If he averages a little over 30 doubles this year and next, he would be 5th all time. He already has 8 so far this year. He could possibly top 700 (he has 612 currently) before he finally calls it quits, joining Tris Speaker, Pete Rose, Stan Musial, and Ty Cobb as the only players to ever accumulate 700 doubles in a career. As long as nothing happens this season or next, with 3000 hits and being 5th all time in doubles, I don't see any way he's not first ballot. What is that stat they always show during the game where they talk about the number of extra base hits he has? I always see the very end of it and never get to hear what it is.
The past years, Biggio has really tailed off towards the end of the year. I'd be very surprised if he can keep up the hitting this year. Even so, if he sticks around for another year and get 3000 hits, then he's a 1st ballot HOF. Because every baseball writer knows that 3000 hits is a monumental achievement, but 2900+ hits is not that big of a deal. Biggio's doubles, while saying quite a bit about his power, is just not that sexy a stat for voters.
Isn't he also near the top for leadoff homers as well. I think he's tops in the NL but I know Rickey Henderson leads all major leaguers but I'm not sure where exactly Biggio stacks up here.
i've never seen a team's performance in wins and losses more closely tied to one position player than the Astros were with Biggio in the late 90's.
What's crazy is that, to me at least, it seemed of the big two Astros Bagwell would be the easy choice into the HOF and Biggio might have to wait a few years. Bagwell had more "sexy" stats with the RBIs, homeruns, MVP, etc...while Craig smoothly and quietly accumulated tremendous, but less media focussed, stats of his own. But now with Bagwell's early exit from the game (most likely) and Craig's unexpected longevity...well, the roles will likely be reversed and Bagwell will have difficulty getting into the HOF since homeruns will be scrutinized much more in the near future due to steroid abuse...both were great defensive players at their position (w/ the aforementioned CF by Craig...which really shouldn't come into the equation except as proof that he was a team player), but if Craig gets his 3000 hits, I think he is a lock for the hall (not sure about first ballot...just have to see how his career ends).
if he gets 3,000 i guarantee you he'll be first ballot. if he's not, i'll buy you dinner at mcdonald's. even without 3,000, he's heading for the HOF....but 3,000 makes him a first ballot guy.
charlie pallilo put together some stats on bagwell. players who had 1500 rbi, 1500 runs, on base of over .400, and slugging over .750, and a fifth stat I can't remember, the only other guys with those numbers, ruth mantle gehrig honus wagner stan musial jimmie foxx bonds ted williams and a couple of others I can't remember. don't sell bagwell so short because he didn't hit 500 hrs.
Normally, I would say that is true, but with Rafael Palmeiro getting 3000 hits and having stats scrutinized due to the steroids link, I think people will view 3000 hits a little differently. While not fair to Biggio, I could see it happening...especially if Rafael doesn't get into the Hall because of the steroids. I hope that is not the case, though (Biggio, not Palmeiro).
I think people will look at it on a case by case basis. There is no indication, and never has been, that Biggio was ever on anything. Palmeiro is a different story. The guys on the radio did some analysis of the 3,000 hit club thing. In actuality, the number is more like 2,700 hits - or something less than 3,000. Everybody above that level is pretty much in the hall. 3,000 would guarantee first ballot, though.
