Is Hillary blowing it?

Yep - the longer a lot of these guys are in, the better for Trump and Cruz. The assortment of establishment guys - Bush, Rubio, Christie, Kasich - need to consolidate into 1 guy quickly to get some momentum. To your point about Bush, that will be really interesting - with as much money and name recognition as he has, along with his former belief that he was supposed to be "the guy", will his ego let him give up after just 2 states?

 

I don't think he will give up. I think he is convinced that he has enough money that if he just stays in long enough he can outlast everyone. I think he is also personally bitter about Rubio.

It will become "too late" very early though. I think he sees Florida as his own firewall (foolishly) and that isn't until March 15th. There are a lot of establishment firewall states that will go between February 23rd and March 5th. If he stays on the ballot through those he will get Cruz nominated.

 

I know several Trump supporters, and while they are outspoken about their support for him, they are also not highly politically astute. They perceive things as worse than they are I can't imagine them sitting through a Caucus. Only one would even bother to vote in a primary.

I think Trump has touched a nerve with a lot of people who don't typically vote but are outspoken about their disdain for politics. I am not convinced that will translate to primary votes.

 

It's funny how this is a mirror image of 2012. Then, it was Romney as the establishment guy that squeaked through lots of early primaries, winning with 30-40% because the anyone-but-Romney camp was fractured (Gingrich, Santorum, etc). If those guys had consolidated early, they might have had a chance. This time, it's exactly the flipside with too many establishment guys.

 

Talking about the Democratic primary, as I sit here imagining being a black person and evaluating these candidates from that perspective, that is the likely effect it would have on me. I would just not be very motivated to participate in this process.

It is my sense that the BLM movement is the beginning of a somewhat misguided anti-establishment movement among the Democrats. After 60 years, this group of people is finally starting to wake up and realize they have been used and taken advantage of by the Democrats.

Of course Republicans have not done anything for "black people" specifically either, but the Republicans do not pretend that they are trying to cater to them that way. Rather, Republicans want to treat them and everyone as human beings and citizens of this country, and not try to promise government action according to the melanin level in people's skin.

So the BLM movement is where black people are beginning to protest the Democratic candidates especially, because they are finally becoming aware that these people need to have their feet held to the fire and be held accountable. They seem to be becoming aware that just rubber stamping these Democrat's agendas at the ballot box does not help them.

Many of them may be realizing that to find their power, they are going to have to either vote Republican or stay home for a while. In the short term, that probably will mean in most cases staying home. With everything else that is happening, including the BLM movement, nobody should be surprised if this is the year we see that happen. Which would not be good news for the Democrat's nominee for President in November.

 

Or how about 2008, McCain vs Romney? Huckabee was dead in the water but he stayed in the race specifically to kill Romney's chances because of personal distaste for his campaign tactics. In that election Romney was the "Washington is Broken" candidate, playing up the outsider status coming to Washington to fix things. If Huckabee had dropped out, McCain might have lost to Romney.

People don't remember this, but there was a lot of personal dislike for Romney from the other candidates in 08 due to his "scorched earth" tactics. Gingrich flat out called him dirty and a bad human being in a debate.

The reports out there are that Bush has a LOT of bitterness right now about Rubio. How long it takes him to get over that could determine who the Republican candidate is. New Hampshire will be very interesting. I expect John Kasich to do really well there, and then the establishment needs to bring pressure. They can afford for TWO establishment guys to duke it out, but they can't have 3. Rubio, Bush, Kasich, Christie; two of them need to go and a third needs to get out before Florida.

Ideally after New Hampshire I would like to see Bush and Christie step aside (or Kasich if Christie overtakes him) and then after Nevada the third guy needs to think long and hard about dropping out before Tuesday, March 1. If he stays in he definitely needs to drop out after. You need one establishment guy to get momentum heading into Florida because if you are still split there; wow.

 

This is the problem. You're not a black person and you haven't lived the existence they have. Try as you or I might, we're simply not in any position to see the world through their eyes. What we know is that they DO love the Clintons and there is a long history there. Obama interrupted that, but for a long time even during the 2008 primaries, there were questions of who would win the black vote because of that strong connections.

 

all i got from this is that most social workers out there are conservative and vote republican.

 

The only one who can win and support from blacks are her possible Achille's heal. On both of these fronts she is vulnerable as continuing and NOW REPORTED polls show Bernie doing at least as well as her against possible GOP candidates. Also Hillary is steadily losing support among blacks every day as they become aware of Sanders and his positions. He started at 3 percent due to no name recognition and is up to a growing 20% among African Americans.

Will there be enough time for Bernie to overtake Hilary among blacks is probably the big question.

Hillary is not helping herself with her failed and transparently dishonest attacks initiated by rich girl Chelsea lol on Bernie's healthcare policies

 

Bernie is offering more "free stuff" than she is. In fact, it is hard to offer more free stuff than Bernie wants to. However, he can't actually deliver on that agenda legislatively and there is no way to pay for it. But if you are just pulling the lever for whoever promises the most, that would be Bernie.

 

I remember this very well. A friend of mine that is a pastor in Iowa had nothing good to say about Romney in '08. Said what his supporters did there was disgraceful (character assassination against Huckabee). I'm with you that Huckabee stayed in just to damage Romney's chances and he is at least partially responsible for McCain prevailing.

Whether Bush has as much bitterness towards Rubio remains to be seen. We'll find out.

 

I think many here are vastly underestimating how many women are going to pull the lever for Ms. Clinton behind the curtain.

 

STOP IT. I DONT WANT TO THINK ABOUT HER VAGINA.

 

I think that underestimates the intelligence of women. There might be some groups that will vote for a person simply because they have something in common like race or gender....but most groups aren't like that.

The "Vote for me, I'm a woman" pitch will probably fall flat.

 

Isn't New Hampshire supposed to be one of Sander's strongest primaries? And Iowa a toss up?

So unless he truly trounces Hillary, does it really change much? And if Bernie loses New Hampshire, I think it's hugely damaging to him while its a small setback to her.

 

She is saying "vote for me, I'm a badass and a woman" I think the chicks will dig it, it's empowering. I have little doubt she can handle the office, probably better than anyone available, plus, you get the Big Dog.