The problem is there’s no sure thing either way. If I think about it without research, my gut feeling tells me there’s as good a chance to get the superstar through trade as through the draft. There are very gloomy odds in the draft overall, let’s start with the lottery: Did you know that the team with the worst record has a greater chance of picking 4th than 1st? It’s very depressing when you go to a draft with the worst record and come out with Michael Beasly instead of Derrick Rose.
Do you honestly see Griffin as being a player like that to lead a team to a title? Cause I don't think so. I wouldn't bet on the Clippers being even a 1st round threat in the near future. And also, look at what usually happens when you try rebuilding through the draft. Memphis did it, and they got Rudy Gay, OJ Mayo, Mike Conely (with the 3rd pick). 3 top 10 picks and they are struggling to make the playoffs like us. Minnisota is trying and failing miserably. The Kings are trying and not getting anywhere so far. Indiana, Milwaukee, Charlotte have all been doing it for multiple seasons and have gotten no where (8th place finishes in the east with sub 40 win seasons). There are a few teams that have "successfully" done it. New Orleans, Portland, Utah, OKC, Chicago, Orlando. Orlando and OKC are the best of the 2 but either rape-traded their way to a contender or got a high pick in an epic draft. Portland has 3 top 5 picks and a little bad luck is going to put them in purgatory for 5 years. Utah, Chicago and NO are a 2nd round threat, only one level higher than what Houston is right now IMO. It's highly unlikely that we turn into San Antonio, Boston, or LA by rebuilding... and those 3 teams didn't even rebuild through the draft like the Clippers are right now.
He's only under contract for two more years. Can they go from a .300 team to a club he'd want to spend his career with in that span? Doubtful.
One more thing - we have 3 lotto picks from the last 2 drafts. Isn't that what tankers are wanting anyway?
How do you know Kevin Martin isn't one of these deals? Our youth, trade assets, and stockpiled picks haven't netted us anything so far. I thought we were going to be able to sign-and-trade Chris Bosh with them. Then I thought we were going to be able to land Carmelo with them. Now I find myself re-thinking this "omg we have so many [mediocre] assets!" plan. -It's an incredibly weak argument arguing that Kobe was traded, not drafted. That's just semantics. The fact is, the Lakers traded a 28 year old starting center (and a good one at that) for the rights to the 13th pick in the draft. That's called "trading production for potential," which several people have made clear they are vehemently against. -The Spurs TANKED to get Duncan. There were several reports that the Spurs vets were healthy enough to play toward the end of the season, but the Spurs didn't see the point in bringing them back to win meaningless games. -The Detroit team is a great example if you're talking about constructing a team of great/elite defenders AND great/elite offense players. Detroit was the #1 defense in the NBA.. the Rockets are one of the worst. Enough with the "build like Detroit!" ideas.. we'd have to deal two of Brooks/Scola/Martin just to get in guys who can actually play defense if we're building like DET did. -Nowitzki also a bad argument for same reason Kobe is. Fact that they were 'traded' and not 'drafted' is semantics. What about Morey's rebuilding plan leads you to believe it's intelligent? That seems premature considering we aren't close to having the final results, and what little results we have thus far are not positive (unable to get into the Carmelo talks). I mean, you use Terrence Williams as an example of something intelligent Morey has done and yet he's played exactly 0 minutes for us. Seems a bit premature for you to be calling people stupid for believing in other rebuilding ideas. He'll be a restricted free agent. He'll more than likely sign the max extension when it's time (ALL rookies do this). Even if he doesn't, the Clippers can match any contract he receives. The Clippers have a brighter future with Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon than we do with Kevin Martin and Luis Scola. We're the better overall team right now, but when the Lakers/Celtics fall off, Griffin will be the one to take their spot, not Kevin Martin. ------- For the record, I am not in favor of tanking because I don't believe in a team telling it's players to lose or purposely trying to lose by sitting out its best guys. That sends the wrong message to me. What I am in favor of is using our 'assets' to move up to a top five pick in the draft. And yes, that includes dealing Kevin Martin if there is someone we feel can be the difference maker available.
Actually, I've been thinking about this. We probably can't get a "star" player easily through trades. But I wonder how easy it would be to aquire a guy like Granger or Kaman in the next year or so. They are still young enough to be relevant for the next 3 seasons but old enough that the respective team might want to deal them for younger guys (think Hill, Patterson, etc) and good enough that not just any team with expirings and bench rotation guys can aquire them.
