That's just not how these things work, man. Small changes add up. If Sengun can shoot 3s at 34% or higher, if Jabari bumps up his 3 point percentage a bit, if Tari plays more games and plays better defense, if Amen gets a better feel for when to cut, if everyone is a bit more crisp on knowing how to run the offense...this stuff all adds up. If this stuff all happens the team will win more games than last year. You can't just point to one player and say he's the only one who can do it. To put it another way, since you brought up offense and defense, we were 20th in offense and 10th in defense last year. If we can be 17th in offense and 8th in defense, mathematically that would put us at 47 wins. I don't think we would need a "major leap" from Jalen to be 17th in offense and 8th in defense.
I think even making the playoffs through the 10th seed and getting swept in the first round would be a disappointment to the coaching staff and front office. Owner would be psyched though because he gets playin and playoff revenue anyway. I think the minimum is finishing 8th or higher while winning 1 or 2 games in the first round. Otherwise we will see wholesale changes.
I mean, there are other options rather than dumping young guys for a declining star. Most likely you would take a hatchet to the core, sending out 2 players. You send them to a young team that has more time and patience to develop them in exchange for a slightly risky solid vet who's playing well (Ayton, Avdija, Miles Bridges, etc). I also don't have a problem at all with acquiring an ageing end of career star. This team is so young, if we have a bad season it will probably be because we have too little experience. A Jimmy Butler can be a vocal leader and 3rd scorer while playing above average defense. We'd be able to limit his minutes. Don't mind that because by the end of this coming season, we're going to have WAY more clarity about who's worth keeping.
more like Playoffs or Intense disappointment. The NBA is helping you out with high draft picks, it's not that hard.
If they don't make the playoffs, it won't be the fans who will demand Stone make a big trade, it'll be Tilman. It's clear from the speech he made recently that he's tired of waiting and this season is the start of playoff Rockets again.
We were one spot out of the play ins last season. We have 7 young promising players, six of them has one more year of NBA experience under their belt and should have improved. We have upgraded the backup C position. With Reed Sheppard we have added another good player as a backup G that should move Holiday out of the rotation. Tari is back and healthy and should push Tate out of the rotation. Even if we have injuries, we have pretty good guys in Holiday, Jock, Tate, Green to jump in. On paper we should be a significantly better team than we were last year. Now the west is stacked, but it absolutely should be playoffs or bust (and not just play ins or bust).
It depends on how they miss the playoffs. If they are above .500 in a absurdly stacked conference and still miss and someone like Sengun or Fred missed a solid amount of time due to injuries, Id say stay at a holding pattern. If everyone is healthy for most of the season and they are below .500 then it's time to see parts of the young core as trade assets to consolidate and find win now stars.
It would certainly be a big disappointment if the team misses the playoffs, but I could see a lot of scenarios in which we miss out on them and I still feel positive about the teams overall direction. 45 wins would have missed the playoffs last season. The bigger concern is how individual players look over the course of the season. If we win 46-48 games with FVV clearly being our most important player with other guys mostly static I don't consider that a better long term scenario than 40-45 wins with a few young players seemingly breaking out into a higher tier (with other players disappointing). And yes normally young players breaking out would go hand in hand with a playoff appearance, but not necessarily a guarantee. I don't expect it to happen, but there is more nuance than simply miss playoffs=disaster, massive need to blow things up. The ultimate goal to win a title is star level NBA players, not a bunch of good players that can get bounced in the first round.
If Fred misses a significant chunk of games and this team wins 45 games, even if we miss the playoffs, I would consider the season a success because at least I know that 45 wins was almost purely a result of the young core's production.
I think the season is far too health-dependent because while we're "deep" in the sense of having a talented roster overall, we're not a team who can handle losing Fred for a long time right now. For me the "is this season a bust?" question comes down to shooting. If Jabari, Jalen, Amen, Alpi, and Tari don't show signs of being better shooters, then our potential as a future championship contender is capped. We can defend our asses off, but if we can't space the floor, it's not going to matter.
Also we haven't seen the team stagnate yet....we have seen the team on a surreal 11 game winning streak and on a 4 or 5 Game Losing streak. We haven't seen much of a Middle ground which probably is the normal circumstance.
Yeah that's a good point, and there might be a few lulls over the course of the season. I tend to be a little more patient because them team is still young. If we have a few games where we come out flat or can't shoot, I am very unlikely to overreact. I like to have a full season sample size to really sit back and evaluate how players played consistently. I don't think we're contenders this season anyways, so it's another "show me" year where we're all hoping to see some progress. I think the culture is completely turned around from the Silas era, so now it's about producing on the offensive end to complement how hard we work on the defensive end.
I dont think you need Jalen to be great to reach the playoffs -- you need Jalen to be great to WIN in the playoffs.
