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Is it Miller time?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by x_trepidation_x, Jun 18, 2003.

  1. StupidMoniker

    StupidMoniker I lost a bet

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    After trading Mobley for Miller, lets trade Francis for Kerr, cut Posey and sign Paxson, release Ming and get Sam Perkins, and trade Griffin for Robert Horry. Then we can have the all broken down old three point shooter team. Unstoppable. Heck, Horry even still plays a smidge of defense.
     
  2. x_trepidation_x

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    I will address 2 issues: 1) Miller vs Mobley and 2) Miller vs Rice

    <B>Miller vs Mobley</B>
    You can't compare Millers game to Mobley. Mobley is a slasher and a one on one guy and Miller is the outside sharp shooter. The reason I was contemplating this trade is because Mobley is a dime a dozen. There are so many athletic 2's out there, (see Stephen Jackson on the Spurs) in the league and some who just haven't gotten a chance to prove themselves. Miller's skills are more rare because you can't teach clutch shooting. You either have it or you don't. Replacing a player like Mobley is much easier then replacing a guy like Miller. In addition to that, Mobley is undersized for his position among other things...which I won't go into.

    <B>Miller vs Rice</B>
    I agree, Glen Rice and Miller should be compared considering both players are the sharp shooters on their teams.

    Here are the 2003 Stats for both players:

    Lets look at the offense cause that is why we would be bringing in Miller for. The glaring number is points per shot. Miller averages nearly .17 points more per shot then Rice. I realize this might seem trivial but it is a big difference. If Rice took an average of 8 shots in a game, he would collect 9.68 points on average. Miller on the other hand would have racked up 11.04 points for the same amount of shots Rice took. In a tight game it could make the difference especially considering Miller's ability to hit the clutch shot. Also Miller scores more, free throw percentage is greater, and he accumulates more assists.

    I think we are comparing apples and oranges here. I'm not sure if Miller's number would get better if he played for the Rockets because he is playing in the stronger West. But, there is a good chance it would because certainly he would get more open looks because of Yao's demanding of double teams.

    Reggie Miller
    <B>12.6 Points</B>
    <B>1.38 Points Per Shot</B>
    <B>.900 Free Throw</B>
    <B>2.50 Rebounds</B>
    <B>2.4 Assists</B>
    .94 Turnovers
    .89 Steals
    .06 Blocks

    Glen Rice
    <B>9 Points</B>
    <B>1.21 Points Per Shot</B>
    <B>.759 Free Throw</B>
    <B>2.50 Rebounds</B>
    <B>1.0 Assist</B>
    .89 Turnovers
    .37 Steals
    .08 Blocks
     
  3. verse

    verse Member

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    just curious, x_trepidation_x,

    what makes you think that reggie miller's man would double down on yao ming? if anyone is going to double over, it'll probably be eddie griffin's man, seeing as how he is %-wise our worst starting shooter. next in line would be j-posey's man.
     
  4. SLA

    SLA Member

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    Usually...they send Posey's man to double team...who is usually closer to Yao and can reach him faster and can try to knock the ball away.

    If they sent their power forward.....then the lane would be free for us to attack!
     
  5. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    You're right in that there's no comparison, Mobley is simply a far better player at this point in his career. If its so easy to replace a guy with a cap friendly deal who averages 18-20 ppg over the course of a season, you should alert most NBA GMs, cause I guarantee you there is not one on earth who would make that deal. You think San Antonio wouldn't take him over Jackson in a half a hearbeat? Clutch shooting? maybe back in 1995; this year the guy's averaged DROPPED from his career lows during the regular season to 9 ppg, 28% shooting, and an abysmal 19% from behind th arc in the playoffs

    Reggie Miller will be lucky, LUCKY, to get the MLE, much less a sign and trade for a far superior player.


    Apples and oranges? A more apt comparison would be a beat up Chevy and a Broken down old Ford. Your statistical arguments are really splitting hairs, FT %? Assists? Well, why not just throw in Rice's advantage in shot blocking while you're at it? A .17 difference in PPS? Come on, PPS? Kobe's PPS is lower than Millers too, about the same as Rice, yet he shoots a higher fg% and better from the 3pt line (as does Rice). So who' s more efficient again?

    At best, he is marginally more "efficient" than Rice in very limited minutes, though a worse three point shooter. Either way, nothing to write home about.

