Iranians may be ready to vote Ahmadinejad out of power

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Mousavi may be a martyr after today.

 

Unconfirmed, but the Army may be refusing orders to kill civilians.

 

Honestly, as long as the government uses non-violent means of crowd control I have absolutely no problem with it. I know the U.S. is working hard on these new vehicles which use heat-ray guns and effectively disperse crowds. At the end of the day, these daily mass protests are very hurtful to the economy and having the country go about its everyday business. The protests can't go on forever. I think the protesters have made their point, enough so that most people outside of Iran now will always consider Iranian elections to be a farce, regardless of whether or not they truly reflect the will of the majority.

I have said from the outset that it is very likely Ahmedinejad was the winner of the elections, although the margin may have been much smaller. People always make the mistake of confusing mass protests in Tehran or any other capital city as reflective of the will of the people, which is often not the case. The way I read it, most of these protesters were middle class and urban elite Tehranians who are completely disillusioned with the religious regime to begin with, and just happened to jump on the Mousavi bandwagon as a way to air their grievances. Perhaps, falling short of a revolution, this may still have positive impact moving forward on politics in Iran by forcing the government to liberalize and grant more freedoms across the board. This is certainly possible and I would even say likely.

I still doubt there will be a massive violent crackdown on protesters, unless (emphasis added) the protesters do get violent and force the government's hand, which I am afraid is already starting to happen here with these reports coming out of a terrorist bombing in Iran, likely by opposition forces.

 

I'll admit from photos and videos of what I've seen so far, I'm having a lot of trouble believing it's just 2 to 3 thousand protestors - especially since it has been apparantly confirmed that there are riots in Tabriz, Mashad, Ishafan, Ahwaz, and Shiraz, and with rumors of gunfire and stuff. Still seems quite chaotic.

 

I have to say, since most of the Iran coverage is dominated by Twitter updates from opposition supporters, I would be very careful to believe much of what is posted on there. I even read recently that various intelligence agencies from around the world are using Twitter to spread misinformation and mass confusion that may help tip these protests one way or the other. It is not a stretch to say that much of what we hear and read is exaggerated or outright manufactured.

I would bet against the government forces have full control of the situation in Tehran within the week. The Iranian government has been quite deft in structuring a multi-layered security force that would enable it to limit or eliminate the likelihood of a military revolt against its regime by creating forces that would effectively 'check' against any dissent in the main army or police force. Popular revolutions are damn near impossible in a modern national security state.

 

let me know if this looks like disinformation:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html

 

I feel bad for those who have died today. Unless everyone stands up in Iran within the next 48 hours, this will be all in vain.

 

NSFW Video
20th June: Tehran a girl dies getting shoot by Basij during the protest

Spoiler

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Beware. Definitely not for the faint of heart.

I'm not willing to say this is all in vain if the Islamic Republic doesn't fall in a few days. The initial pushback from the election by the public, the subsequent communications blackout & the violence from the government today have unleashed forces that will never go away. People are yearning for civil rights, liberty and freedom in Iran and will eventually get them. Iran has turned towards the road to freedom and the Islamic Republic has been exposed as a pathetic sham to their citizens.

 

I agree, presidential elections in Iran were one of the few ways Iranians could get their voices heard by the government, but now a lot of Iranians recognize that is no longer the case. Due to the events of the last couple days the theocratic regime we see today will probably not last another decade. Iran's very young population, where 60% of the population is under the age 30, wants the same basic rights they see in other countries.

 

I hope so, but may be not. Again, I would be careful generalizing the protests into national sentiments. The protests tell me one thing and one thing only: there is a sizable portion of the population that is unhappy. How big? I am not sure, but it is certainly enough to cause serious problems for the regime moving forward if they do not institute some reasonable reforms in the near future. Beyond that, we really do not know much else as far as how widespread or deep this dissatisfaction runs. What I do see in Iran today are deep class based and religious based divisions that the government itself seems to exploit quite well to its own advantage.

 

I have no way of knowing, that is precisely the point! In modern times, controlling the media or flow of information is essential during conflict. But certainly some of it might be. That page is basically a collection of twitter updates, nothing more.

All I am saying is we should be careful how we filter what is being reported to us, since few credible news organizations are able to verify much of what we read.

 

hopefully, our president now grasps this as well.

 

Rumors that there is a tank right near Azadi square.

 

videos of people with helicopter passing overhead looks like a helluva lot more than 2000-3000 people

 

My heart hurts for those in Iran right now.

 

absolutely...you're not alone in that, i promise

 

Gun control for the loss.

If the USMC called me back up and said we are going to help these people I would be on the first flight. I know it isn't the right thing to do politically but standing by as americans makes me feel sick when we are supposed to support freedom and free elections.

 

Unfortunately, I think it depends. You look at the China thing after Tiananmen Square and it was pretty effectively crushed. One major positive is the widespread access to media these days. Unless they have a permanant blocking of the internet, Iranians will see the details of what happened soon. But I think a gov't that effectively crushes an uprising is, in the short term at least, stronger than they were before.

 

That is so horrible. What kind of leader allows the use of deadly force on his own people?