Iranians may be ready to vote Ahmadinejad out of power

Has the Lebanese imported thugs been confirmed? If so, I can't imagine anything the regime could do that would enrage the people more. Bringing in 5,000 foreigners to assault their own citizens. It is akin to the Hessians fighting the erstwhile colonists during our revolution. Hired foreign thugs unleashed on their own people... incredible.

 

So are you saying that no demonstrators have behaved violently or rioted or caused any sort of violence? Who's starting the fires and stuff? Who attacked a government building? Also, how many Arabs live in Iran?

Any comments on Israel censoring and throwing journalists in jail?

 

I'm not exactly sure what would qualify as absolute proof. Whatever that undeniable proof would be, I don’t think it exists currently (at least in a way that can be transmitted over the internet) but I've seen too many first hand accounts of people claiming to have seen/heard the Arabs and being shocked by it to believe otherwise. Similarly, I haven’t seen the corpses of the seven people killed at Teheran University on the 15th, but I have seen enough first hand accounts that I chalk it up as a pretty solid fact at this point.

It could still be a massive disinformation campaign, but I know that tons of people in Iran claim to have seen/heard them, and perhaps just as important, I do know that significant numbers of the protestors believe that it is true that some of the motorcycle thugs are non-Iranian Arabs.

 

There is not a single demonstrator who has killed or maimed anybody, with the exception of a handful of Basij who were beaten after attacking Tehran U students. Similarly, the motorcycles that were burned, were taken from thugs attacking peaceful protestors.

Certanly, the level of violence displayed by peaceful protestors when they weren't provoked, was significantly less than that displayed in the average city after an NBA championship. A couple of rocks thrown, and such. Very tame by any standard anywhere in the world.

The people who've seen them are all very specific in identifying them by the extremely thick Lebanese Arabic accents that liberally color their apparently very poor comprehension Farsi. This is how they can rule out the Iranian Arabs. And if they are confident is saying they aren't Iranians, I have to go with that.

As soon as I can figure out how this is relevant to electoral fraud in Iran, and resultant peaceful protests, I will look into it. Right now, the only relevance that I can think of is that you want to give Ahmadinejad a pass here because he dislikes the Zionists as much as you seem to?

 

I've heard differently. I've also seen pictures of cars being burned that belong to average every day Iranians and have heard about shops and stuff being looted. You spoke in absolute terms and said all the violence is being committed by the state. I don't think that's true. But at least you admit the protesters have been violent. Is there any proof that these people are Lebanese Arabs? Are you basing it off of what "people" are saying? Anonymous sources don't constitute proof. I saw you post an article saying that but it was like most other things in this thread full of conjecture.

Why do you think the media and posters here are ignoring these journalists being censored and jailed by Israel while, at the same time, expressing outrage over lack of press freedoms in Iran? These two things are happening in the same region at the same time. Also, where was all this outrage when Israel kills unarmed demonstrators?

Again, I have no problem with peaceful protests, but what do you think the Iranian government should do when protesters become violent and start rioting and looting?

Do you have any proof that the election was fraudulent or is it just speculation, assumptions, and conjecture on your part? Remember, the burden of proof is on the accuser. Last, since you're so concerned with the authenticity of Middle Eastern elections, what are your thoughts on this?

http://www.america.gov/st/washfile-english/2005/September/20050911120639lebahcb0.2090723.html

Remember, that billions of our dollars go to Egypt every year and help prop up that brutal dictatorship that's worse than Iran.

Hopefully, you'll answer all the questions this time.

 

I can't believe you are still trying to give mouth-to-mouth resuscitation to this dead horse.

Why do you think that the theocrats who run the country (and love ahmadinjad) freaking ordered a recount? Because of speculation and conjecture by a bunch of internet conspiracy theorists?

There is tons of statistical and anectdotal evidence supporting the inference of fraudulent results. Feel free to read some over on Nate silver's Fivethirtyeight.com - though I don't think it's going to make a difference in your case, as you appear to be more interested in defending a contrarian position.

 

Awesomeness. Your conjecture is heresay. Mine is proof. OK. I'll keep that in mind for the future.

Using your logic, since you've presented no absolute, notarised and countersigned proof, it can't have happened, and so the question irrelevant.

As soon as you post some questions that actually deal with real issues relevant to the thread, I'll be glad to.

 

First, the protesters aren't rioting violently. Other then the attack on the basij compound (this is where the first confirmed fatalities happened btw), which is understandable since they were brutalizing the protesters the night before, there have been no widespread destruction of personal property or violence by the protesters. The same can't be said about the supporters of Ahmedinejad. Its very apparent that you have a narrow view of whats going on in Iran right now.

