Berkman came up during the Astros' greatest stretch of success; had those been bad teams, he likely ascends much earlier. Pence, OTOH, is actually a perfect example. His best season (based on OPS and OPS+) remains his rookie season (.899/129). He pretty much reached the majors a finished product - he was solid, and has been solid, but he really hasn't gotten appeciably better. The "normal" player progression is 22-24: ascension; 25-27: peak; 28-30: peak plateau; 30+: regression. That's obviously a very generous slice of generality - players buck those trends all the time. And that's why I was pretty muted in my skepticism. But I do think it's unrealistic to expect Martinez to accelerate to superstar status at this late(r) date.
We could argue a similar situation with Martinez. Though those teams sucked, we did have Lee/Bourn/Pence blocking him. As soon as they cleared that he was in the majors. Even if they had moved him quicker through the system, he wouldn't have made his big league debut any sooner.
Yeah...even though the dozens of tests he's likely been subjected to...and passed...haven't caught him, he's probably a user.
If a player goes to college there is almost no way he reaches the majors before 23. Jose Bautista 23 Ryan Braun 23 Lance Berkman 23 Joey Votto 24 Matt Holliday 24 Ryan Howard 24 Todd Helton 23 Jason Giambi 24 Thats just a few of them, most elite players are drafted out of high school or signed as a kid in Latin America. But not all. Martinez has hit everywhere, i have no idea while people are so convinced he won't be great.
#1 - They can't catch everything (HGH testing just started this spring, and doesn't occur during the season) #2 - If he's cheating, other people are too #3 - We need to quit assuming people are guilty or innocent. We don't know and for most players we never will. #4 - Oddly enough, he was also a 20th round pick like JD.
Ryan Zimmerman: 20 Evan Longoria: 22 Jeter: 21 Jim Thome: 20-22 Chase good example, Ryan Howard not. He was blocked. Good example. I don't think it would be fair to say that all players who are superstars are established by 24, but it is common. Fair enough.
I'm confused by this part. You are naming more players, which I could as well. Now that I think about it, I guess you are picking non top-10 greats. Jacoby Ellsbury Curtis Granderson Ian Kinsler Mike Napoli (He's a similar case to Bautista) Kevin Youkilis Nelson Cruz Carlos Santana Michael Young HOF caliber players that he could be like: Mike Piazza (Late round choice, extremely, that had a similar minor league career path) Jeff Kent (20th round, just like JD, and spent 2.5 years in the minors before making it) I highly doubt he will be either of those players, but I can dream. It is just very difficult to find late round college players that became all-stars. He's already beaten the odds to be where he is now. I think he will make 2-4 all-star games (then again Bags only made 4).
Superstar is too high. I can see him putting up 280 + 20 HR + 100 RBI's for a while. That will net him an all star game perhaps a few but superstar there's maybe 15 of those guys.
JD, I'm not so sure. The dude has a nose for RBI's, but needs a show a bit more power. And, as others have mentioned, it's a bit late for him to start at age 25. We'll see though. He could have several very productive years, but I'm not sold on superstardom. Altuve, however, could be a Dustin Pedroia type. I am VERY excited about him, especially with his new found patience at the plate.
Superstar is asking way too much of this kid. He was never considered to have the physical tools to be one, and so far he hasn't done anything to prove the scouts wrong. Without something illegal, he just can't add enough strength/speed. What he IS doing is becoming a damn good baseball player. Like some others, I want to see a larger sample size. Regardless, he looks to be developing into a player would would start in almost any teams lineup. That's far from insulting.
I don't see HOF type , but i'm very confident he will be a .300/375/475 guy. He's more of a doubles hitter, so he won't be a lineup anchor. But he will be a good 5 or 6 hitter on a good team. He can flat out hit, and has become patient. He plays a premium offensive position though, which limits his value. LF's have to hit a ton to be great.
I think the most important stat I am looking at is walks. If guy has patience he can get power with training etc. Plate disciple is a lot harder to get. I look at at guy like Jose Batista (maybe he was juicing) and I can envision JD Martinez doing it.
