Is China invading Taiwan inevitable and what will US defend it??

I've thought a bit about this, and I do think that no... the US would not engage militarily directly with the Chinese.... .BUT... I do think that China does worry about the consequences regardless which is that the world would collapse the Chinese economy by manufacturing their own goods either domestically or in another country such as Mexico or Indonesia. China knows their economy is propped up by the West exports on goods which are not essential survival goods, and the basic raw materials can be produced anywhere.

I think the US would let China level Taiwan, but the US and the rest of the West would be able to destroy their economy if they wanted to and China would essentially be bombing and killing for no reason. Yes the US and the West would be hurt by inflation with the supply cut off from Taiwan and China, but Covid has seemed to awaken the US in understanding our vulnerabilities to the supply chain, and figuring out ways to diversify our imports, and the need to expedite a domestic semiconductor industry (see CHIPS bill).

In the end, we are the #1 customer of China's, and all of their other customers sans Russia would follow suite if we pulled back from buying their crap. They would be dumb to not realize that, and realize that invading Taiwan would only be ceremonial long term, and would destroy their economy.

 

That is why the US is forcing TSMC and other chip manufacturers to build in the US, all the major chip players will have plants in the US within five years. I think eventually Taiwan not matter nearly as much in the future (10 year is my guess).

 

Question is will it be worth it 5 to 7 years from now when our current investments in semiconductors start paying off here domestically? I don't think it will...

 

She went and visited Taiwan after being invited by Taiwanese leaders..... They are an ally of the USA.

It isn't as if she stuck a flag in the ground and claimed it for the USA.

The CCP is so extreme and we have heard it for so long that we are now upset over a visit.

 

I still see Americans thinking they'll come off smelling like roses in the event of a dramatic economic war. You can't "cut off" China trade like we did with Russia. I guess people feel comfortable with the idea that they'll be worse of than we would, as if it's some upper hand and position of strength.

The bottom line is that hot war would soon follow in the event of embargoes and cutoffs because markets and treasuries would be nuked at that point. We think covid shutdowns were bad for trade but this is like ten covid shutdowns on the supply chain.

Most of the industrialized world is heavily indebted to the point where they can't choose sides or quickly adjust to iron curtains like what happened post WW2.

More like this would be the reset from pre WW2 when the debt levels for the powers then were also historically high.

 

We have to diversify the supply chain from China. I know those jobs aren't coming back here for the most part but maybe we can incentivize companies to setup shop in other places.

 

China is going through some internal economic struggles due to its over reliance on the housing sector/construction plus the effects of its Covid Zero policy.

Seems like all this saber rattling is more for its own people. I think Ukraine and it’s own internal issues will make China have more patience. Then again, the complete opposite is also true…. Now is the time to strike with all the global chaos.

 

Yeah, the leading edge foundry biz is low margin, high risk with winner-take-all stakes for at most 5 years.

If TSMC didn't deliver on that first (of many) Apple contract, it would've been Samsung that ballooned in market size.

I still think the CHIPs Bill is a big swindle. Pretty sure Intel didn't hold any 17B European factory hostage like they did with an Ohio factory because the CHIPS bill was slow to pass.

https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/does-america-want-a-chips-for-buybacks-act
To strengthen the American semiconductor industry, Congress should condition additional funds on suspending stock buybacks

On June 8, 2021, the Senate approved $52 billion for the CHIPS for America Act, dedicated to supporting the U.S. semiconductor industry over the next decade. As of this writing, the Act awaits approval in the House of Representatives. Our INET working paper “Why the CHIPS Are Down,” documents in some detail a curious paradox: Most of the SIA corporate members now lobbying for the CHIPS for America Act have squandered past support that the U.S. semiconductor industry has received from the U.S. government for decades by using their corporate cash to do buybacks to boost their own companies’ stock prices. Among the SIA corporate signatories of a letter to President Biden in February 2021, the five largest stock repurchasers—Intel, IBM, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, and Broadcom—did a combined $249 billion in buybacks over the decade 2011-2020, equal to 71 percent of their profits and almost five times the subsidies over the next decade for which the SIA is lobbying.

In addition, among the members of the Semiconductors in America Coalition (SIAC), formed specifically in May 2021 to lobby Congress for the passage of the CHIPS for America Act, are Apple, Microsoft, Cisco, and Google. These four firms spent a combined $633 billion on buybacks during 2011-2020. That is about 12 times the government subsidies provided under the CHIPS for America Act to support semiconductor fabrication in the United States in the upcoming decade. Do these companies need $52 billion in subsidies from U.S. taxpayers to give them incentives to invest in semiconductor fabs?

The main purpose of these hundreds of billions of dollars in buybacks has been to give boosts to the stock prices of the repurchasing companies. As a result of buybacks, a company’s stock price increases a) if, as is typically the case, stock traders bid up the price when a company announces a repurchase program giving the CEO and CFO the authority (but not the obligation) to do a certain value of open-market repurchases (say, $10 billion) over a certain time period (say, three years); b) when, at the direction of the CFO, the actual execution of buybacks by the company’s broker on any particular day or series of days increases the market demand for the company’s shares; and c) if, with the release of the company’s quarterly financial report, the increase in the company’s earnings per share (EPS) because of the reduction in shares outstanding prompts stock traders to bid up the price of the company’s stock even more.

From October 2012 through June 2021, Apple alone spent an astounding $444 billion on buybacks, equal to 87 percent of its net income. That is in addition to another $114 billion paid out as dividends, representing an additional 22 percent of net income, over these eight and three-quarter years. With just a fraction of those funds wasted on buybacks, Apple could have invested directly in a state-of-the-art fab to produce its own chips on U.S. soil.
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Since Congress loves stocks and no recourse insider trading, it's win-win for everyone. National Security trickles down. No one foots the bill.

Any talks of Wealth Transfers From Poor to Rich are just haters of job creators and unpatriotic China lovers.

 

Shaking my head vigorously..

 

US aint doing jack sht. The saudi had a hand on 9/11 and was recently caught executing an american journalist. What did we do? nothing. We recently had joe biden fist bumping the prince who ordered the hit.

Money talks and when push comes to shove, US is gonna formally protest while watch and do nothing as china take over Taiwan if that ever happens.

 

What do you think MSM is for America?

 

MSM = government friendly news? Is that your point?

 

Then China would have already gone through with it.

 

Sooner or later it's gonna happen. u think China is afraid of US? do u also think we are gonna go to war with China over Taiwan?

 

Alright CCP platinum member calm it down, the question is IF Taiwan is worth defending by 2030 or not. We sure as hell aren't worried about the CCP and their people making bank runs with tanks in the street against their own citizens. We do what we need to when we want and the CCP isn't gonna change that.

The sooner we get manufacturing out of China and into other countries with cheap labor the better. China is built on our pocketbook...****ing Nixon.

 

I never said we are scared of the Chinese, it's just time and time again the US politics have been shown to cater to those nations with money.

Our country caters to Israel even though they are literally committing genocide vs the Palestine people, fist bump Saudi prince and etc etc.

If China does invade Taiwan, and it's only a matter of time, I don't think US is gonna go to war with China over that.

 

Clearly China is afraid of the US military. They didn't militarize islands and create artificial ones to keep out the Japanese.

I really don't know if the US would go to war over Taiwan. Eventually you will have to stand up to them.

 

Or nations with strategic value/resources.