    Look, I'm not saying he's worthless, but does this team need an Eddie Johnson type to hit big shots in the late rounds of the playoffs? Much less squander one of their few valuable trade assets in the course of doing it? I think the answer is a resounding no.
     
    #25 SamFisher, Jun 18, 2003
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2003
  6. x_trepidation_x

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    Verse,

    Well, I suppose you make a good point and I'll attempt to address the issue.

    I suppose you are right, the defensive 4 would most likely double on Yao in the best case scenario for the opposing team but... how the heck did Steve Kerr get so many open shots in the limited amount of time he played when the opposing team knew he was coming in to drain three's?

    Well... in the NBA finals, Duncan and Kerr played it out perfectly. Duncan would be fed the ball on the left or right side of the court. Steve would sit at the perimeter on the same side that Duncan was. The other three players on the Spurs team would be on the opposite side of the court. Leaving Kerr's man the only one who could help out in the situation. When Duncan would be doubled down by the person who was defending Kerr, Duncan would toss the ball out to Kerr for an open 3.

    It's a vanilla strategy but it works. And it worked well cause Duncan demands double teams and Kerr can hit the outside shot with consistency. We could implement this same kind of strategy with Yao and Miller.
     
  7. StupidMoniker

    StupidMoniker I lost a bet

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    Couldn't we use the same strategy with Yao and (Francis, Mobley, Rice, Nachbar, Hawkins, Posey, or even Griffin) They all shot about the same 3pt% as Miller this past season. It really isn't worth giving up Mobley's superiority in defense, scoring, rebounding, passing :eek:, youth, and minutes, for some notion that Reggie Miller is the same guy he was 4 years ago.
     
    #27 StupidMoniker, Jun 18, 2003
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2003
  8. x_trepidation_x

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    Sam Fisher,

    I'm sure you know, Reggie, had an ankle injury that was hindering him from performing at his best this year.

    But lets get down to business

    Again, Lets compare Reggie Miller and Mobley once again.

    Mobley as I said before, is an undersized 2 who is at best a career back up player. I'm surprised you haven't figured this out yet? Remember how good the Rockets were when Francis didn't play and Mobley was the main man? Yeah they sucked. But, in all fairness Mobley isn't an all-star caliber player and shouldn't have to burden that kind of responsibly. But, Mobley failed cause of two reasons 1) Talent, he is a great slasher but that is about it 2) He doesn't know how to create easy opportunities for his teammates and isn't a good team player but rather thrives on the one on ones. It's amazing Mobley got his points but failed to make anyone else around him better by once again, averaging less then 3 assists per game, yet this guy plays almost the entire game and touches the ball a lot. Imagine that.

    In regards to guys who could average 18-20 points per game. Well here is just a small list.

    You take a lot of guys and give them 15-16 shots per game as Mobley had, and I'm willing to bet, they could average 18-20 points per game. <B>This is just to answer your question not a measure of their worth as a player. Also, each and every one of these guys has a higher Points Per Shot output meaning they could get to 20 points with less shot attempts.</B>

    Player PPS
    Tracy McGrady, ORL 1.32
    Kobe Bryant, LAL 1.28
    Paul Pierce, BOS 1.29
    Ray Allen, SEA 1.26
    Allan Houston, NYK 1.26
    J. Stackhouse, WAS 1.26
    Steve Francis, HOU 1.30
    R. Hamilton, DET 1.25
    Jason Terry, ATL 1.22
    Michael Redd, MIL 1.28
    D. Anderson, POR 1.27
    Brent Barry, SEA 1.34
    Doug Christie, SAC 1.34
    R. Patterson, POR 1.26
    Jon Barry, DET 1.31

    Spurs wanting Mobley? HUH?

    You really think Spurs want Mobley? Only in your dreams. Mobley would have to learn how to pass and shot perimeter shots first. There would be little room for his selfish play. <B>Imagine seeing this on SportsCenter, Mobley has the ball and he sees a wide open Duncan (see Yao) waiting for a pass but Mobley decides he is the man and ignores Duncan and tries to score himself. Yeah, that is exactly the kind of player the Spurs are looking for.</B>

    I don't believe I'm splitting hairs in regards to the statistics. All I have shown is that if Miller and Rice took the same amount of shots Miller would accumulate more points. How is that splitting hairs? Also, Miller does average higher assists and has a higher free throw percentage. If you think these are unimportant statistics then what do you consider important? I?m kind of wondering what you are basing your analysis on.

