Is China invading Taiwan inevitable and what will US defend it??

But according to you, Taiwan should not fight back, as you are "anti-war" now.

 

This has been brought up before but while the PRC has an overwhelming advantage due to proximity Taiwan still would be very tough to take. Even though Taiwan is much smaller than Ukraine its geography makes it much harder. It’s first it’s an island and the PRC navy is big but unproven and their ability to make massive amphibious landings is questionable. Once they land to just try to take Taipei would be very difficult as it’s a built up and dense city with a large population. The Island of Taiwan is mountainous with forest and deep valleys. It’s not the type of terrain that tanks could be easily rolled through.

The PRC would need to count on delivering an early devastating blow that would compel the ROC government. To surrender quickly and hope the population just accepts PRC rule. If that doesnt happen a protracted war to take Taiwan will turn against them.

 

Most of all though my own view is that a war to take Taiwan will be very costly to the PRC’s continued economic development. It will cripple their economy and at the minimum cause a global recession. The PRC won’t be able to trade from sanctions or simply that trade lanes are blockaded and trade partners are struggling with the economic fallout. I still have a hard time seeing the vast majority of the people in the PRC accepting economic hardships and deaths of troops for an extended period of time. This isn’t the generation that experienced the hardships of the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution. Most Chinese have grown up with full bellies, video games and Nike sneakers. If the CCP can’t deliver those I doubt a nationalistic call to make China Whole is going to sustain that.

 

On a personal note since I have family who are both from Hong Kong and Taiwan. 10 years ago most of the family from Taiwan was against Taiwan joining the PRC while those from Hong Kong were for it. The Taiwan side though wasn’t very concerned about it and not very vocal. Now the Taiwan side of the family is concerned about it but privately the Hong Kong side are skeptical of the PRC and whether Taiwan should join.

All of this is due to Xi Jinping. Accepting a “one country, two systems” has been exposed as hollow by what has happened in Hong Kong the last few
years. Most particularly the new security law. Many Taiwanese feel this is proof that the CCp can’t be trusted. At the same time I’ve heard from family in Hong Kong that they feel very betrayed by the CCP.

If the PRC had actually lived up to the agreements they made when Hong Kong returned from things might be different but as such there is little reason to trust that Taiwan autonomy will be preserved under the PRC.

 

Im willingly for the US to stand up to China.

How about you? More tariffs? More angry rhetoric from the right? Sternly worded letters? More isolationism as China takes over more parts of the globe?

Eh?

 

It's a generational thing. The under 45 group still believe in Taiwanese autonomy and the status quo

The older group is more more pragmatic about the situation. They lived through one or two occupations and understand they're not in a position of strength. They realize a determined China guarantees them taking over Taiwan, in whatever form or shape, so they are open to considering negotiation despite the Hong Kong situation.

The next Taiwan election will gauge public sentiment. The kmt candidate Ma is more open to negotiation away from independence. If he wins then it's a subtle indication Taiwanese don't think the US can save them directly.

For us, the situation in Ukraine is more or less going swimmingly and used as a cautionary tale. For Taiwanese, they view Ukraine as backwater hicks with wheat and gas. They have far more to lose and aren't thinking of hiding in mountains while their cities get bombed into ashes.

I don't think anyone will be deluded into thinking the two government one state model will last. But one year at a time for the Taiwanese and it's likely better than war.

 

please provide evidence to back up this assertion.

 

Uhh quit projecting. There's multiple war games that show America winning every time. Those simulations were done BEFORE we had access to Philippines air bases. What are you talking about? This idea that China is going win certainly is just propoganda.

What is this "open to negotiation" stuff. There's no middle ground. China wants taiwan part of mainland. Taiwan doesn't want to be part of China. There's been multiple polls that show less than 20% of public support reunification. Not sure why you have to wait till 2024

 

Yes the next election in Taiwan will show a lot. I haven't followed it closely enough but I know that the KMT leader was visiting the PRC the same time that Tsai was visiting the US. I don't think though that most Taiwanese are prepared to accept PRC soveriegnity over them now. Even if the KMT wins I I don't expect any unification agreement soon. They will tamp down independence talk and push for more cross straits integration. To note while the DPP is technically for independence Tsai has tamped down independence talk also and seems very cautious on that.

