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Is Marwin Gonzalez for real, and if so, should we give him a bunch of money?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by torque, May 31, 2017.

  1. torque

    torque Contributing Member
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    Marwin's obviously been the biggest surprise on offense this season. He's also playing every day now, and continuing to rake. There was a fangraphs article a couple days ago trying to answer this question, and the answer was basically "kind of, mostly." What say y'all?

    Also, he's [EDIT: NOT] a free agent this offseason. I think somebody is going to give him a lot of money, even if he doesn't quite keep up this pace. Should that somebody be the Astros?
     
    #1 torque, May 31, 2017
    Last edited: May 31, 2017
  2. Rowdy4Life

    Rowdy4Life Member

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    I may be able to spare a few dollars but not until Friday when I get paid
     
  3. rocketpower2

    rocketpower2 Member

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    Marwin isn't a FA until after '18. Astros have him for $5MM next season.
     
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  4. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    Astros have a $5,000,000+ club option for 2018.
     
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  5. mightybosstone

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    It's still too small of a sample size to answer that question. If I have to answer the question right now, I'd probably say "probably not" and "no thanks." But the front office has until the end of the season to make that determination, thank goodness. If he keeps this up all season long, then the Astros should pay him in the offseason. I just have no clue what that contract would look like. Reddick got $52 million over 4 years. I could see Marwin warranting something similar if he can keep up this production or maybe something slightly pricier.

    Edit: Just saw that he's not a free agent until 2018. My answer doesn't really change, but another year definitely gives them more time to make a judgment call on his next contract.
     
  6. rocketpower2

    rocketpower2 Member

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    On the topic of future FAs, only upcoming ones on the 25 man are Beltran and Gregerson. I think it's highly likely that Beltran retires and that they let Gregerson walk with the ridiculous RP depth in the organization. Then they will use that $22MM cleared to cover quite a bit of the arbitration salaries.

    Books looks great. Luhnow really set this thing up to last.
     
  7. Major

    Major Member

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    That's pretty amazing.
     
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  8. torque

    torque Contributing Member
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    Oh my bad on the info. That's great! If he is for real, having him for 5M next year (in addition to Correa, Altuve, Springer, Keuchel, etc all being way underpaid) is just unfair.
     
    jsingles likes this.
  9. Buck Turgidson

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    Probably not, and absolutely not.
     
  10. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    Aoki's probably a non-tender.
     
  11. kaleidosky

    kaleidosky Your Tweety Bird dance just cost us a run

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    It's interesting.

    1) I can't remember the last time I saw an OPS progression like this (esp. for a non- super high level prospect, and a 28 year old):

    2014: .727
    2015: .759
    2016: .649
    2017: 1.021

    2) I can't remember the last time I saw an OPS that jumped 470 points(!) over 1 season through any semblance of a reasonable sample size...where it wasn't *heavily* BABIP driven. Marwin has a .318 BABIP right now! Last 3 years? .330, .326, .311. There isn't much luck (at least of that kind) built in here!
     
  12. rocketpower2

    rocketpower2 Member

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    Ah yeah, forgot about him. But he was always going to be a one year stop gap regardless.
     
  13. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
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    Best season ever by a utility player?

    Wasn't too long ago he'd never had a multi-run HR.... seems majority this season have been multi.

    Casey Candaele on rich man's steroids.

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. Buck Turgidson

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    The correct answer is still Jose Oquendo.
     
  15. Nook

    Nook Member

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    You know the league is checking his piss regularly.
     
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  16. Major

    Major Member

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    If he's legit and can be the Astros' Ben Zobrist and basically cover every position on the field (and fill in well in any spot in the lineup), he's worth a decent contract IMO. That type of positional versatility is really valuable.
     
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  17. torque

    torque Contributing Member
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    My total conjecture is that he and Altuve talked a lot this offseason about pitch selection. A few years ago Altuve was a slap happy singles hitter. Last year in particular, he completely changed his approach and became much more selective - ended up drawing 60 walks. Last year Marwin drew 22 walks all season and struck out 118 times. This year he already has 17 walks (on pace for 54) and only 31 strikeouts (on pace for 93). Plus he's about to set a single season career high for homers and it's still May. Altuve also had a notable increase in power once he started being more selective.
     
    vonwafer234 likes this.
  18. Rodman23

    Rodman23 .GIF

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    edit: nvm its in op

    i think he might be for real
     
    DudeWah likes this.
  19. Newlin

    Newlin Member

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    He probably will cool off. But, right now he should be playing every day. I don't want to see Marwin on the bench. Marwin plays multiple positions and is a switch hitter, so there is no excuse for him to sit. He's better than Aoki and Gurriel for sure. You could even play him at DH.
     
  20. rocketpower2

    rocketpower2 Member

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    He's going to get 4/$60MM or something like that if the bat plays at around an .800 OPS for this season and next. Much younger than Zobrist was when he signed that deal. It will be tough to keep him around with the impending big $$$ extensions for the core.
     
    texans1095 likes this.

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