    As for your efficiency question, as you well know efficiency ranking is a combination of all the major statistical categories. Points Per Shot is just a combination of 3 major offensive categories. To say Reggie Miller is more efficient then lets say Kobe is ridiculous cause Kobe obviously rebounds more, gets more assists, steals the ball more, etc.

    I realize you want to hate on Reggie Miller but he really is one of the best pure shooters in the game still. I wasn't suggesting give him a max contract, however, what I was implying was that Reggie Miller is still a dangerous player who can light it up. If you can't differentiate between Miller and Rice than I'm speechless. And your argument of their age and making an analogy to old beat up cars is hilarious but really has no substance as evidence to help your point.

    Listen, Miller played 30 minutes a game on an injured ankle this past season but still put up some numbers. Give the man a break.
     
  9. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    xtx, first you want reggie miller cause he's a great outside shooter. Well, the evidence is undeniable that he really is not one any longer.

    Now you harp on efficiency. Wow, he scores .17 more points per shot than Glen Rice. Too bad he's not as good an outside shooter anymore.

    As for your silly Mobley bashing, you're all over the map, Mobley is a career backup, Mobley scores 21 points a game but can't lead his team to the playoffs, Mobley is too short (the implication there isthat he is a defensive liability, do you honestly think that Reggie Miller is a better defender than Cuttino Mobley? Get out of here) Mobley isn't as good as Tracy McGrady, Kobe Bryant, etc. as far as PPS. So what, he's not as good as them in anything else either

    But if he sucks so much, why do you think Jeff van Gundy REPEATEDLY mentioned Mobley as a cornerstone of the team when he was introduced? Because he is a career backup who is worse than Stephen Jackson?

    At least you concede he is a great slasher. Yes he is that. And his 3 point shooting is near IDENTICAL to that of Reggie Miller last year. Look it up, he shot approximately the same number of attempts, made the like one fewer shot, and had a percentage of 35%, the same as Miller. And he's got the slashing on top of it.

    You are splitting hairs. When you are trying to compare two role players (jumpshooters) and you are down to comparing their assists and their Free Throw %, it's like arguing over whether or not Kelvin Cato or Jason Collier is a better ballhandler. Sure, they are important, but not for a stand around jumpshooter who is going to catch and release 99 percent of the time.

    Yeah, I understand Reggie hurt his ankle. And Hakeems sucked his last few years cause he hurt his back, that's the kind of stuff that happens when you become old and washed up.

    THere'll be an easy way to settle all this. When Reggie Miller becomes a free agent soon, if teams want him, they will bid for him. I would be shocked, absolutely shocked if he was able to wrangle anything more than the MCE out of anybody. But I don't think that will happen. Who knows, maybe somebody will sign hima and he will have a huge season and prove me and 29 NBA gms wrong, and I will gladly concede your point if he does.
     
  10. wowming

    wowming Member

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    man, remember that playoff series when Reggie scored, i can't remember, about 30 points in 8 seconds? it was one one the finest things i have ever seen as a basketball fan.
    whenever the rockets are down by a bunch in the fourth quarter, i always say to my friends, "quick- trade for reggie miller!"
    although, at this point, yeah. he's old. glen rice does everything we could expect reggie to do.
    i was just looking for an excuse to relive that wonderful night.
     
  11. TBar

    TBar Member

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    Carroll Dawson will love this Idea. He loves to acquire these broke down - has been players
     
  12. Aceshigh7

    Aceshigh7 Member

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    Reggie likes to take the last shot in crucial game situations. In those kind of situations I would rather have Francis or Yao taking that game winning shot.
     
  13. DieHard Rocket

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    It was actually 8 points in 8 seconds if I remember right. Hit a 2, then a 3, then stole the inbound and nailed another 3.

    Reggie is one of the most underrated defensive players in the league. You can't even compare him to Glen Rice on that end of the floor. Everyone just seems to think that 3 pt shooters don't play defense. But, he's not a good fit on this team. He needs more motion in the offense, rather than a low post game.
     
  14. francis 4 prez

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    it was actually a 3, shove a knick down on the inbounds, steal the pass, turn around and nail a 3, then hit 2 ft's seconds later after i believe starks missed a few ft's and reggie was somehow fouled. almost sure it was 3-3-2 ft's.
     
  15. StupidMoniker

    StupidMoniker I lost a bet

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    It's funny how "great plays" are often the result of cheating. (see Jordan, game 6 vs Utah)
     

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