You don't have to look any further than your own team to see how important having a top 5 pick is. The best player on our team when healthy is Yao and he was number one and so is the best player in the history of the franchise.
Huh? Why can't he talk about those guys in their primes (or even right now?) Kobe Bryant is leads the best team in the league (13th pick) And if you can reach back to the top 5 picks from their draft years, then please do so - and while you're at it, please explain why they aren't still playing in the NBA while their lower drafted compatriots are. If you want to make an argument that it's better to get one of: Iverson Camby Rahim Marbury Allen over Bryant, or Nash, then I'd be interested to hear it? Or if you think any of those 5 (the top 5 picks from the 1996 draft) are better players than Bryant (or Nash) then go right ahead, but it really renders null any other argument you've put forward. You want to do the 1998 NBA draft (Nowitzki)? Olowokandi, Bibby, LaFrentz, Jamison, Carter While Jamison and Carter are certainly good players, and Bibby very reliable, do any of them stack up to Nowitzki and Pierce? If you think that a current team of PG Nash SG Bryant SF Pierce PF Nowitzki C Stoudemire Granger, Joe Johnson, etc off the bench... is going to be beaten by anyone, especially that team you mentioned, then what more can be said? (we all know the referees would get Kobe home - unless Dirk lost it in the 4th quarter by throwing up airballs?) In their primes even more potent. Just cast your eye down the league leaders in scoring this season and lets notice how many are top 5 picks: Of the top 40 scorers in the league today, just 12 came in the top 5 of the draft. So - my summation: to get a top 5 pick is certainly handy, because very often you can get the player that you want. HOWEVER it is far from essential, and hoping that a top 5 pick will transform a franchise into a perennial contender is a sad mistake.
Imo the ones that are bold are all players that are either All stars/Franchise players/Good players. Honestly a top 5 pick would allow us to either pick someone that we can use based on talent/potential or give us the option of trading for an already established player. It's always better to have options than to limit your franchise's ability to improve, see Isiah Thomas' rein during his tenure on the Knicks.
I didn't say they were essential. I said they were much more valuable than picks 6 or lower. There is a difference. Of course star players can be found later. But the odds are much lower. Btw, are we going to use the So we're going with 96 as the cut-off line? Alright, I'll play. C Dwight Howard/Yao PF Duncan/Gasol/Bosh SF Lebron/Melo SG Wade/Billups PG Iverson(combo guard)/Chris Paul/Deron Williams There's my 12-deep top-5 roster. You think this team can't match yours!? Really? How do you want to compare? All-star appearance percentage? All-NBA? Playoff success? MVP Balloting? Head-to-Head matchup? I'll play any one of those.
Of the 40 top scorers, 12 of them were in the top 5. That's 12 top scorers for 5 draft positions. You to have to adjust for sample size of 6-60 th picks. That's 11 times larger than the top 5. It's not like teams get 11 times the picks, because they draft lower. So the 28 others are in picks 6-60, that's 55 picks. Divide 28 by 11 to get the same number of picks. That's 2.54 top scorers for every 5 draft picks in this range. 12 for 5 or 2.54 for 5 So a team is almost 500% more likely to get a top scorer in the top 5 than the bottom 55(adjusted for sample size) draft positions.
Yes, if your team drafts well or has history of getting the right picks. No, if your team has poor history of acquiring below average players who turnout to be a complete bust. Poor teams who have drafted well: Chicago Bulls (best of this decade, have drafted a quality NBA starter, since 1999) (Artest, Brand, Crawford, E.Curry, T.Hassell, J.Williams-potential to be a good above average pg before injury, R. Mason, M.Bonner, K.Hinrich, C.Duhon, B.Gordon, L.Aldridge (why did they trade him), J.Noah, and T.Gibson). Minnesota Timberwolves (the last 5 seasons), if they kept half of those players they'd be in the playoff picture (Chalmers, Flynn, Roy, Mayo, Rubio, Corey Brewer) Atlanta Hawks: Honestly, if they would've drafted Chris Paul, I think they'd would've been the best in the decade, hand down. (Gasol, Diaw, M.Williams, J.Smith, A.Horford) Poor teams who have drafted poorly: L.A. Clippers New Jersey Nets New York Knicks
I think this is a much better illustration of how great it is to have a top 5 pick on your team: Has a team EVER won a championship without at least one top 5 draft pick who was starring on their roster? I had to go all the way back to the '79 Sonics, who only had Wally Walker, who was a bit player for them in the playoffs, and didn't check prior to '66, due to the territorial draft, and the fact that there were far fewer teams back then. Sure, some of the champions traded for their stars, but ultimately, the best way to get a top 5 pick on your championship team is to DRAFT IN THE TOP 5. Even the Celtics had a top 5 pick when they traded for Jesus Shuttleworth.
Hard to say both teams are pretty close in most positions (except center): Post-96 team (players drafted after #5) C - Amar'e (9th), Zach Randolph (19th) (these two could also be forwards) PF - Nowitzki (9th), Shawn Marion (9th), Carlos Boozer (34th) SF - Tracy McGrady (9th), Paul Pierce (10th) SG - Kobe Bryant (13th), Ray Allen (6th), Gilbert Arenas (31st) [combo guard] PG - Steve Nash (15th), Rajon Rondo (21st), Tony Parker (28th) Hms: Al Harrington (25th) Rashard Lewis (31st) Richard Hamilton (7th) Manu Ginobili (56th) Andre Miller (8th) Jason Terry (10th) Hedo Turkoglu (16th) Michael Redd (43rd) Ron Artest (16th) Joe Johnson (10th) Gerald Wallace (25th) Memhet Okur (38th) Luis Scola (55th) Caron Butler (10th) Chris Kaman (6th) David West (18th) Josh Howard (29th) Jameer Nelson (20th) Danny Granger (19th) David Lee (30th) Monta Ellis (40th) Rudy Gay (8th) Aaron Brooks (26th) Carl Landry (31st) Marc Gasol (48th) Ramon Sessions (56th) Brooks Lopez (10th) Jonny Flynn (6th) Brandon Jennings (10th) Ty Lawson (18th) Darren Collison (21st)