Here are some random things that also weigh AGAINST attempting to rebuilding by losing games and trying to get as high a draft pick as possible and IN FAVOR of staying the course (which has involved a lot of "rebuilding" already) and seeking to improve via trade: --LOTTERY ODDS: The team with the worst record in the league still only has a 25% chance at getting the #1 overall pick. By contrast, that same team has a 35.7% chance at getting the #4 overall pick. So, the Rockets could scrap it all, go 0-82 for a season and, in an NBA Draft with as many as three sure-fire franchise players, could STILL be left holding the bag with the fourth pick. --BIRD RIGHTS: It is highly unlikely that the new CBA will do away with Bird rights. This means that teams with several good young players on the roster (as in the case of the Rockets) will be able to re-sign as many of those players without regard to the salary cap, although with a potentially hefty luxury tax bill to be paid. By keeping this roster together, Morey and Les get to "pick and choose" who they want to keep long-term and who they'd rather trade. --RESTRICTED FREE AGENCY: You can be damn sure that restricted free agency will be carried over into the new CBA, if not bolstered from the current rules. The Rockets' roster includes many players who will be restricted free agents in coming years (Brooks in 2011; Lee and maybe Budinger [if Morey wants] in 2012; Hill and Williams in 2013; and Patterson in 2014). Starting over would likely involve dumping many of these players, who would be instrumental in winning games over the next few years. Having restricted free agents is yet another competitive advantage over starting over and having to fill in the gaps with unrestricted free agent signings. --THE SALARY CAP: Generally speaking, it looks like the salary cap will be lowered, potentially to a significant extent, in the new CBA. Given this new salary cap landscape, it may make the most sense for teams to try to stay ABOVE the salary cap, keeping its key players, re-signing them using their Bird rights, and using trades and any remaining available salary cap exceptions to stay competitive. Other than the rare "Miami 2010 Situation", most teams that open up copious amounts of cap room will end up being forced to use it like Detroit did in 2009. Ugh! --FREE AGENTS: What free agents are going to WANT to sign with a losing franchise, especially one that scrapped a nice young team, alienated one of the most venerable coaches in the league (Adelman), and obviously tanked their way to a top-5 pick or two? Not any elite free agents, I can tell you that. Meanwhile, as Morey has correctly pointed out on multiple occasions, all the top free agents don't sign outright but instead go via sign-and-trade. Lebron. Bosh. Amare. Boozer. All sign-and-trades. And even though all of their new teams had enough cap room to sign them, those guys could have just as easily been signed and traded to a team over the cap but that had enough in the way of outgoing assets to entice the player's old team to make the deal. For instance, if Bosh weren't such a douche and WANTED to come to Houston, I firmly believe that Toronto was on board with a Bosh sign-and-trade deal to Houston. I've got more of these. But I'm tired of defending what is so overwhelmingly the clear choice of the Rockets' organization. Tanking for high draft picks WILL NOT HAPPEN under Les Alexander and Daryl Morey. So just get over it already.
Oh, come on. The fact that it won't happen means we should just accept it and never debate its merits? That's silly. An organization doesn't become immune to criticism or second-guessing just because they decide to move forward in one direction vs. the other.
Fair enough. Debate its merits all you want. But if you're talking about what the Rockets ought to do, they've answered your inquiry already with a resounding "NO!" Also, you have repeatedly argued that the fact that the Divac-for-Kobe's-draft-rights trade was a trade and not a draft pick is "just semantics". But it's not. It's so utterly and completely not. The Lakers went 53-29 during the 1995-96 season. They did not tank. They won games. Then, they traded a player asset for a draft pick. That is COMPLETELY different than "rebuilding" by losing games. In fact, the Rockets have done EXACTLY what the 1996 Lakers did when they traded players for recent lottery or other first round picks. So, Morey doesn't get credit for TRADING for the Knicks' 2012 first rounder? Or TRADING for Jordan Hill or Courtney Lee or Terrence Williams, all recent lottery picks or otherwise desirable recent first round picks? That is NOT semantics. That is "rebuilding" without sacrificing a winning (or at least an earnest attempt at winning) culture.
i like what morey is doing he is adding talent to our team and teams are cooperating because we are not a treath in the league all we need is a star and i know morey is doing all he can to get one, why would we want to blow this up and tank, keep in mind even if he gives up talent morey is REALLY good at finding talent even without the draft (ish smith) I have a feeling that under Daryl Morey we might aswell forget about the word "tank" i dont think its gona happen as long as he is the gm.
We ARE rebuilding, just not tanking. I personally don't want to go through years of tanking if rebuilding can be done on the fly. I think Morey is the man to do it.
Depends how badly you want a championship. If you rebuild through the draft there is a massive chance that you will fail but if you get it right and draft that next franchise player you are one step closer. Sure we can trade for a superstar or sign one in the off season, even trade up picks but it won't be easy, we are not LA or NY and there is no guarantee that the superstars would consider signing/resigning with Houston, stars these days are not like Duncan or Yao who are loyal to their franchise. Right now we don't haven anyone that is a franchise player and our best player is a second option...All depends on how badly you want to win.
Their 10-23 record and continuous rebuilding year after year demonstrate the point that tanking does not guarantee anything.
I don't understand why people want to throw away a team that most likely will hover between 40 and 50 wins this year in order to be a sub 30 win team for the next 2-3 years (at best) with the chances of maybe getting back to being a solid 50 win team (as has been pointed out, the odds are against us). Are the Rockets so unwatchable right now?
Kevin Martin is not "one of those contracts" cuz teams (inclufing the Rockets and Mavs) had a lot of interest in getting him before the Kings made him available. This is not the case with Charlie V., Ben G and others.
Boy what a mess. Just semantics, really? Neither LA nor Dallas would have gotten Kobe and Nowitzki if the other teams didn’t AGREEE to a TRADE, it’s that simple. -In my opinion, the Spurs didn’t tank. They had to go through devastating injuries, a terrible start and an eventual firing of their coach, they didn’t even had the worst record that year, they got lucky in the lottery, Boston was all set on getting Duncan. Who’s talking about building a Detroit part deux? Please don’t bring my statements out of context. Just semantics, orly? :grin:
A. I'm happy we didn't get Chris Bosh. I wouldn't mind Carmelo, though, and I don't think we're out of the running there yet, anyways. You have to wait til the trade deadline before throwing your fits since like 95% of trades seem to happen just before that deadline. B. Those assets have gotten us to a solid record both last season and this season considering the circumstances... that's exactly why they're assets, because they're good enough to get us wins when we don't even have a clear core that we're building around. This season, I firmly believe we are better than our current record indicates, also. That is exactly my point, that we have already-good players that have the potential to lead us to even better things. So we're not "not going anywhere".
