Only 1 of the top 3 picks is performing widely below expectations given their positions and draft status. Bush was said by many (but not by me) to be more of sure thing prospect wise/talent wise than Sanders, Faulk and LThom. His rookie season look nothing of the sort--those guys took the league by storm as most of the greatest running backs in the NFL have. But VY doesn't look at that different than other throwing/running/athletic QBs taken at the top of the draft and pressed into action, e.g., McNabb, Elway, Vick, Steve Young, Alex Smith... It is a much different and more difficult process for QBs to make the college-pro transition. I would argue DEs also have more of an adjustment than running backs, but less than QBs. MW is looking fine.
desert scar.. I mentioned the part about the rb being considered a position that a player can make an impact faster at so I agree about making an impact faster than Vince, but I do think all 3 should be given some time before labeled a bust or anything. Time to see if he adjusts, etc over the offseason. I am happy the Texans picked Mario Vince's stats haven't been all that great either, but like you said it takes time. He could end up like many qbs that struggled early and then had great careers (or he could end up just an average nfl qb, too early to tell with him or most rookies really). All depends on the progress he makes, I would expect him to make progress and improve. How much he improves as far as ending up being an average qb or a great qb or what, we won't know for a few years. There is room for improvement, but way too early for me to stay he'll be amazing, etc. Just have to wait and see I suppose.
For those that study defense more than me.... how does Mario look compared to the average starter at his position?
I regard Elway as the best QB in the history of the NFL. Elway's first season he was 123/259, for a 47.5% completion rate. He threw 7 TD's and 14 INT's in 10 games started (11 games total). His passer rating was 54.9. Young has played in 9 games. He has completed 90/197 for a 45.7% completion rate. He has thrown 6 TD's and 8 INT's in 7 games started (9 games total). His passer rating is 56.1.
What is the relevance to all this crap with Elway etc...? Where are Heath shulers, David Klingler, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith etc.. stats? It goes both ways guys! Some qbs struggle early and become Elway and others do nothing. They are Rookie QBS, most struggle!
We're talking about expectations, IC2000. He's suggesting VY isn't performing as he should be. I used Elway's numbers to suggest your very last point...most rookie QB's struggle. I'm not suggesting that VY will absolutely, positively be a great QB. I am suggesting I THINK he will be.
David Carr...52.5% completion rate and 62.8 rating his rookie year...on an expansion team. David Carr > John Elway
That's great, except that we have 4 more years of data on him. Is it really that complex to understand that a rookie QB can't be judged by his numbers based on history? Or are you that desperate to defend Carr that you have to twist things to try to justify your argument? No one had any problems with Carr after his first year.
I never said that overall Carr is better than Elway. Im talking about their rookie seasons. And Im right.
Exactly!!! But you can't say the same thing about Hall of Fame running backs for the most part. Most of them had monster rookie years. I think already any illusions that Reggie Bush is going to be the next LThom or Faulk (whom people were saying were the low ball estimates), let alone be better than Sanders or Sayers, pretty much wiped already. Doesn't mean Bush couldn't possibly be a Tiki Barber or Westbrook or Dunn, maybe even better, but I think the world beater phenom label is already busted. For Vince Young or Mario Williams, the sky still is pretty much the limit and we don't have any evidence clearly dispelling that. This doesn't mean that they won't fail to be outstanding players but certainly their drafting teams can't be unhappy about their progress or current impact.
I'm not really suggesting he isn't performing as he should be, since many rookie qbs struggle. I'm suggesting that his stats thus far haven't been anything spectacular. They haven't been anything to make me think "wow he is going to be great ". At the same time, they aren't anything that makes you think he can't be great, considering the fact that many struggled their first year. You can list someone that struggled early and then ended up a spectacular qb. Struggling early doesn't mean he will be a bad qb, but it also doesn't mean he'll be a great one just because some other qbs struggled early as well. There is always the chance he could struggle early and always struggle He could also end up a very good qb. He could end up great, I'm just saying thus far his stats aren't all that great. He may end up a great qb like many that had rough first years, or he may end up an average qb. Can't tell yet really...
Oh, and I hope he doesn't turn into a winning qb because if he is winning divisions...... then that means the Texans aren't winning the divison! In 5 years or so maybe we will have the info to judge Vince, Leinart and Cutler and see who ends up the best qb in the draft. You think Vince will a great qb. I think Cutler will be a great qb (certainly is in an organzation that can win). Many think Leinart will be a great qb. Maybe they all will be great qbs, maybe none of them. Hopefully Mario is great!
To be clear on that last statement, I hope he has a good career because I have nothing against him or anything. I just hope he isn't winning the division, I'd prefer that to be Texans He can win as much as he wants, just hopefully not finish in front of the Texans.
I can agree that it was obvious Young would struggle early. Reggie looks bad now but lets give him time. Mario has been far from impressive and many of the dominant defensve players dominated their rookie years. Merriman, ware, peppers, etc.. The courtney browns, robertsons, andre wadsworths etc.. never did anything in their rookie seasons or after that. I still have seen basically nothing from williams. He has 1.5 sacks that should not even count. So in reality 3 sacks and not even a forced fumble
RB is by far the easiest position to make an immeadiate impact. Almost every dominant RB, has been great as soon as the hit the NFL. You want to give Bush more time, but won't give the same oppurtunity to Williams?
Yeah but none of those guys were the 3rd youngest player in the NFL when they started. Mario was a true junior when he came out. This would have been his senior year. I think he's doing admirably given his youth and inexperience.
The same point MadMax made by comparing Elway and Young's rookie years. Its not that complicated buddy. *edit* If you're still lost...my point is that comparing rookie year numbers is worthless.
Ok let me get this right. Most great running backs have monster rookie years but quarterbacks don't, so the sky is the limit for VY, but Bush will be lucky to be average at best? Is that really your argument? Do you really believe that? Just like we can find QB rookies that sucked (ok elway sucked, but roethlisburger was awesome his rookie year), we can find just as many RBs who weren't great (tomlinson was good, but larry johnson had on a diaper). What about Priest Holmes? Come on, we can do this all day. I think comparing players from present to past is like pissing in the wind, so may factors, it doesn't really hold any weight at all.
