over the smaller guys. his terrible ft% is very shaqlike. i just don't see someone with pretty much shaq's skillset being anymore than just a hair more physically dominant. shaq was in tremendous shape in his mpv year, just a wall of muscle, playing about 40 mpg, and he still topped out at 30/13 and then 30/15 in the playoffs. 37/17 just isn't happening.
I agree it is very speculative, fun, but speculative. That said Shaq and DR did have MVP seasons, and some pretty good lines 30PPG 11-13RPG 3+BPG in the modern era of big men. So it is clear oustanding big men could still dominate and excell among a league of taller/stronger bigmen. I agree this is the best way. I just don't see how you can come to your conclusions. The margin from Wilt to the next scoring leaders was far more than Jordans to his (I showed this early). And the everyone else in Wilt's case included Baylor, Petit, Oscar and Balamy, versus guys like Wilkens, Gervin, English, Dantley and King (all 30+PPG scorers around Jordans time). I agree rebounds were probably more inflated than PPG from the 60s to 80s, but only Russell was in the same ballpark as Wilt, showing a major gap from the next players. Blocks we don't have record of, but likely Wilt and Russell lead by a wide margin from everyone else there as well.
What "statistical categories" are you talking about, exactly? Based on basketball-reference.com's PER estimates, this is how they compared in those 4 seasons: Code: Wilt Kareem MP PER MP PER 1970 505 24.8 3534 22.5 1971 3630 20.3 3288 29.0 1972 3469 18.6 3583 29.9 1973 3542 19.1 3253 28.5 Wilt was a better rebounder, the assists (per minute) was a wash, and Wilt was a more efficient scorer in 72 and 73. At the same time, in 71, 72, and 73 Kareem was scoring at nearly twice the rate Wilt was. Since PER is already adjusted to league average by definition, we can also compare their PER in their first four seasons: Code: Kareem Wilt MP PER MP PER 3534 22.5 3338 28.1 3288 29.0 3773 27.8 3583 29.9 3882 32.1 3253 28.5 3806 31.8 Wilt dominated the league to a greater extent in the first half of his career than Kareem. But it was comparable. And what if we compare their respective 11th, 12th, 13th, and 14th seasons: Code: Wilt Kareem MP PER MP PER 505 24.8 3143 25.3 3630 20.3 2976 25.5 3469 18.6 2677 23.4 3542 19.1 2554 23.6 Now, Kareem has an edge based on PER (per possession productivity). Wilt did play significantly more minutes, however, so their effective value to their teams might have been the same.
