Is it not painfully obvious yet that the team is better without Patterson

Great post.

OP is just an ******* case and point.

We are not better right now without Patterson, to argue that is just stupid because the reasoning behind the trade was the future first and formost. Its not like patterson was scottie pippen or tmac where OP needs to pile it on and act like he was a team cancer. Patterson had fire and gave us good basketball.

 

Look like we've got ourselves some POFs

 

IMO Patterson would make this team even better than it is now, as he is still the better option than all our PFs. However, the difference would not be great because as it is constructed, this team does not rely that much on the PF spot. I can't think of many games after the trade (or before) when I thought the power forward was the key player for the win.

With PPat and Morris gone, Delfino and Dmo has been able to somewhat cover the "stretch 4" role, while McHale has been mixing and matching our platoon of imperfect PFs to squeeze as much as out of them.

I'd say our recent record reflects our growing chemistry, Lin's improved comfort in the system, Parson's increased aggressiveness, Asik's steady play, and the strength of our bench. Power forward is probably pretty down the list.

Jared Jeffries with a jumpshot (and the ability to make layups) is a borderline All-Star player.

 

His defense is not Jared Jeffries level

 

boy we needed 2pat and morris last night and they were not there

 

This is the most frustrating argument on the GARM. No one can make a credible case one way or the other until we see how the PF logjam plays out and whether Morey can use Robinson's potential as a key chip in a major trade to upgrade the roster.

Debating Robinson the player versus Patterson the player is like debating which of two SI supermodels you'd rather nail. The answer is that you don't have a prayer of reaching the holy land with either.

 

My point is this. You are making an assertion that the team currently is far better off now than before - as in the product on the floor. I don't buy that.

I think you had more issues of the players as a whole trying to figure it out, particularly Lin & Harden playing together. And our record has more to do with that than 2Pat. It's not an easy analysis (and excuse me for saying poopy that was a bit rude) by any means. There are so many variable in flux.]

But I find it incredulous to believe that we wouldn't do better with 2Pat starting over DMO who has been to put it kindly - subpar.

We've played a lot better since moving DMO to the bench. It's funny how our bad starts seemed to go away with that move as well.

 

Because beginning of season this team had many issues. It's been a team in flux. So the record and performance is hard to judge based on one player. From what I saw, we really struggled after the trade because 2Pat filled a reliable role. He did his job, and also hit some corner 3's keeping the spacing strong for Lin & Harden.

It's always an adjustment. We've struggled to find the chemistry - but right before the trade, this team was really beginning to click. And I think we've had a bit of an up and down road since then as Morris and 2Pat knew the system and played it far better than T-Rob/DMO. The fact we've tried T-Rob, DMO, Smith, and Jones at the position with no one the clear cut favorite is telling.

If 2Pat was here, guess what, there would be no doubt he'd be starting. And I think that's why this thread has a problem. It's painfully obvious that we'd probably have a better record had we not made the trade.

That said, it doesn't mean it was a bad trade in the long run. 2Pat was going to cause salary cap issues so he had to be moved. Morey wasn't trying to make the team better, he was trying to make sure he didn't end up empty handed when 2Pat left because we didn't give him the contract he can get in the open market.

 

Have you ever thought WHY the Rockets perimeter players have been playing much better since the trade?

For the entire year, the Rockets best lineup by far involve Parsons and Delfino at PF. This was true before the trade and after the trade. But before trade, when Patterson/Morris were bad, McHale kept playing them. After the trade, when DMo/Smith/TRob sucked, McHale went small. And the Rockets are REALLY good when they're small ball.

 

Either way, I miss having a guy at the 4 that can hit a jumper at will.


Greg Smith and Dmo need another season of development before you can depend on them for consistency.

 

And then there are the idiots that completely ignore the bottom line results and continue argue excuses with a complete lack of any objectivity as to why the team has been better since the trade.

 

And then there are the idiots who pick one out of a sea of variables to explain the bottom line results, and say all the other variables are "excuses".