 

Real politik is that it would be a terrible outcome for the US if Taiwan peacefully reunited and China just absorb all the advanced manufacturing intact.

 

This.

A lot of people in the USA and Western Europe seem to believe the fall of Taiwan would simply be a matter of the USA losing face, and that is far from the truth. There is a lot of issues outside of losing face. The economic and geopolitical fall out would be severe.

 

Big thing with the KMT is that all of the free trade agreement negotiations with the US will stop overnight if they win. I dont think we'll get any sort of reunification but we'll get a pause on a lot of the foreign policy changes that the DPP have started. Its not discussed enough that the Biden administration (along with the DPP government) has started negotiations on a comprehensive free trade agreement which would more or less amount to defacto recognition of the Taiwanese government.

This would mark the the first time a country has normal relations with the CCP government in Beijing while implementing a trade agreement directly with the Taiwanese government. And once the US does it, its only a matter of time before other western countries negotiate their own deals. The general consensus was always that a country had to pick which government to recognize and negotiate with (either the CCP or the Taiwanese government). The US is on the verge of breaking this entirely and creating a third path where countries can implement a de facto recognition of the Taiwanese government while simultaneously maintaining relations with Beijing.

 

I have family, primarily in Hong Kong but some in Taiwan.

The family I had in Hong Kong was very much pro-Hong Kong independence and believed that Hong Kong was the gate way to the East for Western powers. In many ways they viewed themselves as the opposites of Mainland China. They were and are very angry at England and more so at China. They believe that England rolled over but more importantly they believe their culture and way of life is being destroyed by the CCP.

The family I had in Taiwan actually was less concerned about, until they saw what happened in Hong Kong and now they, and many other Taiwanese are considering the USA as a new home.

I am curious to see what happens.

I have heard some Americans downplaying Taiwan - but it has 25 million people in it, it is very well educated and very capable and wealthy.

 

I don't think KMT has a chance of winning again. People in Taiwan who were more keen on re-unification are aging. The new generation that was born and raised in Taiwan has a strong sense of national identity with Taiwan rather the ROC. They don't really see much of a connection anymore like their parents and grandparents who fled from the mainland in the 50's.

It's becoming a dangerous game of chicken at this point. I believe the CCP are okay with KMT back in power and maintaining the status quo, but if Tsai's party wins the election, we might see further escalations on both sides.

Tsai is quite strategic with her moves too, she toned down on the direct independence talk, but is doing little things that is getting the Taiwanese Government more recognition globally.

 

I'm pretty sure everyone knows this. That's literally the only reason we're even having the discussion? If Taiwan didn't control 90>% of the advanced chips market we wouldn't even be having this discussion?

Who in the west doesn't know China taking over Taiwan would cripple our economy?

 

We're too late. Apparently they've already invaded NYC.

[BBC]FBI makes arrests over alleged secret Chinese 'police stations' in New York

 

These things are all over the world. They have them here in Canada too. There's one of these 5 minutes away from me. It's basically just a random suburban house where the CCP brings people for questioning. I live in a majority Chinese neighborhood so the CCP is definitely around here. Its pretty open that the CCP also interfered in the federal and provincial election in my area (along with several other ridings with large Chinese populations).

I'm really glad the US is doing something about it. Hopefully, others do the same.

 

A huge percentage of people don't know this, including some fairly well educated people I have had conversations with.

 

It’s the only reason that the idiot Gelsinger is even allowed to be… He argues to bring foundries back but intel **** the bed so hard it’s difficult o believe in them ever again. Meanwhile, a hardcore to moving massive manufacturing to Mexico could kill many birds… **** china

 

This matches what I’ve seen of Taiwan and heard from. The KMT would certainly try to reduce tensions but Tsai tried that too. The KMT seem like they are more willing to appease the PRC. While there are certainly Taiwanese who want to avoid conflict at all cost I don’t think most Taiwanese countries think they way.