Here are some of the violent rioters you keep referring to:
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The actions of the Iranian government suggest that they are trying to hide something, by restricting the freedom of information. Does the censoring the internet, cutting off sms messaging (which is the made mode of communicating for the opposition), barring foreign media from reporting on the events, only allowing state sponsored media to report the events, the arrest and detainment of hundreds of opposition members, letting Tehran University get attacked by basij thugs (rumors of dead students buried secretly) sound measured to you? I'm sure I missed some things, but I hope you get the gist.

I'm sure it wouldn't be as strong since Ahmadinejad is despised by the majority of the west. But I haven't heard of any western governments strongly condemning the elections. But we are talking about a hypothetical event that hasn't happened, so I see no point in talking about it further.

I agree with DD and Ottoman, I don't see what reporters in Palestine have anything do with elections going on in Iran. Go bump the one of the israeli palestinian threads if you want to talk about it.

 

I just had a thought about this in general. I think it's usually the case of one idiot (or group of idiots) escalating a situation beyond what is appropriate. Civilians or otherwise.

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What did that guy do before the beating? Maybe he should be detained. Is there a reason to continue beating him while he's unconscious? Is it necessary to hold up an AK47 to intimidate a crowd when emotions are already running high? Does he plan to use it? Are they even real police?

All these questions are rhetorical, of course. No YouTube video has provided enough context to fully assess any situation in order to place blame, and there's no unbiased information otherwise. We work with twitter and whatever else we have.

This act is questionable (understatement):
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In this case it's HIGHLY likely that the motorists (police or vigilante?) disrupted what was otherwise a peaceful rally. But maybe there's a wake of looting and destruction behind the crowd we don't see, maybe they did start a fire back there somewhere - we don't have full context.

Personally, the only two facts I'm ready to accept are: (1) A subset of the population is unhappy and in the streets and (2) there's violence. Everything else is either likely, unlikely, or a superposition of our own hopes onto the situation.

Also, I was also wondering whether the government is really shutting cellphone service or if people are just overloading the towers. Their other actions - disallowing the press and filtering websites - don't help their case.

 

Didn't think you would answer them even though I explained why I thought they were relevant. But they're here and you can return to them anytime you want and attempt to answer them. I think you don't want to because it'll help expose the duplicity and hypocrisy of those who are outraged by lack of press freedoms in Iran yet ignore the censorship and arrest of journalists in Israel and those that are screaming about the supposed fraudulence of the election in Iran yet are silent when it comes to Egyptian "elections."

They probably ordered a recount to try and satisfy some of those people in the street. Will it satisfy you?

I've seen all the so-called evidence (heck I've even posted a lot of it) and nothing proves that this election was fraudulent. Is there a history of fraudulent elections in post-revolutionary Iran that I'm unaware of? Why aren't these protests occurring everywhere if the election was rigged? From what I've seen there haven't been many protests outside of Tehren and Isfehen. Could it be that this is just a small minority and the majority actually voted for Ahmadinejad? I guess the debate and the conditions of the debate have already been set in the west and if you think outside of this box then you're just an idiot or an antagonist or something. I've also learned that no incumbent candidate has ever lost a re-election bid since Iran got rid of its US-backed dictatorship.

 

There's thinking outside the box, and there is being willfully blind - you are being the latter and not the former when you continually claim that nobody has presented any evidence that it was fraudulent.

 

Since its never happened, its impossible? This fact isn't very surprising since candidates have to be approved by the Guardians Council in order for them to run. Thousands of candidates get rejected.

Also, what are you opinions on the article I posted a page back about Ahmadinejad's rural support?

 

Heres an interesting little blurb from the Huffington Post

Looks like Kwame is falling for the regimes propaganda

 

Wrong thread and not relevent to this discussion.

If Ahmadinejad wins by a fair count etc, then I doubt anyone in the West would say anything, it is the Iranian people's vote that counts, not ours.

If that is happening in Iran, I think it sucks.

No no, just the corrupt Mullahs that are unelected and are oppressing their people in the fallacy that it is dictated from God. Get them out of the way and let people choose their own way, which includes worshiping as a Muslim, Christian, Jew, or not at all.

All people should be free from oppressive governments like Iran's don't you agree Kwame?

