Iranians may be ready to vote Ahmadinejad out of power

First of all, Kwame, I want to applaude the way you've debated. You've provided articles and evidence to back up your points. Others have as well, and it's made for some good discourse.

You are outnumbered in this fight, but you've stuck around and not taken anything too personally.

I disagree with your take on matters, but others have already made whatever points I would make, except one.

The threshold you require to buy that there was fraud seems too high. The majority of the country demonstrating? That isn't realistic.

In any circumstance the majority of the country most likely won't demonstrate. That doesn't mean that they don't support the demonstrations, or believe they were cheated. Could you really imagine more than half the population of an entire nation out on the streets at the same time?

I don't know that there's ever been protests with that kind of turnout.

 

Thanks for the kind words. I try to debate, but never disrespect anyone.

Maybe the threshold I'm requiring might be too high or it might not, but since post-revolutionary Iran has a good track record as far as elections are concerned, I think we would need to see some real, tangible evidence to conclude that the election was fraudulent. This is a very serious accusation so asking for some hardcore evidence is not too much in my view. Personally, I think people had made up their minds before the election that there was no way Ahmadinejad could win big and if he did, they were going to scream fraud.

Majority might've been too strong of a word, but during the Iranian Revolution there were nationwide protests, but we're not seeing a revolution here. All I've seen are large demonstrations in a couple of urban areas. That's it. I don't see how the media and the general public can use that as a barometer for how the entire nation feels. That's ridiculous, but it probably has more to do with wishful thinking and contempt towards the Iranian government more than anything else. Ahmadinejad has had a couple of large rallies since he was reelected too and had the largest rallies on the campaign trail (I posted a video that showed that). Maybe the people do feel they were cheated, but maybe they don't. No one, however, is willing to even entertain the idea that 6 out of 10 Iranians could've actually voted for Ahmadinejad.

Ultimately, if massive electoral fraud were to occur on such a grand scale something should be available as proof.

Like I said, I'm rapidly losing interest and this thread will probably go the way of the Battier threads. It'll get stale, repetitive, and people won't be changing their minds. People can believe what they want. A lot of people have challenged me and asked me questions so Ive had to post a lot in this thread, because I didn't want people to think I was ducking or dodging. It's unfortunate that I wasn't given the same courtesy when I asked my questions. If somebody wants to believe that they've achieved some type of internet victory, so be it. I don't care that much.

 

I just want to know who the people of Iran really want to run their country.

I repped both Sam and Kwame for bringing good discussion to the D&D on this subject.

 

Kwame,

Please just follow twitter. You will find 5-10 protesters in Amadinejad's own house lol

For all the cities I mentioned, at least thousands of people are protesting. Search protest and the name of each city I gave you. I'd rather not waste time on this foregone conclusion. Just join twitter. Start following @naseemfaqihi on twitter.

 

I guess your referring to me, huh? I just got home and wasn't able to use a computer very much for the last 24 hours. I explained I was a little short on time before I answered some of your questions.

I'll answer those missing questions now.

There might be some or there might not be any. We honestly just don't know. Ill expand on that toward the end of the post.

Probably because they voted for Ahmedinejad

See Mathlooms post about the protest in other Iranian cities.


Its a misconception that Adhmedinejads support base is in the rural countryside. If you look at the 2005 election where Ahmedinejad was first elected, then you will see that he garnered most of his votes in urban areas, most likely from the urban poor. Its quite possible that he raised his standing in the rural area's in the last couple years since many of his policies were aimed at them, but I posted an article earlier that cast doubt on his rural support for this election, which was summarily dismissed, even though the author has 30 years worth of research on rural Iran. The author's most recent publication is titled "Thirty Years of Islamic Revolution in Rural Iran”, so he probably knows what he is talking about. You can find pertinent information from the 2005 vote at this link.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/ahmadinejads-rural-votes.html

I think you are completely missing the reason why people are making such a big deal about the lack of press freedom in Iran. Its not about how Iran is depicted by western media, but its about the lack of freedom of information in general flowing from Iran. I understand why you see everything as speculation and conjecture, because a lot of it is. Most of the information coming out of Iran isn't from traditional sources we are use to, such as the first hand reporting from foreign journalist. Since the foreign media is banned from doing their jobs, most of the information coming out of Iran is coming from Iranian citizens, usually from blogs, twitters or facebook. Not the most ideal situation, but its better then having no information or solely relying on what the Iranian Government is saying. There's bound to be misinformation from both sides regarding those sources, so you have to be careful on what you can believe.

