Yes those are their intentions. I don't see much of an international crisis. As I already stated the world doesn't seem to care much about whats going on, the UN couldn't even issue a statement condemning Iran on their actions. Theres no bellicose rhetoric coming from either the UK nor the US, no threats of force or new mobilizations. The 2nd carrier battle group doesn't count since they were coming no matter what. Both sides know this is going to be resolved through diplomatic pressure. Regarding propaganda, just look at the previous actions in 04 with the sailors they took hostage, parading them around Tehran and forcing them to say it was their fault. They're doing the same thing now, forcing the female soldier to write letters saying they shouldn't be in Iraq, saying that they were in Iranian waters, saying they're going to put the British servicemen and women on trial for espionage, trying to force the British into saying it was their fault. Those aren't actions of a nation that made a mistake and now trying to find a simple resolution. The Iranian regime knows its losing the support of the people with their nutjob president, this is just one way of keeping their people in line. Are you in the Royal Naval? Or any navy? I'm not trying to make this personal, but your making quite a few assumptions. There has been a UN mandated force that has been patrolling the waters off Iraq since the invasion, possibly even before. This was routine inspection that probably has been conducted hundreds of times before. You make it seem like it required monumental preparation and planning by the Iranians, I bet you the Iranians know exactly what is going on across their side of the line everyday, its not like Iraq has a vast amount of territorial waters. You don't think Iran doesn't already have naval assets in place watching the coalition forces? Without being their or knowing the procedures of the RN I cant comment on why there wasn't a chopper covering the boarding party. Looking at the video Iran just released today, there was a chopper on site, It could have been either Iranian or Bristish. If It was a British chopper then they werent in a position to do anything. Like you I'm making a few assumptions, but they're just as likely as yours, if not more likely. Iran has plenty of motive to take this course of action as explained at the beginning of my post. As already explained there hasn't been much reaction from the international community over this. Both the US and UK administrations don't have much credibility around the globe due to the fiasco that is Iraq. Iran has already threatened the kidnapping of American and British servicemen in response to the recent defections, arrest and disappearance of their personnel outside of Iran. Seems to me they just made good on that treat. If Iran made a simple mistake they could have just released the servicemen, quick and easy. Or they could have just paraded them around Tehran like last time and then release them to save face. What may seem irrational to us, might not seem irrational to them.
I agree with him New Yorker. You seem to be making this way overcomplicated. Whatever your opinion, why you cannot see any possible motive for why Iran would do this is strange. It just isn't that hard.
Those sailors will say anything to get out of Iran now. I can't say I blame them. Who would want to be in that crazy-run country? They probably fear being beheaded. Some people over there are even calling to execute them as spies. I don't see Iran ever having normal relations with the rest of the world. Their always going to be this defiant pariah on steroids.
According to the Iranian video that was a British chopper and I haven't heard the Brits say otherwise so that seems likely that it was. Its understandable why a Brit copter wouldn't fire on the Iranians after they had captured the marines and sailors but I'm wondering if they fired warning shots at the Iranians when they crossed the border and were approaching the Royal Marines? It seems stranger to me that the Brits were captured when they had air support that could've warned off the Iranians or delayed them enough for the Brits to get back to the HMS Cornwall? I think there is a lot we don't know what happened. In regard to your argument that this was a calculated move by the Iranians that's possible but even though I posted my own conspiracy theory I don't put too much stock in a conspiracy either way. Their are definately people in Iran that stand to politically gain from this but so are some in the Coalition. Right now this situation seems confused on both sides. I'm still thinking that likely this might've been a mistake by the Iranians, possibly they don't have as good GPS and might've thought they were in Iranian waters, but now that it has happened they are looking for face saving measures and are responding on the fly to British and international pressure.
I'm not defending Iran in any way whatsoever here but... The prisoners definitely won't be beheaded. The Iran regime is NOT Al-Qaeda; they are mortal enemies with them and will not do anything to be associated with Al-Qaeda. One your other point, I hope you are wrong but you may be correct. Some of us think Iran is a salvageable country that should be a natural ally of the U.S. Things won't change overnight but it's possible.
The intentions of these actions are most probably internal to Iran rather than external. Look, the sovereignty of Iran from external forces is bulletproof, It is a large populous nation with good natural defenses, a competent military and most importantly, it has a major influence on the the primary commodity the world depends on. From what Iran produces and it's proximity to the main shipping route of most of the world's oil, hostilities with Iran would cause a world wide depression. Short of an attack by Iran on another nation (ala Kuwait) the West could not engage in a hot war. The only real threat to the Islamic rulers of Iran are the youth of their own nation and what the cold war of engagement does, is cement the current collection of Mullahs in their seats of power. It creates nationalism and xenophobia and that puts a lid on dissent and reform. The percetion of Iran's rise as a world power within it's borders imbues every citizen with pride, like winning Super Bowls makes all Texans Cowboy fans. Walking the edge of confrontation keeps them in power and I believe they calculate every step of it. Only Israel provides the possibe wild card and the should be reined in by American for any actions not contigous to their own borders. So get use to it, it will be the same type of relationship as we had with the Soviet Union for 50 years and will only change from inside Iran.
What would happen...just for argument's sake...if one of the "prisoners" committed suicide in Iranian custody?
If one of the prisoners dies in custody for any reason then this incident becomes 10 times more serious than it is now. That would be catastrophic for everyone. My guess is one by-product would be fairly quick release of the others. The diplomatic fallout would be radioactive.
It would likely lead to military action. Briton would have no other choice. I don't think Iran will allow the soldiers safety to be compromised in anyway.
i dont know if its been said or not, but i almost am hoping for something bad to happen so we can blow the crap out of iran.
and to think, it wasn't me who said it this time. while i would generally agree, and would point to japan and germany as examples... 1) we, the US, are already bogged down and couldn't commit to help the UK. 2) as already mentioned, an attack on iran will likely only strengthen the mullah's rule. nationalism is powerful. 3) iran, for the most part is one of the more secular middle eastern countries, and if it weren't for the past 50 years of screw-ups by many different administrations we could be flying planes off their runways. 4) until there is an alternative fuel source, we can't afford to knock out 10% of the worlds oil.
Jr sticks his nose where it doesn't belong -- CAMP DAVID, Md. — President Bush on Saturday said Iran's capture of 15 British sailors and marines was "inexcusable" and called for Iran to "give back the hostages" immediately and unconditionally. Bush said Iran plucked the sailors out of Iraqi waters. Iran's president said Saturday they were in Iranian waters and called Britain and its allies "arrogant and selfish" for not apologizing for trespassing. "It's inexcusable behavior," Bush said at the Camp David presidential retreat, where he was meeting with the president of Brazil. "Iran must give back the hostages. They're innocent. They did nothing wrong." It was the first time that Bush had commented publicly on the captured Britons. Washington has taken a low-key approach to avoid aggravating tensions over the incident and shaking international resolve to get Iran to give up its uranium enrichment program. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20070331/bush
i completely disagree. i would expect if US sailors were taken hostage, Blair would be making a similar comment. the whole world should be condemning this. that's why the UK went to the UN with it. this whole thing has gone too far. turn over the damn sailors, already.
Even if we did what would you expect us to do? Drop a bomb on their location? A hostage rescue mission is extremely difficult and likely to result in the deaths of the hostages. At the moment there's no need to run one since its very unlikely they are under any harm. At the moment the only harm out of this is political.