DD

 

I'm don't think it's very useful, because he's taking his experience in one village with 850 households, applying it to 35% of the population, and somehow trying to make a generlizable argument that we should question Iranian rural support for Ahmadinejad. At best it's an isolated case or anecdotal. But lets say he's correct. If so, then why haven't there been any massive protests in the countryside against Mahmoud? As a matter of fact, from what I've read and seen, there haven't been many protests outside of Tehren and Isfehen and the people that are conducting those are mostly urban youth. Why aren't the poor and lower class Iranians rising up? Why aren't these protests occurring everywhere if the majority believe the election was rigged? If I'm wrong, please educate me. My desire here is to learn.

I still would like to answer these questions as well instead of dismissing them:

I'm assuming your concerned about the authenticity of this election since you're posting in this thread. What are you thoughts on this?

http://www.america.gov/st/washfile-english/2005/September/20050911120639lebahcb0.2090723.html

Also, why do you think the media and posters here are ignoring these journalists being censored and jailed while, at the same time, expressing outrage over lack of press freedoms in Iran? These two things are happening in the same region at the same time.

http://cpj.org/2009/06/israel-sentences-two-to-prison-terms-for-censorshi.php

Last, what do you think the Iranian government should do if/when protesters become violent and start rioting?

On the video you posted, maybe some of that stuff is occurring or maybe its not, but the video and "analysis" just give us more conjecture and no proof or evidence. All governments lie, but you and Ottomaton's assertion that none of these protesters haven't perpetrated violence and/or rioters is difficult to believe. If they haven't, why has the Mousavi camp asked them to be peaceful? I'm not even familiar enough with the Iranian government to look for their sources and "fall" for their propaganda as you claim.

I've asked a lot of questions here (7 total), but my goal is to learn and I've answered your questions. Hopefully you won't pull an Ottomaton and not answer mine.

 

I dont have a lot of time since i have to make a 3 hour drive in about 20 minutes, but ill try to breeze over them. Maybe more in depth once i get to where im going.

Its no secret Egypt has an authoritarian regime that is supported by the US. I don't see why it surprises you at all, the US has always maintained hypocritical foreign policies, just look at Saudi Arabia, the royal family wouldn't even be in power if it wasn't for the US. Better Mubarak then the Muslim Brotherhood. The US has nothing do with the Iranian elections, other then having a preference on who they want to deal with. Obama has been careful with his words, since he will likely have to negotiate or deal with Ahmadinejad in the future. I think you mentioned something about billions in aid to Egypt earlier. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the US required to give aid to Egypt, along with Israel and Jordan, due to the Camp David Accords.

Ive already stated I think it has no relevance with the Iranian election. But if you really want to know, it sucks, but Israel is going to do whatever they want.

I'll admit there was some violence in the first day or two between protesters and riot police, but it was pretty standard stuff. Riot police has to do their job and protesters always resist, but i wouldn't call the protesters as being violent rioters destroying everything in their path.

Mousavi has asked for the protesters to be peaceful ever since he got released from his rumored house arrest, and the protest have been for the most part. Look at the videos I posted earlier, they are of the most recent protests . Mousavi isn't some revolutionary who wants to bring down the regime, if he was then he would never been allowed to run by the Guardian Council, he still believes in the Islamic Republic.

 

actually, i am surprised people aren't going on strike. That would bring down the gov't to it's knees.

 

Sorry just have to correct this because I live RIGHT next to Iran and have tons of Iranian friends in and outside Iran.

There have been huge massive protests everywhere in the country. People have been shot dead. Protests have been going on in (excuse the spelling):

Tehran
Shiraz
Isfahan
Yazd
Qazvin
Rasht
Hamedan

Those are just major ones. Nevermind the international ones in Turkey, the US, Canada, Dubai and all over Europe.

In Iran, some form of protest has taken place everywhere except for the Mullah stronghold city of Qom.

You are humongously underestimating what is going on. I suggest you join twitter because that is where all the news is being reported by people in Iran.

There is a reason why #cnnfail and #iranelection are/were trending topics. Because international media is blocked out, internet is heavily restricted, text messaging is virtually always shut down and telephone calls are almost impossible.

It has become less and less violent since yesterday, but up until yesterday, this was the largest demonstration of ANYTHING since the 1979 revolution.

In this case, even if Ahmedinejjad won fair and square the supreme leader has to think about whether they have put forth the right candidates because it seems like at least 20 million people are unhappy and over 1 million are willing to risk their lives to show it.

 

Iran Updates

Reza Aslan appeared on MSNBC's Rachel Maddow Show tonight, and laid out the importance of what is going to happen:

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i want to believe the hype