Is China invading Taiwan inevitable and what will US defend it??

I said many people are reporting it; I didn't say it was true,

 

Trump's future response/policy is the most unpredictable. He doesn't want war and doesn't believe human rights issues should get in the way of business, but he also let Peter Navarro create a China policy we're still using. He'll also know that if China get's Taiwan mostly unscathed like HK, the US would be at their mercy of a critical resource. The political impact would be worse than Biden sleeping at the wheel when Kabul imploded.

A lot of the alliances Biden strengthened in NATO and the Pacific are designed to blunt China's manufacturing dominance. During Trump, the EU was content on trading with China and opposing his policies, but now they're more in line with US after Putin invaded Ukraine. Euros could have continued to play dumb with China and only punish Russia but took up expensive trade wars along with the US.

Who really knows what he'll do...

 

Taiwan is largely relevant due to their foundries. Once that issue has been resolved, Taiwan will go on the back burner. China is not gung-ho destroying Taiwan's manufacturing base. It has effectively become a race to see who can out innovate Taiwan's production.

Ultimately I believe its about an AI race, similar to the nuclear race. If TSMC is the main source for plutonium, the ultimate goal is to find a better solution than relying on any of TSMC's technology.

 

The CHIPS agreement the US has with TSMC was to build foundries (in steps) for current gen chips rather than the bleeding edge foundries that are 5 years ahead. The one planned in Arizona is having delays because the expertise, red tape and cultural differences (Americans want "work-life balance" at 1.7x the pay) makes operating expenses far higher in an industry where margins are razor thin.

It's not China that will destroy Taiwan's foundries but rather the US or Taiwan themselves.

Maybe a kinetic war with China will delay the birth of Skynet and our AI overlords?

 

ur not as informed on the AI chips as Invisible

 

Taiwans value isn’t just in chips but it’s also occupies a strategic position with major trade routes. The PRC controlling Taiwan means they can control access between the pacific and the South China Sea. It also puts them in a better position to threaten the Philippines with which they already have territorial disputes with.

 

Yes predicting Trump is difficult but based on his rhetoric and past actions would indicate he would abandon Taiwan. While he has made a lot of anti Chinese rhetoric and put in trade sanctions he doesn’t appear likely to be willing to commit to a major engagement against another major power.

Also we know that he has tried to build a personal relationship with Xi including flattering him. He also backed off on some
Sanctions when the PRC allowed for patents for Ivanka Trump products.

My own speculation is that if Trump is president the PRC will attempt a charm offensive towards Trump. Trump would likely be receptive to a deal with the PRC regarding Taiwans future.

 

If you want China to invade Taiwan, vote Trump-Vance 2024.

It's not really difficult to predict what Trump would do - he'd do the same he does for other dictators all the time - bend over backward to humiliate himself and the United States.

 

Yeah, and beyond needing nuance to deal with Taiwan, Trump just loves to bend the knee to strongmen. That must stem from daddy issues - idk and idc - but he'll fawn all over Xi (and Putin and thicc boy in DPRK).

 

I don't think China could even successfully invade Taiwan.

The logistical hurdles are immense.

 

Great so a lot of people are talking about something that isn’t verified. That is very helpful.

 

And a reminder to other Trump has president did little to bring back chip manufacturing. It’s under Biden that the US has made a major investment in bringing back chip manufacturing.

 

From what I’ve been reading the PRC are still a few years from likely being able to invade Taiwan successfully. While they have a massive numerical advantage being able to take Taiwan without completely flattening it is still a ways.

The PrC obviously could just nuke Taiwan but taking over a depopulated wasteland of an island isn’t in their interests.

 

Covid exposed a lot of supply chain issues that anyone with a reasonable iq knew already existed. The US government and its politics are either very slow to react or wait until it becomes a crisis. The fact is Trump was really pushing to bring those MFG jobs back to America. Most of America does not comprehend the vast shortage for manufacturing experience. I am not referring to manual labor. I am referring to the entire logistics of running a manufacture business. That is not to say America does not have any of that experience. Most of the talent is tied up in concentrated sectors. There is not enough experience to bring these jobs back. They are high tech manufacturing jobs, not rust belt manufacturing.

 

This is one of those instances where Taiwan needs to make their own decision. Either go to war and be wiped out or learn how to work better with China. US should be taking an advisory role for both sides, not actively participating.

 

read:

 

It's already begun.

In his latest rally speech he touted his relationships with China’s Xi Jinping, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, and Hungary’s Viktor Orban. He called the Chinese president a “great guy” and said he received a “beautiful note” from him following the assassination attempt.

 

Trump talked a big game but did little to bring manufacturing back. His vaunted Foxconn Wisconsin project did little to nothing and ended up a big boondoggle to the state of WI.

Yes COVId exposed a lot of weaknesses in supply chain but it wasn’t as though no one was talking anout this. Bringing back manufacturing jobs was a central tenet of MAGA in 2016 and under Trump the trade deficit increased.

 

Taiwan and the US are actually fine with the current state of ambiguity. While the PRC never liked it for much or recent history they were OK with it in practice.

 

Sure they could land troops doesn’t mean they can take it.