 

It's disappointing to see folks pretend that their eye tests can make this go away. Patterson simply had a major negative effect on winning. Talent wins basketball games, always has, always will. The discontinuity from bringing in new players would have to be incredibly large to offset the improvement by not having a losing player on the floor, and the only evidence we have, our record without him, does not suggest at all that we've missed him.

We know that Morey hates box scores and instead uses refined +/-. This isn't open for debate, he's said it publicly straight out. He's said whoever created the box score should be shot. So when I see folks pointing to box scores over and over to rate or discount players, I have to shake my head.

All the moves Morey's made, from a poorly leveraged situation, that got us to where we are today: That was in large part based on evaluating players through adjusted +/-. That's the secret to how Morey is able to grade players so much better than most organizations[1] and continually bank more value after each transaction, like the kid on ebay who turned a broken radio into a car over the course of a year. Morey is very confident he's adding value at every transaction because his metrics are objective and measuring the right things: Winning.

There isn't enough data in an NBA season to make refined +/- stats perfect, but they're obviously good enough; the proof is in Morey's pudding. Before RAPM was discontinued, it was the state of the art. We can be pretty sure Morey's at least as sophisticated.

If you want to know why, barring Atlanta getting a home town discount, Josh Smith will be a Rocket next year, you need only glance at last year's RAPM:

http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2012.html

[1] Being able to grade players better doesn't mean winning every transaction. There's always risk, uncertainty, and change. Counting cards doesn't mean you win every time, but the edge means you certainly win in the long term.

 

best OFFENSIVE lineup but we lost a lot of games because of delfino getting punished by larger players in the post and lack of rebounding with him on the floor

 

The Rockets are better since the trade. No excuses needed, no explanations needed and no one missed. Happy? If your not then your not a Rockets fan.

 

Well we lost a lot of games this year because [insert a PF from the 2012-2013 Rockets here] wasn't getting rebounds.

We have not been able to consistently rebound out of that spot no matter who is at the 4 sans Greg Smith (and he's in foul trouble from tip to buzzer), why do people act like it's unique to Delfino?

 

Just listen to the TheFreak:

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=7818357&postcount=912

 

Going with whoever is playing better at the time instead of sticking with an awful player like Patterson through poor play is definitely the better option.

 

The Rockets have a better SRS (which adjusts for margin of victory and strength of schedule) without Patterson. What more "context" do you want?

 

Plenty of contexts out there:

1. SRS does not adjust for rest days, IIRC.

Rockets are 6-14 in 2nd half of back two back games. They had 6 sets of back to backs in January, 2 sets in March.

2. SRS does not adjust for Jeremy Lin's health. Lin said it himself: he was really struggling in the early part of the season with his knee, been much better lately.

3. SRS does not adjust for Patterson's health. Patterson had off-season ankle surgery and was recovering from it earlier in the year. He also had another foot issue that caused him to miss a number of games and slowed him down thereafter for a while. His production, particularly shooting accuracy, suffered during the injuries, but was otherwise extremely efficient-- over his last 30-games or so as a Rocket, Patterson had a TS% of over .600.


3. Being the most inexperienced team ever (according to Morey) and few guys having ever played with each other, one can expect the Rockets to get significantly better through the development of players' individual skills and through the development chemistry among Harden-Lin-Parsons-Asik, etc. (more so than with veteran teams).

For example, Jeremy Lin has more than tripled the number of NBA minutes he's played since the season started. Omer Asik has more than doubled his.

4. If Patterson was the one holding the team back, one would expect his replacement overall to show some visible signs of being better than him-- either in terms of individual production or in terms of the sort of "intangibles" that guys like Battier bring.

Instead, one can't pinpoint what's going right with the new PFs: Robinson has played himself out of the rotation, DMo played himself out of a starting job, Smith has only played a few games (and minutes) at PF to be the cause of the supposed "improvement" that supposed happened because Patterson left. Jones has played even less minutes.