So if there are protest in the rural areas or in other cities, would we hear about it? If the Iranian state media isn't reporting it and foreign media isn't allowed to go around and confirm things, then you have to rely what is being said on the aforementioned sources and formulate your opinions from there.

As to why aren't more Iranians coming out in protest, they probably still remember what happened to the students that protested in 1999. This NYT article might add a few more reasons too.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/19/world/middleeast/19basij.html?_r=2&ref=global-home


Hopefully I didn't respond to somebody that doesn't care anymore.

Just wondering (if you still care)

Where are you getting most of your information from?

 

Kwame, you also choose one hell of a time to start losing interest, because things are either going to end soon or they will explode to new level we haven't seen.

http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1094245.html

 

This is bullcrap from a notoriously poor website.

I watched the entire sermon. There is no ultimatum.

Taking news from Haaretz is the polar opposite but (in terms of rationality) equivalent of taking news from Iran's state-owned news agencies.

 

To all + Kwame,

Nejad does have huge support in rural areas. He may have won in a fair battle.

However, any rigging of votes should disqualify him immediately.

The amount of outrage is huge. Improportionate to the alleged number of non-Ahmadinejad votes.

If you care to know the truth, follow twitter. However, if you are already losing interest, then your intentions re finding the truth are clear.

 

It was the first place I could find with info on Khamenei's sermon. And that first line did grab my attention. I also heard haaretz didn't have a good reputation, but didn't know it was that bad. But to their credit they never said it came from the sermon, probably speculation.

Anyways, whats your take on the sermon? I've only read little snippets. It sounded like some of the comments from Khamenei could have led to speculation about the alleged ultimatum.

 

My take is that a new, fair and independent election process should take place.

If it is determined that such a process is impossible in the country, then responsibility lies with the supreme leader to step down or take action.

Nothing rings truer than the following: If Ahmadinejad is right, he will not lose in a repeat. So what is there to worry about?

Theoretically speaking, Ahmedinejad is head and shouders above a margin of error so he should win outright if re-done.

In short, I want the Iranian people to get what they deserve, whatever that may be.

 

The Ayatollah is afraid.

 

this is all very fascinating. we may be on the precipice of a massive turning point in world history.





...or not. i sure hope this turns out well.

 

Well from what I can tell, none of that is going to happen. Khamenei pretty much gave a giant f**k you to all the protesters in his sermon today and declared Ahmedinejad the winner.

I found this quote to be quite ominous.
"I call on all to put an end to this method. ... If they don't, they will be held responsible for the chaos and the consequences."

Looks like the stage is set for a showdown tomorrow. No permit has been issued for the planned opposition rally tomorrow, which will allow police forces to come down hard on the protesters. Hopefully, we won't see a bloodbath tomorrow if the protesters continue to defy Khamenei.

 

Yeah - it looks like we're at that point of no return unless the protesters stand down today (unlikely). So this weekend is going to be the beginning-of-the-end one way or another.

 

I saw the following quote on twitter a whole bunch last week.




[rquoter]
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

- Mahatma Gandhi

[/rquoter]

So - for the first day or two they tried ignoring the protestors. Then Ahmadinejad started to mock them (the famous "you are dirt and dust" line that pissed everybody off)... So it looks like the protesters are about 1/2 way there, about to move on to stage three, right on schedule on the way to victory.

 

let it come down!

 

I don't understand this whole 'supreme commander' thing.
that sounds like a dictatorship.

 

The crackdown begins.

 

It looks like this is where its heading. I fear the streets of Tehran may be running with blood soon.